Once a soldier, always a soldier. Old habits die hard. Military officers talk tough even after entering civvy street. About two years ago, the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa read the riot act to a group of public officials responsible for a delay in the implementation of one of his directives. When they tried to give him chapter and verse on administrative and financial regulations, brushing aside their views, he simply declared that his word must take precedence over all government circulars, which he dismissed as worthless. It was his way or the highway!
Gotabaya’s military mindset was his strength; it was his weakness as well. Military officers, serving or in retirement, do not take ‘no’ for an answer and tend to bulldoze their way through. Gotabaya did just that when he embarked on his green agriculture experiment, and his obduracy proved to be his undoing. His reluctance to heed dissenting views, and weigh pros and cons of his decisions and policies cost him the coveted executive presidency.
Unguarded tongue
Another retired military officer who has ruined his prospects of success owing to his intransigence and unguarded tongue is former war-winning Army Commander Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka. He lost the 2010 presidential race mainly because he talked and acted like a military officer during his election campaign, and would fly off the handle on several occasions. With days to go for the polling day, he launched into a tirade against his main rival, President Mahinda Rajapaksa, and threatened to throw the latter behind bars first thing after securing the presidency. He also tore into one of his former allies, calling the latter names, issuing threats, and thereby putting off many voters.
When the going gets tough, the tough are said to get going. Now that the government under Ranil Wickremesinghe’s presidency has launched a hunt for the anti-government protesters after having a pre-dawn raid conducted on the Galle Face protest site, recently, some agitators are pulling out, and the JVP and the Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) have gone on the offensive.
The dramatic change in the government’s strategy—from defensive action to offensive action—seems to have prompted Field Marshal Fonseka to take the lead. He has come forward to boost the morale of the protesters and take the agitation campaign to the next level. He revealed his intention to do so during his speech in the parliament on the extension of Emergency, the other day; he called upon the people to get ready for the final battle on August 09. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned on May 09 due to public protests; Basil Rajapaksa resigned from the parliament on June 09 and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa undertook to quit on July 09 and tendered his resignation five days later. So, Fonseka seems to think that incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe could be got rid of in a similar manner on the ninth of next month.
Ranil no easy meat
Fonseka’s call to arms, so to speak, cannot be dismissed as mere rhetoric. He may not have spoken for the SJB, when he asked the people to take to the streets, but there is reason to believe that he will translate his words into deeds or at least try to do so and his party will support him. He was seen among the protesters who invaded the President’s House on July 09. He asked the members of the armed forces not to use force against the agitators, who, he said, were fighting for the country. Whether the military did as he said, one may not know, but his presence and exhortations pumped up the crowds beyond measure. Maybe, he thinks he will be able to mobilize the people under his own steam, and bring down the present government. But Wickremesinghe is no easy meat; he will not give up power easily unlike Gotabaya. How he is going to counter the threat of Fonseka leading a protest campaign remains to be seen.
Fonseka has proved that there are neither permanent friends nor permanent enemies in politics, and there are only permanent interests. In 2010, Wickremesinghe backed Fonseka’s presidential bid. He did so not out of a genuine desire to help Fonseka become the President; the war victory was still fresh in the minds of the people who abhorred the LTTE, and the then incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s popularity was at its zenith. Wickremesinghe knew he stood no chance whatsoever of beating Rajapaksa. He was also under pressure from a section of his party as well as the other members of the anti-Rajapaksa camp to field the war-winning General Fonseka as the Opposition’s common candidate. He complied. Today, Fonseka is all out to oust Wickremesinghe as the President, having voted for the latter in the parliament on June 20!
Fonseka will be able to take over the anti-government protest movement and steer it to a successful conclusion only if he can enlist the support of the SJB and other Opposition parties and convince the public that the struggle to be launched will be within the confines of democracy. Some of those who led the Galle Face protest campaign, such as the JVP and the FSP, have a history of violence, and the government is making the most of it to discredit them and scare the public.
The government is trying to justify coercive methods being employed to keep the Galle Face protesters at bay on the grounds that they are bent on plunging the country into anarchy. The police conducted a search on the FSP office in Nugegoda on Friday. Chief Government Whip Prasanna Ranatunga and several other SLPP MPs, during the recent Emergency debate, disparaged the protesters as drug addicts and anti-social elements. SLPP dissident Wimal Weerawansa has also been lashing out at the Galle Face agitators, calling them names. But it will not be possible for anyone to level such allegations if the main Opposition party mobilizes the people against the government, calling for a change.
The government has sought to put a bold face on Fonseka’s threat, but it is visibly shaken. A protest campaign led by the mainstream Opposition will be far more effective than a leaderless agitation, for those who lead it have an action plan or a political roadmap ready and know what to do next in case of their struggle succeeding. The Galle Face agitators were at a loss as to what should be done after ousting President Rajapaksa, and never expected the Rajapaksa family to strike back, and continue their rule under President Wickremesinghe.
Will history repeat itself?
The chances are that the country is going to witness a situation similar to the one during the last stages of President Ranasinghe Premadasa’s presidency. There was a mammoth protest campaign, and the Premadasa government also fought back determinedly and employed all suppressive measures in a bid to keep the Opposition in check, but to no avail.
Going by the huge SLFP-led May Day rally in 1993, the Opposition would have turned the tables on the Premadasa government if not for President Premadasa’s assassination, which had a claiming effect on the electorate, and enabled the beleaguered UNP to get a breather. Interim President D. B. Wijetunga managed the crisis, and ensured a smooth transition of power the following year, when the SLFP-led People’s Alliance formed a government. Unlike in the Premadasa era, the people are undergoing unbearable hardships at present, and the government has become extremely unpopular with not even its ardent supporters being bold enough to defend it in public. Its strength is now limited to the parliament, and it has postponed the Local Government elections for fear of losing them.
The only way the government can ward off the threat of another mass uprising is to eliminate the causes of public anger, mainly the scarcity of essentials, especially fuel. People have been going through hell, unable to obtain fuel and medicines. Hospitals are running out of lifesaving drugs, and many people are skipping meals due to the soaring cost of living. The country is heading for hyperinflation, and the government has not been able to do anything about it. The Opposition insists that the country will be without fuel after the current stocks are over. If the government tries to resort to coercion and force to neutralize the Opposition, there will be havoc, and the people will see messiahs in Fonseka and others involved in the anti-government protests. This seems to be Fonseka’s battle plan.
