Within the coalition, there is a game of cat and mouse game going on, between the SLPP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) headed by former President Maithripala Sirisena. The latter has been unequivocally critical of the former, prompting speculation that a split, with the SLFP striking out on its own, is imminent.
That though hasn’t happened yet. A curious combination of factors keeps this unhealthy marriage going. Sirisena and the SLFP hold fourteen key seats in Parliament that will make or break the government’s two-thirds majority, and with it, the power to make or break and constitutional amendments. Why then doesn’t Sirisena call the government’s bluff and leave?
Sri Lankan politics is getting curiouser and curiouser both in the ranks of the ruling party and in the collective opposition.
For the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna(SLPP) led coalition, times couldn’t be any more difficult than what it is now. It probably holds the dubious distinction of being the most unpopular government at this stage of its tenure- jut two years after the presidential election.
There are two outstanding items on the government’s agenda which it would have preferred to have dealt with by now: holding provincial council elections and enacting a new Constitution. However, it cannot, simply because the government is so unpopular and any attempts to do would have disastrous consequences. Constitutional reform will lead to much resistance and the SLPP will certainly lose any elections if they are held now.
Within the coalition, there is a game of cat and mouse game going on, between the SLPP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) headed by former President Maithripala Sirisena. The latter has been unequivocally critical of the former, prompting speculation that a split, with the SLFP striking out on its own, is imminent.
That though hasn’t happened yet. A curious combination of factors keeps this unhealthy marriage going. Sirisena and the SLFP hold fourteen key seats in Parliament that will make or break the government’s two-thirds majority, and with it, the power to make or break and constitutional amendments. Why then doesn’t Sirisena call the government’s bluff and leave?
There is a reason for that too. The Presidential Commission into the Easter Sunday bombings, appointed ironically by Sirisena himself, recommended the institution of criminal proceedings against him. Should Sirisena decide to leave the ruling coalition, President Rajapaksa could make this happen.
By doing so, Rajapaksa will be killing two birds with one stone: he will be marginalisingSirisena without whom, the SLFP will be even more of a political non-entity than it is now. At the same time, Rajapaksa would be appeasing the influential Catholic Church which is now asking why those responsible for the Easter bombs are not being punished and raising their decibel level by the day.
So, the equation is evenly poised. For all the hot air that he lets out in voice cuts, Sirisena remains with the coalition for fear of being prosecuted and Rajapaksa is not keen to pursue that option while Sirisena remains within his ranks, not matter how much of an irritant he is. This uneasy détente was in evidence where Sirisena attended the Independence Day celebrations last Friday, was afforded a grand entrance and was acknowledged by Rajapaksa.
Matters are not any more clearly defined in the opposition. Undoubtedly, the largest opposition party in Parliament is the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). Therefore, it should follow that its prospective presidential candidate should be its leader Sajith Premadasa who is also the Leader of the Opposition.
That is hardly a foregone conclusion. There are murmurs that Patali Champika Ranawaka might be challenging Premadasa for the candidacy. The rumours gained currency after Ranawaka’s‘43rd Brigade’, an outfit that takes its name from the year free education was conceptualisedin what was then Ceylon, put forward an economic rescue plan for the country. The obvious question is, why didn’t Ranawakasubmit this to the SJB first? Is it because he wants to play the lead role, not content with being just a supporting actor?
For his part, Premadasa, by most estimates, has fallen short of expectations. He has shown neither the charisma nor the innovation that separates the great leaders from the mediocre. Trying to live off his surname, particularly when that surname evokes unpleasant memories for a significant portion of the population, is not the best option. The nation expected more from Sajith Premadasa. He hasn’t delivered, at least not yet.
Meanwhile, like Sirisena, Ranawaka also has a court case hanging over his political future. That is in relation to charges that he falsified evidence following a motor vehicle accident. Unlike Sirisena, that case is proceeding. Is that because the authorities prefer to deal with Premadasa than with Ranawaka? Time will tell.
Already, it is clear that there is little love lost between Premadasa and Ranawaka. They have been trading innuendos at each other without having a direct conflict. Only one person will benefit from such infighting within the SJB: Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
Then there is Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). There has been a strong sense of resentment among the voting public against the two major parties, previously the United National Party (UNP) and the SLFP, now re-incarnated as the SLPP and the SJB. There is also a corresponding groundswell of support for the JVP.
Dissanayake deserves some credit for this. He has been diligently and persistently presenting facts to the public and arguing his case in and out of Parliament. His hard work appears to be finally paying off and ‘AKD’ is being seriously spoken of as a presidential prospect.
Is he though? There is also a strong sense of déjà vu about all this. Many a time before, the JVP has flattered in its propaganda, raising expectations only to falter and flop at the polls. Even in 2019, the electorate expected much more from ‘AKD’ than the three per cent he polled.
At the general elections that followed, the SJB polled just 24 per cent of the vote, compared to the 42 percent that Sajith Premadasa polled as the UNP’s presidential candidate. The JVP’s share of the vote remained static at 3 per cent. The obvious explanation is that many disillusioned UNPers, angry with both the UNP and the SJB, stayed at home. Can ‘AKD’ attract all those disgruntled UNPers?
