The segment of the population who are over forty years of age still recall with clarity the atrocities committed by the JVP in 1971 and in 1989. Even for those who are younger, the JVP’s policies resemble unadulterated socialism when the rest of world- except maybe Cuba and North Korea- are resolutely marching towards varying degrees of capitalism. Their mantra is one of state regulation of almost all sectors and they do genuinely seem to believe that eliminating corruption alone will usher in utopia in Sri Lanka
The impact of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is gaining increasing attention in Sri Lanka’s currently volatile political landscape, giving rise to the inevitable question: will the party finally be the deciding factor- if not the ruling party- in forthcoming national elections?
This query arises from a series of events in 2022. Among them, foremost was the ‘Aragalaya’, the series of protests that led to the ouster of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Apart from sending Rajapaksa into an unexpected early retirement, it brought forth a common public sentiment: that the ‘system’ of alternating power between two major parties had done much damage to the country. The ‘unuth ekai, munuth ekai’ concept (that both major parties are both equally worthless) gained much credence.
In reality though, the two-party system had already taken a hit. That was because the two major rival parties, the Grand Old Party more commonly known as the United National Party (UNP) and its traditional foe, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) have both seen a decline in their fortunes.
The UNP was reduced to ruin during twenty-eight years of leadership under Ranil Wickremesinghe. It was almost wiped out at the 2020 August general election and reduced to a mere single National List seat, its share of the national vote being just 2 per cent or less than 250,000 votes countrywide.
The SLFP did not take that gamble and most of its candidates took refuge under the banner of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Had it done so, it would have suffered a fate similar to that of the UNP. It suffices to recall that in 2018, when the SLFP decided to go it alone while its leader Maithripala Sirisena was still President of the country, it polled only 12 per cent of the vote.
While both the UNP and the SLFP have been reduced to political rubble, the two parties they spawned, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya and the SLPP respectively have prospered. The SLPP captured power two years after its inception and it would be fair to say that, judging by the SJB’s decent performance at its first outing, the UNP bloc vote transferred en masse to the SJB.
The political equation has however changed since then. The events related to the ‘Aragalaya’ have revealed the SLPP for what it really is: not a political party but a political project to keep the Rajapaksa dynasty alive. It is an understatement to say that their popularity is on the wane and they are likely to suffer an ignominious dip in their numbers at the next national elections.
The UNP, despite its leader being the leader of the country now, is yet to regain its lost lustre. The very fact that it is even contemplating a political alliance with the SLPP for the local government elections, regardless of whether it eventuates or not, is a reflection of its pathetic plight.
The SJB meanwhile, while remaining arguably the most dominant opposition party, has been beset by internal squabbles which are aired quite publicly by the likes of Sarath Fonseka, the defections of the likes of Harin Fernando and the rumoured defections of the likes of Rajitha Senaratne. It does not convey the confidence of an opposition party that is waiting in the wings to form the next government.
That, the general sense of discontent embodied in the ‘unuth ekai, munuth ekai’ sentiment and the fact that JVP hasn’t been tarnished with corruption as yet has brought about the perception that the leftist party is riding the crest of a wave of popularity and could well be a leading contender for power at the next major elections.
There have been similar predictions about the JVP before but they never reached fruition. The most number of seats it had in Parliament was in 2004 when they had 39 MPs. That however was because they piggy-backed on the votes of the United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) but had only a few members on the list of candidates for each district, enabling them to obtain the highest preferences.
To be fair, the JVP has made some attempt to reinvent itself. That is in the form of the ‘Jathika Jana Balavegaya’ (JJB). The JJB is also led by JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake who has acknowledged that forming the new party was an attempt to attract greater appeal among voters.
Will the JVP finally live up to its promise? There is no doubt that it will enhance its vote. For its part, the JVP believes it has the lion’s share of the vote right now which is why it is not even considering entering into a dialogue with other opposition parties. However, that might not be the reality on the ground.
That segment of the population who are over forty years of age still recall with clarity the atrocities committed by the JVP in 1971 and in 1989. Even for those who are younger, the JVP’s policies resemble unadulterated socialism when the rest of world- except maybe Cuba and North Korea- are resolutely marching towards varying degrees of capitalism. Their mantra is one of state regulation of almost all sectors and they do genuinely seem to believe that eliminating corruption alone will usher in utopia in Sri Lanka.
What the JVP and its leadership do not seem to appreciate is that there is a significant proportion of the Sri Lankan electorate who agree wholeheartedly with the ‘unuth ekai, munuth ekai’ concept but are equally wary about handing over the reins of power to the JVP, just because they are corruption free. They would rather tryst with a known political devil than try an unknown political angel who has a history of unleashing terror and whose rhetoric is unbridled socialism.
That is what the JVP needs to understand and address before the next election. To date, they have never apologised for their actions in 1971 and 1989. They haven’t also spelt out in detail how they will manage major private sector stakeholders such as private health care, private education and the corporate sector in business. All those involved in those sectors, including hundreds of thousands of their employees will think twice before voting for a party which marches to the socialist drum but still fights shy of providing details of how it would do so.
That said, it is true that the next major national elections offer the JVP its best chances. Whether they will maximise their potential or squander that chance yet again depends on how the party conducts itself on policy matters between now and the next poll. From where they are now, they still have a long way to go, if they wish to realise their dreams.
