Baloch rebellion takes new forms, increasing the challenge to troubled Pakistan

By P.K. Balachandran

Colombo, March 15 – The long-standing armed secessionist movement in Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest and poorest province, is evolving into more dangerous and sophisticated forms, posing a significant challenge to the country’s stability.

In a bold attack on Tuesday, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) hijacked the Quetta-Peshawar Jaffar Express, carrying nearly 400 passengers, near a series of mountain tunnels 160 km from Quetta. A firefight with security forces resulted in the deaths of 21 civilians and four paramilitary personnel. The rebels used passengers as human shields.

The year 2024 has been particularly violent for Pakistan, with the BLA carrying out more than 150 attacks. However, Tuesday’s incident was unprecedented, involving hijacking, hostage-taking, and prolonged combat. Political commentator Najam Sethi described it as a wake-up call for the Pakistani state, urging the military and political leadership to set aside differences and formulate a united strategy to eliminate the BLA. He also accused foreign powers of aiding the group and suggested Pakistan adopt an “offensive-defensive” strategy, targeting BLA bases and supply routes in Afghanistan and Iran.

Sethi further argued that despite frequent accusations, Pakistan has failed to provide credible evidence of Indian involvement, reflecting the incompetence of its military establishment. He acknowledged the political and economic roots of the Baloch rebellion but insisted that military suppression must come first before any political or economic concessions. Otherwise, he warned, the rebels would perceive negotiations as a sign of weakness.

Balochistan Resource-Rich but Neglected

Balochistan, though rich in natural resources like coal, gold, copper, and gas, remains Pakistan’s most underdeveloped province. The royalties from these resources are disproportionately lower than those received by provinces like Sindh and Punjab. Moreover, economic opportunities are monopolized by non-Balochis, fueling local resentment.

Despite being home to the strategically important Gwadar port and the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Balochistan sees little benefit from these projects. Since the mid-1970s, its share of the national GDP has declined from 4.9% to 3.7%. The province also suffers from the highest infant and maternal mortality rates, the highest poverty levels, and the lowest literacy rate in the country.

A History of Rebellion

Balochistan’s struggle for autonomy dates back to Pakistan’s formation in 1947 when it attempted to remain independent but was forcibly annexed in 1948. Since then, the province has witnessed at least five major separatist uprisings.

The BLA emerged in the late 1990s, led by Baloch Marri, son of veteran nationalist Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri. The movement escalated in 2006 after the military, under Gen. Pervez Musharraf, killed prominent Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti.

Unlike moderate Baloch nationalist groups seeking autonomy, the BLA has never pursued a middle ground and remains committed to armed resistance.

Suicide Attacks and the Rise of Educated Militants

In 2010, the BLA launched its suicide squad, the Majeed Brigade. In 2018, BLA leader Aslam Baloch sent his own son on a suicide mission targeting Chinese engineers in Dalbandin. Later that year, the BLA attacked the Chinese consulate in Karachi, killing four people.

In 2022, the group gained global attention when female suicide bomber Shari Baloch targeted Chinese nationals at Karachi University, killing four, including three Chinese citizens.

Malik Siraj Akbar, a researcher on the Baloch separatist movement, told Al Jazeera that the BLA’s leadership has shifted from tribal figures to educated middle-class youth, many of whom were once part of the non-violent Baloch Students Organization (BSO). The group now attracts young, educated recruits who see armed struggle as the only path to survival.

Government repression, enforced disappearances, and poor governance have further fueled the insurgency. Many of the BLA’s new recruits include professionals such as IT specialists and data analysts, allowing the group to expand its digital and strategic capabilities.

Funding and Foreign Links

The BLA’s funding sources remain unclear, though analysts suggest extortion, smuggling, and drug trafficking play a role. According to The Khorasan Diary, extortion from coal mines in Balochistan is a primary revenue source. The group also benefits from weapons left behind in Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal in 2021.

While Pakistan claims the BLA operates from Iran and Afghanistan, its strained relations with both countries limit its ability to take action.

Historical Mistrust and Military Suppression

Mistrust between the majority Punjabi population and the Baloch minority was exacerbated by the “One Unit Scheme” introduced by military ruler Gen. Ayub Khan in 1955. The plan merged Pakistan’s four western provinces into a single entity to counterbalance the larger Bengali population in East Pakistan. Baloch nationalists resisted, fearing reduced representation and resource exploitation.

Although the scheme ended in 1970, tensions persisted. In 1973, Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto dismissed Balochistan’s National Awami Party (NAP) government, accusing it of conspiring with foreign powers. This sparked a violent insurgency.

A temporary truce was established under military ruler Gen. Zia-ul-Haq in 1977, but autonomy demands remained unaddressed. Under Gen. Pervez Musharraf, military operations intensified. In 2009, Baloch militants carried out 792 attacks, resulting in 386 deaths. Violence escalated in 2010, with 730 attacks and 600 fatalities.

No End in Sight

Balochistan remains locked in a cycle of violence and repression. The Pakistani state continues its heavy-handed approach, while the BLA grows increasingly sophisticated. Without addressing the deep-rooted grievances of the Baloch people, Pakistan is unlikely to see lasting peace in its most restive province.

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