Last Friday’s vote in the parliament on the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution Bill turned out to be a sort of contest between Basil Rajapaksa and his political rivals, who scored an impressive victory. It is no secret that Basil did his level best to have the Bill amended at the committee stage and two sections inserted into it, one to do away with the proposed provision for debarring dual citizens from becoming MPs, and the other to prevent the President from dissolving the parliament until the expiration of four and a half years of its term.
The SLPP MPs were divided on the Bill, and the debate on it was delayed, as a result. Many expected another postponement, but in an unexpected turn of events, the Bill was taken up, debated and passed with a two-thirds majority without any of the amendments Basil and his loyalists demanded as a condition for supporting it.
As many as 174 MPs voted for the Bill, and only SLPP MP Sarath Weerasekera voted against it. Other MPs numbering 50 were either absent or chose not to vote. Not all of them are Basil supporters though. Some MPs were overseas, and the TNA decided against voting either for or against the Bill, calling it a mere eyewash. So did the leader of the Ahila Ilankai Thamil Congress, Gajendran Ponnambalam. Several TNA MPs however voted for the Bill. It is believed that Basil could secure the support of only about 40 MPs on Friday, as opposed to 134 votes he delivered to Ranil Wickremesinghe in July at the presidential contest in the parliament. This has given rise to speculation that the SLPP has suffered another split.
Basil has been virtually running the government through the SLPP parliamentary group. The setback he has suffered is likely to impact his hold on power adversely; it will strengthen the position of other SLPPers who are not well-disposed towards him but have not broken ranks with the party.
In the run-up to the vote on the 22nd Amendment Bill, speculation had been rife that Basil was trying to re-enter the parliament and become the Prime Minister by leveraging his control over the SLPP parliamentary group. Anything is possible in Sri Lankan politics. Whoever would have thought that Rani Wickremesinghe would become the Prime Minister and President in quick succession, having lost the last general election in 2020? Rumors of Basil’s alleged plans to be the PM made quite a stir in political circles, and had an unsettling effect on his political opponents, especially the dissident SLPP MPs, who moved to ensure the passage of the 22nd Amendment Bill to prevent him from re-entering the parliament. The SJB, the JVP-led NPP and the SLPP rebel MPs joined forces in a rare moment of unity to ratify the Bill.
The Sri Lankan Constitution is full of holes, which allow virtually anyone who is not disqualified from being an MP to enter the parliament via the National List and even become the Prime Minister and/or the President thereafter. Now that the 22nd Amendment has been passed, Basil cannot become an MP unless he renounces his US citizenship, which seems to be the last thing he wants to do at this juncture. But if he can bring himself to do so, the path will be open for him to re-enter the parliament and do what he is said to be contemplating.
The outcome of Friday’s vote was undoubtedly a huge setback for Basil and his loyalists, who were boasting that they were capable of swaying the parliament. Even at the height of anti-government protests, a few months ago, they managed to muster enough numbers in the parliament to further their interests; they had Ranil Wickremesinghe elected President with 134 votes, in July. But they could not secure the support of even some members of the Rajapaksa family, on Friday; Chamal, Namal and Shasheendra voted with others for the Bill, much to the surprise of many. Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena also voted for the Bill. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and other staunch Basil supporters such as Mahindananda Aluthgamage, Sagara Kariyawasam, Rohitha Abeygunawardena and Prasassna Ranatunga did not vote as a pledge of solidarity with Basil.
Basil has been able to control the SLPP and thereby hold sway over the government because of his political clout, which is sure to decrease owing to what happened on Friday. The person who commands the support of the majority of the members of the parliament rules the country to all intents and purposes even if he or she does not hold the executive presidency. Usually, it is either the President or the Prime Minister who controls the government MPs, as the leader of the ruling party. The leaders of the SLFP and the UNP are normally fielded as presidential candidates, and therefore the question of anyone else being in control of the ruling party or the main constituent of the coalition in power, under a UNP or SLFP President, does not arise. When a person other than the party leader happens to contest a presidential election successfully from the UNP or the SLFP, he or she automatically becomes the head of the party upon his or her election. Mahinda Rajapaksa became the SLFP leader after being elected President in 2005. There has been an aberration where the SLFP is concerned. Maithripala Sirisena became the President in 2015, having contested as the common candidate of the UNP-led Opposition; he thereafter grabbed the leadership of the SLFP, claiming that he had not resigned from that party! President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was not the leader of the SLPP. Attempts by the likes of dissident SLPP MP Wimal Weerawansa to make him the leader of the SLPP failed. What kind of impact Friday’s setback will have on Basil’s hold on the SLPP and the group dynamics of the ruling coalition remains to be seen.
Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe has only a single MP on his side. Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena is the leader of a small constituent of the SLPP coalition. They can never gain control of the parliament under their own steam. Hence their overdependence on Basil for political survival. The passage of the 22nd Amendment may have made them realize that it was prudent to cooperate with the Opposition.
The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution contains some progressive features although it will not help eliminate all the draconian powers that the 20th Amendment restored in the executive presidency. The President now cannot remove the Prime Minister, and this is widely seen as a safeguard against the violation of the principle of the separation of powers. The 22nd Amendment has also restored the Constitutional Council, which the 20th Amendment turned into a weak Parliamentary Council, with some of its vital powers being removed, and will go a long way in strengthening the independent commissions.
Basil’s political opponents are painting the town red. They seem to think they have checkmated Basil, at long last. But he is not likely to take Friday’s setback lying down. He is sure to make an effort to rally again the way he has done in the past. It will be interesting to see his next move. This time around, he has his work cut out.
