Speculation is rife in political circles that the government has not abandoned its efforts to postpone the local government (LG) election again although it is in a spot where the election laws are concerned. When the Opposition claimed in the parliament, the other day, that the government’s plan to introduce electoral reforms was only a ruse to put off the LG polls, once again, some SLPP MPs sought to muddy the water. They, including Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, strove to obfuscate the issue by claiming that the SLPP was confident of winning the LG elections but electoral reforms had to be introduced to reduce the number of local councilors, which had risen to over 8,000 from some 4,000. They did not sound convincing because the government had more than two years to change the electoral system.
The Election Commission (EC) can now hold the LG elections, and it will have to do so soon because the local councils whose terms have been extended have to be reconstituted with elected representatives by March 20, 2023. The Opposition is mounting pressure on the EC to safeguard the people’s franchise by defeating the government’s efforts to postpone the polls.
That the government is wary of facing an electoral contest at this juncture is obvious. The SLPP and the UNP have come together to share power, for want of a better alternative, but there is no way they could contest an election together. They will have to vie with each other for votes come an election, and their unity will be the first casualty of the hustings if the devastating impact the 2018 LG polls had on the UNP-SLFP relations in the Yahapalana government is anything to go by. Both the UNP and the SLFP suffered huge setbacks, and parted company soon afterwards. The incumbent government is in a worse situation owing to the economic crisis and the suffering it has caused to the populace. Tax increases have sent both employees and employers reeling, and atop them have come unprecedented increases in electricity and water tariffs. Minister of Power and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera has recently told the parliament that there will have to be another increase in electricity prices for the Ceylon Electricity Board to break even.
Ill-effects of poll postponements
Former Minister and SLPP MP Chandima Weerakkody, taking part in the ongoing budget debate, on Thursday, urged the SLPP to hold the LG polls without further delay, and warned that the government would be mistaken if it thought it would be able to avoid electoral defeats by postponing elections; no government had been able to do so in the past, he noted, citing the fate of the SLFP-led United Front government, which postponed a general election by two years in 1970 only to be reduced to a mere eight seats at the 1977 parliamentary polls. Democracy also suffered a crippling blow at the hands of the UNP thanks to the SLFP’s humiliating loss; the UNP obtained a five-sixths majority and abused it in every conceivable manner to debilitate the Opposition further and rule the country according to the whims and fancies of President J. R. Jayewardene, who boasted that the only thing he was not capable of doing as the Executive President was to make a man a woman and vice versa.
Democracy suffered another blow in 1982. Having won a second term, President Jayewardene did not want to hold the general election due in that year because he knew he would lose his steamroller majority in the parliament even if the UNP won, for the parliamentary polls had to be held under the Proportional Representation system, according to the 1978 Constitution. So, he held a referendum instead purportedly to consult the people whether they wanted a general election or an extension of the life of the existing parliament. It rigged the referendum heavily and obtained the result it desired. It however lost in 18 seats, where by-elections were held in 1983. It managed to bag 14 out those seats by attacking the Opposition activists, stuffing ballot boxes and chasing away polling agents of its rivals. It lost to the SLFP and MEP in four constituencies—Matugama, Akmeemana, Baddegama and Maharagama. Weerakkody’s maternal uncle, Amarasiri Dodangoda, became the MP for Baddegama while Richard Pathirana, Anil Moonesinghe and Dinesh Gunawardena (MEP) won Akmeemana, Matugama and Maharagama respectively. It is believed that the outcome of the referendum would have been different if it had been free and fair, and the Opposition would have won the majority of the seats at the by-elections that followed but for large-scale rigging and violence.
Democracy endangered
The heavily-rigged referendum (1982) paved the way for the second JVP uprising. JVP leader Rohana Wijeweera moved courts against the result of the referendum and obtained a judicial order to preserve dossiers of documents related to the referendum. President Jayewardene did not want to leave anything to chance. He knew most of the charges against the government were provable in courts. He therefore falsely accused the JVP of being involved in the anti-Tamil pogrom in 1983 and proscribed it, forcing Wijeweera to go underground and launch the second JVP uprising, which plunged the country into a bloodbath. The JVP’s case against the outcome of the referendum was dismissed as the interrogatories sent by the courts went unanswered!
In 1987, the JVP’s second uprising gained momentum and President Jayewardene survived an attempt on his life. A hand grenade was lobbed into a committee room of the parliament while a UNP group meeting was in progress. A JVP activist was arrested, prosecuted and jailed for the crime. Countless UNPers, JVP activists, Opposition politicians and civilians including schoolchildren perished in the conflict. The military, JVP hit squads and vigilantes went on a killing spree.
If the 1982 parliamentary election had been held on schedule, so much pressure would not have built up in the polity for the JVP to tap to fuel its insurrection. The Indo-Lanka Peace Accord and the formation of the Provincial Councils also helped the JVP mobilize the youth in large numbers. Properties, both private and public, worth billions of rupees were destroyed in the conflict. That was the price the country had to pay for not allowing a general election to function as a safety valve.
Yahapalana govt.’s fear of polls
The Yahapalana government betrayed its fear of elections by postponing the Provincial Council (PC) polls in 2017 in the most deplorable manner; it amended the Provincial Council Elections Act for that purpose. It shamelessly smuggled in some sections into the Bill at the committee stage without judicial sanction, and amended the law with the help of the JVP and the TNA. But the following year, both the UNP and the SLFP were trounced at the LG polls, and the SLPP, which was formed in 2016 scored a stunning victory and went on to win the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019 and 2020 respectively. If the Yahapalana government had held the PC polls, it would have suffered an electoral setback but it would have had ample time to work on its mistakes and regain public support before the presidential and parliamentary elections.
In 2020, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa chose to put off a general election twice; it was postponed from April to June due to the Covid-19 pandemic before being held in August. The Opposition protested against the postponement of the parliamentary polls, but could not drum up popular support as the government managed to justify its decision on public health grounds. After all, it was obvious that the SLPP would win because President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s popularity was at its zenith at that time.
But, today, the situation is different. The approval ratings of the SLPP and the UNP have plummeted, and everybody is aware that has postponed the LG polls because it cannot win them.
Need for midterms
It is being argued in some quarters that the presidential elections and the parliamentary polls should be held on a single day to create a level playing field by preventing the President from abusing his or her power, state machinery and public resources to enable his or her party to gain a head start. It also becomes extremely difficult to ensure a level playing field for others at a presidential election when a candidate representing the ruling party runs for president.
The aforesaid argument is tenable. We have seen governments and Presidents flout election laws and abuse state resources to retain their hold on power, but the fact remains that the elections that ruling parties or the Presidents in power have to face in midterm have a sobering effect on them and compel them to be mindful of public opinion and make course corrections, as is the case in the US, where the general elections are held near the midpoint of a presidential term. The midterms also serve as a referendum on the President’s performance.
