By Vishvanath
What is happening in Sri Lankan politics is a textbook case of irony. The SLPP government, under President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s stewardship, is busy undoing what it pledged to do in its election manifestos or did after being voted into office. The people defeated the UNP, by reducing it to a single National List seat in the 2020 general election, and voted the SLPP into power, because they were against the UNP’s policies, but today the SLPP government, under UNP leader Wickremesinghe, doing exactly what the UNP undertook to do ahead of the last parliamentary election. In fact, the UNP is using the SLPP to implement its Regaining Sri Lanka programme to all intents and purposes, the Urumaya land distribution scheme being a case in point.
In what could be considered one of the biggest U-turns on the part of the SLPP, the
Cabinet of Ministers has decided to tender an apology for the controversial ban on the burial of Covid-19 victims during the pandemic. Hundreds of Muslims were cremated, as a result, amidst protests. The timing of this Cabinet decision is of crucial importance; the next presidential poll is to be declared in a few days, and the election campaigns of all presidential hopefuls including President Wickremesinghe will enter the most decisive phase thereafter, with the dynamics of the contest and the realignment of political forces undergoing radical changes.
The mandatory cremation rule came under severe criticism at the time, for it was based on some studies whose integrity was in doubt. It affected the Muslim community more than others. Islamic religious leaders and Muslim politicians vehemently protested against that rule, and it was reported that the Maldivian government offered to arrange for the burial of the Sri Lanka’s Muslim pandemic victims in the Maldives. But the SLPP government under President Gotabaya Rajapaksa went ahead with the mandatory cremations much to the consternation of the Muslim community. It ended the forced cremations in early 2021, due to growing international pressure, especially following the then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s request that it respect the funeral rites of the Muslims.
It has been argued in some quarters that the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government did not heed the concerns of the Muslim community about the mandatory cremation policy as it was not politically dependent on the Muslim political parties. President Rajapaksa did not mince his words when he said in his inauguration speech near Ruwanweliseya, Anuradhapura, in 2019, that he had won with the votes of the Sinhalese but considered himself the President of all communities. He not only defends that statement but also reiterates it in his book, The Conspiracy. He says: “I was elected to power in November 2019 by an electorate heavily polarized along ethnic and religious lines. Shades of future events were to be seen in this beginning. The results of the election show that I won convincingly in polling divisions that had a majority of Sinhalese and particularly Sinhala Buddhist votes. I had lost or fared poorly in polling division that had a majority of ethnic or religious minority communities, (p. 8).” He goes on to say, “The result of the presidential election held in January 2015 was the exact opposite to that of 2019, with a President being elected to power with the vast majority of the Tami and Muslim vote but only a minority of the Sinhala vote, (p. 9).” He explains why he thinks the Sinhalese overwhelmingly voted for him: “One of the main reasons why the vast majority of the Sinhala Buddhist to vote for me at the November 2019 presidential election was because of their sense of alienation from the so-called Yahapalana (good governance) government of 2015-2019. Individuals and institutions of importance to the Sinhala Buddhist majority faced ill-treatment, humiliation and persecution under the government of 2015-2019.”
The Cabinet decision to apologize for the forcible Covid cremations has come at a time when the SLPP is trying to have the public believe that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had to give up the presidency due to a conspiracy by anti-Sinhala Buddhist activists. Gotabaya himself makes an attempt in his book to attribute the Aragalaya protests, which led to his ouster and that of his family from the premiership and the Cabinet, to a conspiracy hatched by the forces that had campaigned against him in 2019 and were hostile to the Sinhala Buddhist majority. Thus, he has sought to win back the support of the members of the majority community, who turned against the Rajapaksa rule.
The SLPP has indicated that it is going to field its own presidential candidate. The Island newspaper (July 24) has reported, quoting SLPP National Organizer, Namal Rajapaksa, that the SLPP will not support Ranil Wickremesinghe’s presidential candidacy, implying that it will contest the upcoming presidential election. If so, it will be dependent on the same support base as it was in 2019, and it will have to be seen as a champion of the rights of the Sinhala Buddhists. It is against this backdrop that the apology the Cabinet is going to tender for the forced cremation of Covid-19 victims should be viewed.
It is highly unlikely that the aforesaid apology will help the SLPP placate the Muslim community and secure their votes at the next presidential election. The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, the biggest party of the Muslims, has already thrown its weight behind Opposition and SJB leader Sajith Premadasa. Of all politicians connected to the SLPP government, only President Wickremesinghe can expect to win over the Muslim voters who used to vote for the UNP traditionally. Foreign Minister Ali Sabry, who was one of staunchest supporters of Gotabaya, did his best to have the burial ban lifted during the pandemic, but in vain. He has now switched his allegiance to President Wickremesinghe. He is seen with the President at the latter’s campaign rallies. But, overall, the Muslims are not well-disposed towards anyone connected to the SLPP. Is the proposed apology aimed at strengthening the hands of the Muslim politicians supporting President Wickremesinghe?
Regardless of whose idea the proposed apology may be, it is evidently aimed at the upcoming presidential election, and could be considered an indication of how tough the presidential aspirants expect the contest to be despite their rhetoric for public consumption. All signs are that there will be at least four formidable presidential candidates, provided someone from the SLPP enters the fray. Some Tamil political parties have reportedly decided to field a common candidate, but the TNA, which alone can deliver a sizable block vote to a candidate of its choice, is not part of that alliance. However, the common Tamil candidate will be able to poll a considerable number of votes, which would otherwise go to the one to be backed by the TNA. The votes of the Sinhala community are split. Thus, chances are that none of the candidates will be able to secure 50% plus one vote to secure the presidency straightaway, and the preferences will have to be counted for the winner to be selected. So, every vote will count at the next presidential election, and hence the desperation of the prospective candidates not to leave any stone unturned in their efforts to garner votes, and their intense campaigning in all parts of the country.
Whoever proposed the aforementioned, politically-motivated apology, nobody is in a position to oppose it, for obvious reasons. So, the government will go ahead with it. But whether it will have the desired political impact remains to be seen. Whatever the motive behind the apology may be, it will be of some consolation to the families of the Covid victims who were created against their wish; it could therefore be considered a step in the right direction.
