by Vishvanath
NPP MP Dr. Jagath Wickramaratne has been elected unopposed as the Speaker of the 10th Parliament following the resignation of Speaker Asoka Ranwala on Friday (Dec. 13) over his failure to prove that he has a doctorate.
Interestingly, on Monday (Dec. 16) Justice Minister Harshana Nanayakkara lodged a complaint with the CID, claiming that there had been a sinister attempt to tarnish his reputation by including erroneous information in his biodata published on the official website of the parliament. The Parliament Communication Department has apologized to him for the inclusion of ‘Dr.’ before his name. But Nanayakkara will have a hard time convincing the public that he had been unaware of the fact that he was referred to as ‘Dr’ before and after last month’s general election.
Why Minister Nanayakkara is so upset is understandable. The Opposition is all out to name and shame the government MPs who claim to be university graduates and doctorate holders without having required academic qualifications. It says it has identified about five NPP MPs who have willfully furnished erroneous information about their educational qualifications. Its strategy is clear. It is on a campaign to call the NPP’s credibility and integrity into question.
It is not usual for the Opposition to pick itself up, much less fight back, a few weeks after a crushing electoral defeat. The UNP had to work extremely hard after its humiliating defeat in the 1970 general election, where the SLFP-led United Front obtained a two-thirds majority. Thereafter, the SLFP and other opposition parties took nearly 17 long years to turn the tables on the UNP, which swept the 1977 general election, and secured a five-sixths majority. Following the SLFP-led People’s Alliance’s victory in 1994, the UNP took a couple of years to recover although its defeat was not as bad as that of the SLFP’s in 1977, thanks to the Proportional Representation system. The UNP could not regain balance for nearly five years after the SLFP-led United Freedom Front’s second win in the 2010 general election.
It was only in 2015 that the Opposition was able to bounce back immediately after a regime change, but that was possible owing to former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s leadership. Although Rajapaksa lost the 2015 presidential election, he remained popular and soon regained public sympathy to the extent of being able to challenge the UNP-led Yahapalana government both politically and electorally. The Opposition also took about two years to recover from the 2020 electoral shock; its comeback was possible due to the SLPP government’s mishandling of the economy and severe economic hardships the people had to undergo. But the JVP-led NPP, which scored a stunning electoral win with an unprecedented parliamentary majority only last month has already come under a counterattack by the Opposition.
The Opposition has put the NPP government on the back foot. The latter is also at the receiving end of a hostile social media campaign, and the mainstream media has also been critical of it. The fact that the NPP has chosen to maintain the status quo on the economic front and failed to do anything about its election pledges to ‘catch thieves and bring back the stolen state assets’ and to grant economic relief to the public has stood the Opposition’s anti-government campaign in good stead. The NPP social media activists are putting up a fight but they have not been able to stem the tide of anti-incumbency sentiments on the rise. Aggravating the NPP’s woes are several issues such as the scarcity of rice and coconuts and their escalating prices. The government has failed to be different from its predecessors in handling the powerful rice millers’ cartel, which has come to be dubbed the ‘Rice Mafia’.
What kind of impact will the ongoing anti-government campaign have on the NPP’s support base? This is the question that the NPP leaders must be asking themselves in view of the local government and provincial council election slated for next year. It is doubtful the NPP will be able to provide relief to the public through its maiden budget to be presented early next year owing to constricting IMF conditions.
The JVP, the biggest constituent of the fluid NPP coalition, is without a large traditional vote base to rely on to win elections. The number of voters who faithfully vote for it is about 300,000. There was a spike in its votes in 2004, when it contested a general election as part of the SLFP-led United Freedom Front alliance under President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. It fielded about 55 candidates, and 41 of them were elected. It sacrificed two of its National List slots so that President Kumaratunga could sort out a dispute in the SLFP over appointed MPs. But that was a flash in the pan, and its votes shrank to the previous level, with the number of its MPs declining to three in the last parliament.
Thus, the NPP’s victory in both the presidential and parliamentary election this year was due to a surge in public support for it due to the people’s resentment at the SLPP, the UNP and their off-shoots and the resultant massive protest vote. It obtained 5.6 million votes (42.3%) in the presidential contest (Sept. 2024) and that number increased exponentially to a staggering 6.86 million (61.56%) in the general election (Nov. 2024), and there is reason to believe that the swing voters, who backed Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the SLPP in the 2019 presidential election and the 2020 parliamentary polls, respectively, backed the NPP this year. The SLPP polled 6.85 million votes (59%) in the 2020 general election. The number of the NPP’s votes in last month’s parliamentary polls was almost equal to that of the SLPP votes in 2020.
It will be a formidable challenge for the NPP to retain popular support at the current level vis-à-vis the difficulties it is facing in delivering promised relief to the public, ‘catching thieves and bringing back stolen public assets’, ushering in good governance and above all achieving economic progress. Atop all these problems has come the controversy over the educational qualifications of the NPP MPs.
Unless the NPP government succeeds in living up to the people’s expectations by fulfilling its election promises while remaining a cut above the other political parties that it has condemned as corrupt and inefficient, public opinion will surely turn against it, causing a severe erosion of its current support base, with floating voters looking for an alternative, which may come in the form of an existing party or a new political entity to emerge. There were about 5.3 million nonvoters in the last general election, and they are a force to be reckoned with. If a party other than the NPP can mobilize them, it will be able to gain a boost for its electoral performance in future elections. All those who were enamored of the NPP voted for it en masse last month, and therefore it can be argued that most of the nonvoters are not well-disposed towards the incumbent government, and did not care to back any party due to their disillusionment with the political establishment. But they will not remain passive indefinitely and are likely to vote at future elections.
Whether the Opposition will be able to sustain its anti-government campaign until the next election remains to be seen. The NPP is bound to strike back in a bid to frustrate the Opposition’s efforts to make an early comeback. But it is likely to face some more situations it has not bargained for. Politics is full of surprises and shocks like ‘Snakes and Ladders’. Problems are apparently far from over for the NPP government.
I know Harshana personally. He never identified himself (in posters etc.) as 'Dr.' To say that he let himself be known as 'Dr.' (like Ranwala did) is inaccurate. In fact, no one referred to him as 'Dr.' until the website did. he has been told by Parliament staff that someone mistook him for Harshana Suriyapperuma which is possible. It has also been suggested this was diabolical, which is why he wants an inquiry. Vishwanath is free to comment but shouldn't make erroneous assumptions (or malicious statements, which is worse) about Harshana being aware that he was referred to as 'Dr.'. To confirm, all he has to do is to view the many youtube videos of Harshana is the lead up to the election- where he was always only a lawyer. Disappointed, expected a higher standard from 'Vishvanath'.