By Kassapa
The corridors of power in the opposition are buzzing with the same news: is the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) about to implode?
Two events triggered this speculation. The first was a letter sent by SJB Chairman Imthiaz Bakeer Markar to SJB and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa. The second was the appointment of Thalatha Atukorale, until recently of the SJB but now with the United National Party (UNP), as the General Secretary of that party.
Bakeer Markar’s letter was sent to Premadasa and copied to General Secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara, National Organiser Tissa Attanayake and Treasurer Harsha de Silva. Somehow, its contents found its way to the media. The letter is quite damning, firstly because of who is writing it and secondly because of its contents.
Bakeer Markar is a much-loved personality in the SJB with hardly anyone saying a harsh word about him. He began his politics as a student leader in the UNP and rose through its ranks, despite his father, Mohammed Abdul Bakeer Markar being a prominent member of the party. Soft-spoken but articulate and trilingual, the younger Bakeer Markar was schooled at Ananda College and is a lawyer by profession. His is a voice of reason in the SJB where he commands the highest respect.
In his letter, Bakeer Markar calls for more internal democracy in the party, a formal governance structure within the SJB, regular meetings of party organisations, access to the party leader and avoiding give pride of place to ‘parachutists’ at the expense of loyal party members. By requesting all this from the SJB leader, what he is implying is that none of this prevails in the SJB!
In this context it is relevant to note that Harsha De Silva was asked about Bakeer Markar’s letter to Premadasa at a recent television talk show and he did agree with most of the issues that were raised in the letter.
Bakeer Markar knows all this only too well. After all, he is the Chairman of the party. He himself was at the receiving end only recently when Premadasa’s follies in promising National List slots to partner parties resulted in the SJB being left with just two seats for itself. General Secretary Madduma Bandara nominated himself for one of them. Bakeer Markar should have been the obvious choice for the remaining slot though he didn’t provide ‘voice cuts’ to the media but that went to Sujeewa Senasinghe. This decision alone shows the cartel like manner in which the SJB operates where the favoured are preferred over the more competent.
Bakeer Markar’s omission and Senasinghe’ inclusion instead left a sour taste in the SJB camp. This has triggered some introspection among party members, some of whom are now openly questioning Premadasa’s ability to manage men and win elections, both of which he appears to be failing in regularly.
There has been discussion in the SJB about alternatives. The obvious option is to return to the UNP. However, many do not favour that either: Ranil Wickremesinghe shows no sign of abdicating and it is only reasonable that those who did not defect to the SJB get preference in any subsequent succession battle for which already the likes of Ravi Karunanayake, Ruwan Wijewardene, Sagala Ratnayaka and Vajira Abeywardena are lining up.
However, hopes for a reunification of the UNP and the SJB rose suddenly with the appointment of Thalatha Atukorale as General Secretary of the UNP last week. Insiders say that this ‘deal’ was done before Atukorale crossed over to the UNP but was kept under wraps until the time was right to unveil it. Having been a stalwart of the SJB since its formation, she has the ability to pick up the phone and reach out to almost any SJB member if she wishes to.
It is also now obvious to anyone with an iota of political sense that a UNP-SJB combination will perform better than either party alone. However, the perennial question about who would lead the unified party remains the biggest stumbling block. Ranil Wickremesinghe is now reportedly shying away from even considering Premadasa as his deputy. Besides, there will be considerable opposition from Karunanayake, Ratnayake and Co. at this prospect.
In SJB circles however, there is also a perception that, given the UNP’s current moribund state, there is little purpose in returning to a party that is almost certainly likely to lose the next election. This is where the possibility of a right-of-centre alternative in the form of a brand-new political party is being discussed. It could draw most of its members from the SJB who could re-brand themselves as a viable alternative to the left-of-centre Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) government.
This concept is very much alive. The question is who would take the giant leap of leaving the SJB and announcing the formation of a new political entity. Then, if they were to do so, there is also the issue of what would happen to their seats in Parliament. They risk expulsion, the fate suffered by Harin Fernando and Manusha Nanayakkara when they deserted the party.
There is a school of thought that it maybe worthwhile resigning from Parliament, forming a new party and presenting it as an alternative to the SJB at the next election but next national polls are almost five years away and not many want to be in what seems to be the political wilderness for that long. Whether those who have been identified as potential leaders of such an entity- the likes of Bakeer Markar or even Harsha de Silva- are politically courageous enough to take the plunge is left to be seen.
The final, almost unthinkable option is to oust Premadasa from the SJB leadership as part of its re-branding exercise. However, Premadasa appears to have learnt enough tricks from Wickremesinghe to ensure that this is not possible under the party’s Constitution. So, that is likely to be a non-starter.
The SJB is on a slippery slope towards political extinction. The coming months will be crucial and the scale of its defeat at the local government election is likely to be the precipitant that triggers the next move.
