From a government perspective, the protests should serve as the final warning. If they didn’t know it already, the public are not merely unhappy, they are livid. After Tuesday, the government should realisethat the next election will not be fought about the threat of terrorism or Sinhala Buddhist supremacy. Instead, it will be fought on the more mundane issue of the cost of living and, for a majority of Sri Lankans, the ability to make ends meet. It is as simple as that.
The government should also realise that Tuesday’s protest was like no other. It was not the first protest against an incumbent government and it won’t be the last but the anger against the regime was so real and palpable.
It is better late than never. This is what can be said about the protest launched on Tuesday by the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), the country’s ‘major’ opposition party, at least in terms of the number of MPs in Parliament.
For many months, there has been a considerable degree of angst not only among the general public but also within SJB ranks itself that the newly formed party was letting a golden opportunity to mobilise public opinion slip by.
The more specific complaint was that the leader of the party and Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa was adopting a passive attitude and not being proactive enough, believing that he would win the next elections by virtue of the government’s bungling and by having the right surname.
What we saw on Tuesday should put such concerns to rest. If Premadasa was in a political slumber all these months, he appears to have woken up with alacrity. Tuesday’s protests prove beyond doubt that the SJB can still muster a crowd and put on a show of strength- and that the government is immensely unpopular.
Nevertheless, Tuesday’s spectacle at the Presidential Secretariat has several important lessons- both for the government and the opposition and both camps would do well to learn from what happened.
From a government perspective, the protests should serve as the final warning. If they didn’t know it already, the publicly are not merely unhappy, they are livid. After Tuesday, the government should realise that the next election will not be fought about the threat of terrorism or Sinhala Buddhist supremacy. Instead, it will be fought on the more mundane issue of the cost of living and, for a majority of Sri Lankans, the ability to make ends meet. It is as simple as that.
The government should also realise that Tuesday’s protest was like no other. It was not the first protest against an incumbent government and it won’t be the last but the anger against the regime was so real and palpable. It was also the first time that protestors tried to storm the Presidential Secretariat, an act of defiance which protestors wouldn’t have dared to undertake against Gotabaya Rajapaksa two years ago.
The moral of the story for the government is, as the saying goes, ‘it’s the economy, stupid’. If that is not fixed by 2024, it can kiss goodbye to even the remotest chance of re-election, unless, of course, it resorts to some other undemocratic means of remaining in power.
The day though belonged to the SJB. Even if the scale of the protest and its success enabled the party to emerge once again as a worthy contender for the title of being the ‘government in waiting’, a single protest alone will not win them the next presidential or general election. There is much work to be done and, more importantly, three long years to sustain the momentum generated on Tuesday.
Right now, the SJB’s task has been made that much easier by the government’s pathetic lack of professionalism in dealing with the current crisis. For example, it didn’t take an expert in economics to predict the deficit in foreign exchange reserves. Yet, it was allowed to occur. There are shortages of several essential items- such as gas and fuel- and even where there are no shortages, prices are prohibitively high to make them out of reach to the average citizen. With a government in such a self-destructive mode, the SJB doesn’t have to do much to muster public support and sympathy.
The real challenge for the SJB lies in ensuring that it is the recipient of all of the public anger that was on display on Tuesday. That is because, while the SJB was in relative hibernation, at least two other players have entered the fray.
The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) remains a serious contender for the title of the premier opposition party, because its leading stalwarts carry no baggage of corruption, speak lucidly to the media and have been consistently saying that the two-party system has failed the country and that it is high time a ‘third party’ gets a chance. It is a chord that will resonate with at least some voters although the JVP’s history of armed struggles remain a significant drawback.
Also making a play for power now is the newly rejuvenated Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), led by the indefatigable and unpredictable Maithripala Sirisena. The party is now running with the hare and hunting with the hound. Its stalwarts remain in the Cabinet, they submit proposals to the President but at the same time they are talks with the dissident group led by Udaya Gammanpila and Wimal Weerawansa too. Come 2024, whose side they take is anybody’s guess.
If the SJB, the SLFP and the JVP all contest the 2024 presidential election against Gotabaya Rajapaksa (or any other Rajapaksa, for that matter), the opposition vote will be seriously split, giving Rajapaksa a fighting chance of still winning the election, even if it is on a second count. In 2015, Sirisena won only because the JVP didn’t contest and a similar scenario is required in 2024.
Perhaps most importantly for the SJB, its leaders must stand united at that time. It was encouraging to see Sarath Fonseka and Champika Ranawaka stand beside Sajith Premadasa when the latter made a short, impromptu speech at the protest. Both Fonseka and Ranawaka have been mentioned as potential rivals to Premadasa for the 2024 candidacy and both have at times been publicly critical of Premadasa’s actions. It is up to the SJB to pick the best man for the job but whoever is chosen must have the unqualified support of the others, if he is to succeed.
If Tuesday’s protest was throwing the first stone at this government, it was on target and caused some damage. However, the SJB has much work to do in rallying supporters and proving its credentials that it is indeed a viable alternative to the present regime. For that task to be completed, three years may not be too long a period of time.