The maths indicate that this is a tough proposition. The JVP has to exponentially grow its vote from 3 per cent to 50 per cent plus one vote, at least. The jump required from the SJB is not as steep. Again, if both the SJB and the JVP are in the fray, it can only benefit one person: Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
A week, they say, is a long time in politics so three more years is almost an era. There can be many a slip between now and then but that will only make Sri Lanka’s politics more interesting as that time goes by. Rumblings within Sri Lanka’s political landscape getting curiouserand curiouser by the day
Sri Lankan politics is getting curiouser and curiouser both in the ranks of the ruling party and in the collective opposition.
For the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna(SLPP) led coalition, times couldn’t be any more difficult than what it is now. It probably holds the dubious distinction of being the most unpopular government at this stage of its tenure- just two years after the presidential election.
There are two outstanding items on the government’s agenda which it would have preferred to have dealt with by now: holding provincial council elections and enacting a new Constitution. However, it cannot, simply because the government is so unpopular and any attempts to do would have disastrous consequences. Constitutional reform will lead to much resistance and the SLPP will certainly lose any elections if they are held now.
Within the coalition, there is a game of cat and mouse game going on, between the SLPP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) headed by former President Maithripala Sirisena. The latter has been unequivocally critical of the former, prompting speculation that a split, with the SLFP striking out on its own, is imminent.
That though hasn’t happened yet. A curious combination of factors keeps this unhealthy marriage going. Sirisena and the SLFP hold fourteen key seats in Parliament that will make or break the government’s two-thirds majority, and with it, the power to make or break and constitutional amendments. Why then doesn’t Sirisena call the government’s bluff and leave?
There is a reason for that too. The Presidential Commission into the Easter Sunday bombings, appointed ironically by Sirisena himself, recommended the institution of criminal proceedings against him. Should Sirisena decide to leave the ruling coalition, President Rajapaksa could make this happen.
By doing so, Rajapaksa will be killing two birds with one stone: he will be marginalisingSirisena without whom, the SLFP will be even more of a political non-entity than it is now. At the same time, Rajapaksa would be appeasing the influential Catholic Church which is now asking why those responsible for the Easter bombs are not being punished and raising their decibel level by the day.
So, the equation is evenly poised. For all the hot air that he lets out in voice cuts, Sirisena remains with the coalition for fear of being prosecuted and Rajapaksa is not keen to pursue that option while Sirisena remains within his ranks, not matter how much of an irritant he is. This uneasy détente was in evidence where Sirisena attended the Independence Day celebrations last Friday, was afforded a grand entrance and was acknowledged by Rajapaksa.
Matters are not any more clearly defined in the opposition. Undoubtedly, the largest opposition party in Parliament is the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). Therefore, it should follow that its prospective presidential candidate should be its leader Sajith Premadasa who is also the Leader of the Opposition.
That is hardly a foregone conclusion. There are murmurs that Patali Champika Ranawaka might be challenging Premadasa for the candidacy. The rumours gained currency after Ranawaka’s‘43rd Brigade’, an outfit that takes its name from the year free education was conceptualisedin what was then Ceylon, put forward an economic rescue plan for the country. The obvious question is, why didn’t Ranawakasubmit this to the SJB first? Is it because he wants to play the lead role, not content with being just a supporting actor?
For his part, Premadasa, by most estimates, has fallen short of expectations. He has shown neither the charisma nor the innovation that separates the great leaders from the mediocre. Trying to live off his surname, particularly when that surname evokes unpleasant memories for a significant portion of the population, is not the best option. The nation expected more from Sajith Premadasa. He hasn’t delivered, at least not yet.
Meanwhile, like Sirisena, Ranawaka also has a court case hanging over his political future. That is in relation to charges that he falsified evidence following a motor vehicle accident. Unlike Sirisena, that case is proceeding. Is that because the authorities prefer to deal with Premadasa than with Ranawaka? Time will tell.
Already, it is clear that there is little love lost between Premadasa and Ranawaka. They have been trading innuendos at each other without having a direct conflict. Only one person will benefit from such infighting within the SJB: Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
Then there is Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). There has been a strong sense of resentment among the voting public against the two major parties, previously the United National Party (UNP) and the SLFP, now re-incarnated as the SLPP and the SJB. There is also a corresponding groundswell of support for the JVP.
Dissanayake deserves some credit for this. He has been diligently and persistently presenting facts to the public and arguing his case in and out of Parliament. His hard work appears to be finally paying off and ‘AKD’ is being seriously spoken of as a presidential prospect.
Is he though? There is also a strong sense of déjà vu about all this. Many a time before, the JVP has flattered in its propaganda, raising expectations only to falter and flop at the polls. Even in 2019, the electorate expected much more from ‘AKD’ than the three per cent he polled.
At the general elections that followed, the SJB polled just 24 per cent of the vote, compared to the 42 percent that Sajith Premadasa polled as the UNP’s presidential candidate. The JVP’s share of the vote remained static at 3 per cent. The obvious explanation is that many disillusioned UNPers, angry with both the UNP and the SJB, stayed at home. Can ‘AKD’ attract all those disgruntled UNPers?
The maths indicate that this is a tough proposition. The JVP has to exponentially grow its vote from 3 per cent to 50 per cent plus one vote, at least. The jump required from the SJB is not as steep. Again, if both the SJB and the JVP are in the fray, it can only benefit one person: Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
A week, they say, is a long time in politics so three more years is almost an era. There can be many a slip between now and then but that will only make Sri Lanka’s politics more interesting as that time goes by.
