Nothing is so certain as the unexpected in politics. Whoever would have thought, about two years ago, that the mighty SLPP government would start crumbling in midterm? Former Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa resigned from the parliament on Thursday (09) exactly one month after his elder brother, Mahinda’s resignation as the Prime Minister. Business tycoon, Dhammika Perera, has filled the National List vacancy created by Basil’s dramatic exit. A new ministry was created for him even before his name was submitted to the Election Commission as an SLPP National List MP. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who polled a whopping 6.9 million votes in the 2019 presidential race, has said he will not seek re-election! He says he does not want to retire as a failed President, and will complete his current term. He is obviously seeking to improve his performance. The SLPP has had to postpone the local government polls for fear of suffering an electoral setback. The Opposition is winning co-operative society elections, which are considered a political windsock of sorts.
Powerful governments become unpopular sooner than expected, and even collapse unexpectedly with dark horses emerging victorious at elections. There have been many such examples both here and overseas. Prime Minister Winston Churchill, who stimulated the British morale and saved Britain from Hitler, lost the very first election he faced after the conclusion of the Second World War, in 1945. That is the way with politics characterized by glorious uncertainties. But, perhaps, never has a solo MP become the Prime Minister anywhere else in the world.
Heroes as villains
The SLPP had a meteoric rise in national politics, and mustered a two-thirds majority with a few crossovers in 2020, but eventually had to let UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, an appointed MP, take over as the Prime Minister and call the shots in the government. What does the SLPP’s predicament signify? How come heroes have become villains?
Capturing state power is one thing but retaining it is quite another. Politicians, in most cases, win elections not because of their skills or popularity but because of the failure and unpopularity of their political rivals in power although the leaders of the winning parties and their strategists are given the credit for pulling off electoral victories. Doomed is a government that cannot exercise power to the satisfaction of the people.
The UNP won the 1977 general election with an unprecedented five-sixths majority not so much because of any special ability of its leaders, who had lost elections previously, but because of the SLFP-led United Front’s unpopularity. The people were fed up with the SLFP and its allies so much owing to economic hardships they had faced due to various restrictions, and the arrogance of power the ruling party politicians and their henchmen exuded, that even a large number of anti-social elements such as bootleggers, cattle rustlers and cannabis dealers, fielded by the UNP, were returned while the SLFP was reduced to eight seats in 1977, which marked a turning point in Sri Lanka’s post-Independence political history. Prime Minster J. R. Jayewardene opened the heavily state-controlled economy, and introduced the current presidential system.
It took the SLFP 17 long years to engineer a regime change, but lost power again in 2001, after being in power for a little over six years. Its comeback in 1994 would not have been possible but for the political turmoil caused by the assassinations of Lalith Athulathmudali and President Ranasinghe Premadasa. The UNP returned to power because the SLFP-led People’s Alliance, on President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s watch, blundered, and antagonized the public.
The 2015 regime change also came about mostly because the Mahinda Rajapaksa government had become hugely unpopular; it had become notorious for the abuse of power, attacks on democracy, bribery and corruption, nepotism, cronyism and an overall callous disregard for public opinion. Thereafter, the Yahapalana government made a mess of governance, neglected national security, allowed corruption to thrive and its leaders were busy settling political scores with one another, and their administration became dysfunctional creating conditions for the Rajapaksas’ return to power. The writing began to appear on the wall for the yahapalana dispensation in late 2018, when the newly-formed SLPP turned the tables on the UNP and the SLFP by winning the local government polls and went on to win the presidential election (2019) and the general election the following year with a near two-thirds majority. The Easter Sunday terrorist attacks in 2019 became the undoing of the yahapalana government, which failed to ensure national security due to infighting.
The current administration is crumbling like its predecessor because it is not adept at retaining power.
Paying the price
The SLPP is paying the price for being cocky, ignoring expert opinion, neglecting the economy, and adopting a cavalier attitude towards the concerns of the public. The causes of the collapse of the previous Rajapaksa government, in 2015, were more political than economic, but the reasons why the incumbent Rajapaksa administration is crumbling are more economic than political. Curiously, the first Rajapaksa government (2005-2010) not only survived an economic crisis but also led the country’s war against the LTTE to a successful conclusion while struggling to keep its parliamentary majority intact. It succeeded in doing so because troubled by an intense fear of collapsing, it left nothing to chance; it listened to experts, and took prompt action at the early stages of the economic crisis. It did not postpone a trip to the IMF and managed the country’s foreign reserves prudently. The present economic crisis occurred because the government ignored experts’ warnings and refused to ask for IMF assistance and make a course correction.
The Covid-19 pandemic doubtlessly took its toll on the economy—foreign remittances decreased; revenue from tourism plummeted; costly lockdowns had to be imposed, and pandemic control and prevention measures and relief also required a great deal of funds. However, other countries in the region survived the pandemic. They managed their economies and foreign reserves carefully. If the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government had refrained from slashing taxes for political reasons, and resorting to excessive money printing to meet the resultant revenue shortfall, heeded the Central Bank advice and sought IMF assistance at least last year instead of trying home remedies and expending dollar reserves to defend the rupee unnecessarily, the current economic crisis could have been averted.
Political tsunami
Economic shocks people had to suffer triggered a political tsunami, which plunged the country into near anarchy and destabilized the SLPP administration to the extent of having to hand over the reins of government to Wickremesinghe. There was no need for the Opposition to take people out for street protests against the government. People were already out there in the streets, waiting in long queues to buy fuel, milk powder, etc., and most of them were blocking arterial roads in protest against their hardships. The Gotago Gama protest became a success initially because people undergoing untold suffering due to the shortages of fuel and other essential commodities, and power cuts gathered there in their thousands and even provided protesters with food and beverages. Most of them were people who were resentful because they had been deprived of middle-class comforts. It is this segment of society which is very active on social media, and it is only natural that the government came under a social media onslaught with ‘protest villages’ mushrooming in many parts of the country.
The Galle Face protest no longer attracts crowds because political parties infiltrated it, and a spate of counter-violence following the SLPP goon attacks, on 09 May, drove peace-loving protesters away. However, public resentment remains palpable and is likely to find expression in some other form with the passage of time.
Future of the SLPP
Basil is one of the Rajapaksas who drew heavy flak from the public. Even some SLPP coalition partners have called for his ouster. Prominent among them are Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gammanpila and Vasudeva Nanayakkara. Will Basil’s exist from the parliament help the SLPP rebound?
The SLPP is apparently past the stage where any recovery is possible, and the economic problems that turned public opinion against it show no signs of going away anytime soon. Even if the crisis is contained in a few months, the people’s lot will not improve significantly for a couple of years to come as the prices that go up do not return to the previous levels, and the economic recovery process is slow. Odds, therefore, will be against the SLPP.
Basil may be planning to maintain a low profile without getting involved in the affairs of the government until the present political turmoil blows over, with a view to returning to active politics later, the way he did during the Yahapalana government. But that will be a tall order, given the intensity of public resentment.
