After months of disagreements and weeks of speculation, Wimal Weerawansa and Udaya Gammanpila were unceremoniously sacked from the Cabinet by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa last week, at the behest of his brother and Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa.
Is this the beginning of the end for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) government and the Presidency of Gotabaya Rajapaksa? Or is it just one more meaningless political drama enacted for the benefit of the masses, when they have greater issues to contend with? The latter is more likely.
It is no secret that there is little love lost between Basil Rajapaksa and the Weerawansa and Gammanpila duo. That feud goes back to even before the formation of this government, to when Rajapaksa wielded unbridled power as Minister of Economic Development in brother Mahinda’s Cabinet.
Nevertheless, they came together shortly after Mahinda Rajapaksa’s surprising defeat to Maithripala Sirisena in 2015. The common denominator was their loyalty to Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Launching a movement to resurrect Mahinda Rajapaksa’s political career was Weerawansa’s and Gammnapila’s concept. They held the first ‘Mahinda sulanga’ rally at Nugegoda on February 18, 2015 just over a month after Rajapaksa was defeated at the presidential poll.
Perhaps buoyed by the success of that meeting, it was Basil Rajapaksa’s idea to form a separate political party. That eventuated only in late 2016, as Rajapaksa initially left the country in the aftermath of brother Mahinda’s defeat. When the SLPP was eventually born, it exceeded even Rajapaksa’s own expectations, sweeping the 2018 February local government elections, suggesting that greater rewards were in store in the future.
That did happen and although the SLPP won the August 2020 general elections, Basil Rajapaksa was very much a non-playing captain. That was because he remained a dual citizen of both the United States of America and Sri Lanka and couldn’t enter Parliament until the 20th Amendment was passed.
When the 20th Amendment- which allowed dual citizens to enter Parliament- was discussed Weerawansa and Gammanpila- and Vasudeva Nanayakkara- were at the forefront of opposing it. Even after it was passed and Basil Rajapaksa entered Parliament to be appointed Minister of Finance, the sniping between them continued, at times publicly.
While ideological differences -about economic policies- may have been at the root of the conflict, the dispute went deeper than that: Weerawansa and Gammanpila resented the immense authority that Basil Rajapaksa had and the fact that he had the ear of Gotabaya Rajapaksa who depended on him, much more than Mahinda Rajapaksa ever did.
For his part, Basil Rajapaksa made no moves to attempt a reconciliation. His attitude towards Weerawansa and Gammanpila was dismissive and arrogant. Naturally, the feud became more personal than being based on political differences alone.
When Weerawansa, Gammanpila and Nanayakkara filed fundamental rights applications against the sale of a stake of the Yugadanavi power plant to an American company, they were treading on thin ice. Three Cabinet ministers were objecting to a proposal agreed to by the Cabinet. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa expressed his displeasure, telling the media it was ‘wrong’ but even then, he didn’t remove them from their portfolios.
The last straw came last week when, at a meeting of eleven political parties, Weerawansa in particular unleashed a barrage of criticism on Basil Rajapaksa calling him ‘ignorant’ and ‘clueless’. Infuriated, Basil told brother Gotabaya ‘it is either them or me’. Even Mahinda could only watch as the President gave marching orders to Weerawansa and Gammanpila and retained his other brother.
What does this all mean though, to the balance of power in the country? Weerawansa and Gammanpila haven’t unveiled a plan yet saying they are in discussion with other parties. However, it is certain that the other two major opposition parties, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) want nothing to do with the rebelling former ministers.
The duo have been in discussions with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) though. Perhaps sensing this, President Rajapaksa met with a SLFP delegation on Tuesday. The top-level talks were held between brothers Mahinda, Gotabaya and Basil on one side and Sirisena, Nimal Siripala de Silva, Dayasiri Jayasekara and Duminda Dissanayake on the other.
In deciphering these developments, one must realise that Weerawansa and Gammanpila must have been fully aware that, with the kind of personal and vituperative comments they were making against Basil Rajapaksa, their position would have been untenable. No self-respecting President could have retained them in the Cabinet when they were so abusive towards another minister, who also happened to be his brother.
Weerawansa and Gammanpila are also not political idiots. They know only too well that contesting as separate political parties, the National Freedom Front (NFF) and the Pivithuru Hela Urumaya (PHU) will attract a few thousand votes at most- and they won’t stand a chance of re-election on their own steam.
They are also quite certain that neither the SJB nor the JVP will invite them with open arms. The differences in political policy as well as the personal hostility they have displayed towards these parties are just too much of a gap to bridge.
Why then have they embarked on a course of action which, at least superficially, appears to be politically suicidal? Is it because of their sheer love for this nation which they want to resurrect even at the cost of their political careers? We think not.
The ‘drama’ that was staged last week- for that is what it was- may have some underpinnings in reality such as Basil Rajapaksa’s dislike for Weerawansa and Gammanpila and vice versa but it also serves another useful purpose: it creates and opposition in the government itself. This ‘opposition’ will then claim they are fighting for a cause and agitating from within.
For the government, especially when its popularity is at such a low ebb, it is better to have this opposition from within its own ranks- which it can control to a large extent. Even if the SLFP does link with the rebels, they can still be part of that ‘opposition from within’. It will also prevent some disgruntled voters from migrating to the real opposition, the SJB and the JVP
Sri Lanka’s next major elections are nearly three long years away. That is ample time for many more plot twists and change of loyalties- and for people to forget Weerawansa’s and Gammanpila’s harsh words uttered last week.
So, if by that time the duo are back with the SLPP and smiling and handing over nominations for the next polls as one group- don’t be surprised. That may be the plan from the outset and we have only ourselves to blame if we fall for their current antics and believe that they are the saviours of our nation.
