By P.K.Balachandran
Colombo, November 2:
In the post-World War II era, relations between the US and South Asian countries have been both close and growing, as the US had replaced Britain as the dominant power in Asia.
Therefore, an American Presidential election is of critical importance to Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal and the Maldives.
Their preferences for the next US President may be different but none of them has an option other than to engage with the US irrespective of who tenants the White House. As for US policy, experts say, it will be one of “continuity” whether it is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris who wins.
India
India is the pivot of US policy on South Asia. Washington will therefore look towards further defence tie ups with India and working with it to counter China in the field of maritime security, says Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.
He told the Turkish news agency, Anadolu that in the US, there is a strong bipartisan support for close ties with India. Therefore, whether it is a Trump or a Harris Administration, there will be continuity. The US has differences with India over Russia and China, but still they will work together, Kugelman adds.
Of course, right now, India-US relations are at a low ebb. To India’s discomfiture, the US joined Canada in charging that its intelligence agency was plotting to kill Indian dissidents in North America. The US said that an American Sikh separatist, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, had been a target of India-handled assassins. The Pannun case is in court and an Indian agent allegedly involved in the plot was extradited from the Czech Republic and brought to the US for trial.
The US and Canada went to the extent of naming Indian Home Minister Amit Shah and the National Security Advisor of India Ajit Doval as persons behind the alleged assassination plots. India stoutly denied involvement. It is now in talks with the US at the National Security Advisors’ level to find a way out.
Kugelman said both Harris and Trump could pressure New Delhi on this issue. “They would not let it go. They would pressure India to carry out an investigation,” he said.
Though India and US are strategic partners vis-à-vis China, they have divergent interests. India is now seeking a détente with China on the border issue and also more Chinese investments. This worries the US.
While Trump has been supportive of commercial ties, he has long been unhappy about India’s tariff policies. However, India and the US have too much at stake in the relations to allow ties to be hampered. The arms trade between India and the US has touched USD 25 billion. In 2023, US investments in India were valued at approximately USD 49.6 billion and Indian investment in the US amounted to USD 4.6 billion.
Pakistan
No matter who will be in charge of the White House, Pakistan would not be a priority,” says Kamran Yousaf in Express Tribune. Trump had let down Pakistan by walking out of Afghanistan leaving behind two million Afghan refugees in Pakistan. He also accused Pakistan of playing a double game in Afghanistan, taking American aid on the one hand, and clandestinely supporting the Taliban on the other.
However, both Trump and Biden had allowed Pakistan to develop ties with China and build the strategic China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Bangladesh
President Joe Biden put US-Bangladesh relations on an even keel after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina who had clashed with the US on human rights and over Hasina’s refusal to join the anti-China QUAD.
The student movement, which ousted Hasina, had the backing of the US. The present Chief Advisor to the interim government Prof. Muhammad Yunus is sad to be the joint choice of the US, the agitating students and civil society. The US has been a strong supporter of civil liberties in Bangladesh, even sanctioning some of the top men in Hasina’s brutal security establishment. Human rights cements ties between the Yunus regime and Washington.
While it is clear that Kamala Harris will follow Biden’s footsteps vis-à-vis Bangladesh, Trump has taken a pro-Hasina stand with an eye on the influential Indian-American constituency in the US. But this could well be an election gimmick.
Greeting American Hindus on Deepavali day, Trump said on X: “ I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos. It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America.”
“Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.”
It is not clear if Trump will actually be hostile to Bangladesh as President. He could well have made the pro-Modi or pro-Hindu noises to get the Hindu-dominated Indian American vote. Given the presence of US protégé Muhammad Yunus at the helm in Dhaka, Trump is most likely to strengthen US ties with Bangladesh.
Afghanistan
The Taliban-ruled Afghanistan would probably like to have Trump as President. As US President, as it was Trump who pulled out US troops from Afghanistan. The successor Biden Administration also enforced the decision. Perhaps Afghanistan would be happy even with Kamala Harris as President.
Sri Lanka
As for Sri Lanka, relations with the US are unlikely to be different from the past. Though the newly elected National Peoples’ Power (NPP) government is radical leftist in theory, it has indicated that it can play ball with capitalism and the US-led West. The Anura Kumara Dissanayake government in Colombo has also not said or done anything which would suggest a pro-China tilt.
However, the US has a deep interest in drafting Sri Lanka into its anti-China QUAD maritime security architecture, a prospect Sri Lankan governments have dreaded. No Sri Lankan government has wanted its island home to be a battle ground for regional or world powers.
Nevertheless, the US, whether under Trump or Harris, will press Sri Lanka to sign agreements on defence and security cooperation even those Sri Lanka had traditionally baulked at. The US will raise human and minority rights, irrespective of the occupant of the Wight House.
Nepal
Nepal is ruled by a coalition between the pro-China Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the pro-India Nepali Congress party. China was the first country to react to the formation of the coalition in Kathmandu. Nepal’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha visited Beijing where he held talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.
Nepal and China signed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement in May 2017, but Nepal has been expressing serious reservations about the text, saying that it is not interested in commercial loans from China but wants only investments. Talks over the BRI projects and an implementation plan remain suspended.
Tension with India continued. In May this year, Nepal announced the printing of a new Nepali 100 rupee note displaying a map showing Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani as parts of Nepal when India claimed those areas.
While there is an uneasy relationship with New Delhi, the coalition government in Kathmandu has not talked about its relationship with the US. Nepal has always welcomed Western investment and had signed up for the US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) pact.
Maldives
Little change is expected in US-Maldives relations as the Mohamed Muizzu government has completely given up its pro-China and anti-Indian character and is now heavily dependent on India financially. China has abandoned the Maldives for reasons not very clear. Since Maldives is in the care of strategic partner India, the US has little to worry about.
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