SLPP National Organizer and former Minister of Finance Basil Rajapaksa returned from the US on Sunday (20). It is widely thought that he has done so to ensure that the government will be able to muster enough votes in the parliament for the ratification of Budget 2023. A large number of SLPP MPs and well-wishers gathered at the Bandaranaike International Airport to receive him.
Opinion is divided on Budget 2023. The government calls it a roadmap for economic recovery and growth, but the Opposition has dismissed it as a damp squib and sees in it a sinister move to dispose of some of the country’s vital assets at the behest of the IMF. The JVP claims that President Ranil Wickremesinghe has presented the budget with an eye to the local government elections expected early next year. The JVP’s view is in sharp contrast to that of the SJB, which insists that the budget has provided no relief to the public at all. Anyway, such diverse opinions are to be expected when a budget is viewed through partisan lenses. There is no general consensus on any budget.
The budget debate is currently ongoing in the parliament, and various views are being expressed on how the government has proposed to resolve the current economic crisis and achieve growth. The government has drawn heavy criticism for a slew of new taxes which have aggravated the economic woes of the public, the proposed divestiture drive camouflaged as a ‘restructuring’ program, significantly high defense expenditure, the absence of tangible economic relief, etc. The government’s plan to explore the possibility of promoting cannabis (or pot) exports to shore up the country’s forex reserves has caused quite a stir. Some prominent Buddhist monks have already protested against this proposal. They are sure to crank up pressure on the government to drop it.
Conspiracies and assassinations
UNP Chairman and former Cabinet Minister Vajira Abeywardene, MP, blew his stack in the parliament on Friday, flaying, as he did, some unnamed persons, who, he said, were conspiring to derail the government’s economic program. He was critical of the high interest rates aimed at curbing inflation and called for a cap on them for the benefit of the business community and the general public. He did not specify how that could be done, and stopped short of discussing the adverse impact low interest rates have on money supply while inflation is extremely high.
Although no names were named, it was clear that Abeywardene was referring to some top officials of the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry. He claimed that certain external forces were working against the government, and went on to mention some war-time assassinations and the post-war regime changes to bolster his contention that an unseen hand was behind threats to the country’s interests.
Abeywardena’s claims warrant political commentators’ attention because he is a member of President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s kitchen cabinet, and his thinking is believed to reflect that of the UNP.
Abeywardene recalled an attempt on President J. R. Jayewardene’s life at the parliamentary complex in 1987, and the fact that President Ranasinghe Premadasa, Lalith Athulathmudali, and Gamini Dissanayake had been assassinated in 1993 and 1994, and President Chandrika Kumaratunga had survived an assassination attempt in 1999. The perpetrators of those crimes were known, but the masterminds behind them remained unknown, Abeywardena claimed, blaming the fall of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government and the resignation of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, too, on conspiracies. Speaking of the fertilizer issue, he said Minister C. V. Gooneratne, who unveiled a plan to manufacture fertilizer locally had been assassinated, the implication being that Gooneratne’s decision to set up a fertilizer manufacturing plant here had something to do with his assassination.
Why prompted Abeywardena to make such claims in the House?
The JVP was accused of the bomb attack on President Jayewardene, and other UNP MPs. The assassinations of President Premadasa and Dissanayake were carried out by the LTTE. The police blamed the LTTE for the assassination of Athlulathmudali, but those who were close to him were not convinced; in their eyes, the Premadasa government became a suspect. It has been established that the LTTE tried to assassinate President Kumaratunga on the eve of the 1999 presidential election, and was responsible for the killing of Minister Gooneratne.
Why has Abeywardena lumped the above-mentioned incidents together and made them out to be proof of a conspiracy against the country? Is his imagination running riot? Is he privy to some information that others are not, and has told the truth? Has he concocted a conspiracy theory in a bid to discredit the state officials with whom he has an axe to grind and his political opponents? One may not know the answers to these questions, but Abeywardena’s suspicion that a plot is being hatched in some quarters to dislodge the present government by defeating the budget is not baseless. Those in opposition always conspire to bring down the government in power, and believe that the end justifies the means. That is the name of the game in power politics!
Plots to scuttle budgets
The MPs on both sides of the House do not listen attentively when their rivals speak; they only heckle instead of challenging or countering arguments. Therefore, it was no surprise that MP Abeywardene’s reference to the fall of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government went unchallenged, and no Opposition MP reminded the House of the role the UNP had played in a campaign to defeat President Rajapaksa’s Budget 2008, which was presented in November 2007, at the height of the war.
Abeywardena’s claim that President Rajapaksa experienced serious trouble during his second term due to a conspiracy with an unseen hand being involved in it serves as an indictment on the UNP; his claim amounts to an admission that the UNP, which was instrumental in engineering the 2015 regime change, was a party to that conspiracy!
The UNP, the TNA and the JVP went all out to defeat the Rajapaksa government’s budget in November 2007. President Rajapaksa went to the UK a few days before the final vote was taken, and speculation was rife that the government would lose a majority in the House because some ruling party MPs had switched their allegiance to the UNP. Anura Bandaranaike crossed over to the Opposition on the day of the vote.
On being informed of the political situation here, President Rajapaksa decided to rush back home, but the national carrier, SriLankan, which was managed by Emirates at that time, refused to offload passengers to accommodate him and his entourage. Therefore, they had to return in a Mahin Air flight. The President made some frantic efforts to retain his government’s majority, and they yielded the intended results. Some of the UPFA MPs who had promised to join forces with the Opposition were persuaded to vote with the government, given the crucial stage the war had entered, and it was rumored that they had been given bigger bribes than what they had been offered by the other side. The JVP suffered a split and its MPs abstained when the vote was taken. The budget was passed with 114 votes to 67 in the 225-member House.
Current situation
The rebel MPS of the SLPP have reportedly said they will do their utmost to defeat the budget, and why the government is not leaving anything to chance is understandable.
Basil’s return at this juncture will give a boost to the government’s efforts to shore up its parliamentary majority by preventing its members from breaking ranks and luring some more Opposition MPs into crossing over.
Basil managed to ensure the election of Wickremesinghe as President with 134 votes to 82 in July. It was no mean achievement for a beleaguered government amid a popular uprising. But in October, the Basil faction of the SLPP failed to prevent the passage of the 22nd Amendment Bill, which was detrimental to the interests of Basil, who now cannot enter the parliament unless he gives up his US citizenship, which he holds dear. The Bill received 174 votes for and one against. Among the 50 MPs who either abstained or were absent were some MPs whose allegiance is to the Opposition, and therefore not all of them can be considered Basil loyalists. The crucial vote is thought to have indicated a setback for the Basil group, but this claim is yet to be proved. The government MPs who voted with the Opposition for the 22nd Amendment are not likely to vote against the 2023 budget because they do not want to face a general election anytime soon.
If the Opposition succeeds in shooting down the budget, the ongoing efforts to stabilize the economy with the help of the IMF will face a severe setback, and those who vote against the budget will be blamed for sabotaging the country’s efforts to achieve economic recovery and ameliorate the people’s suffering. This is a charge that no MP will want to face. But there is no guarantee that the Opposition will act with restraint. In 2007, the fact that the war against the LTTE had reached a crucial stage, and a regime change would derail it did not deter UNP and its allies from going ahead with their campaign to defeat the budget, albeit without success.
