Colombo, February 22:
There is now a growing tendency, the world over, to view every issue from a “security” angle. The question of climate change is no exception. While climate change does have defense or geopolitical implications, it can be seen just as a climatic problem and dealt with as such. Solutions to most climate change questions can be found without linking them to security. Propagated in the regional or global context, the notion of “security” is problematic because it brings, in its train, concerns over national sovereignty and fears of regional or Big Power domination and militarization.
“Securitization” could turn climate change into a “competitive arena” when it should be an “area of cooperation” with no hint of aggression. Securitization could very well stymie projects for the mitigation of the effects of climate change.
Security in Bay of Bengal
Indian scholars Angshuman Choudhury, Siddharth Anil Nair, Ashutosh Nagda and Garima Maheshwari have, this year, brought out a report for the IPCS-Clingendael Institute of the Netherlands on the relation between climate change and security in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) Region.
The report points out that the BoB coastal zone hosts a variety of strategic assets which could be threatened by climate change. These include air bases, air and coastal defense systems, nuclear facilities, dry dock and repair terminals, shipyards, armed forces’ training centers, logistic support bases, medical facilities, and communication infrastructure. There are close to 100 naval bases, approximately 14 existing and planned LNG terminals, four operational and planned civil nuclear units and five deep water ports in the region.
Rivalries
The BoB is the scene of regional and extra-regional rivalries. “China has been actively expanding its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean and the BoB through its assets in Myanmar. Through a raft of connectivity projects and deployment of military assets, Beijing is looking to build greater strategic depth while also operationalizing its growing naval capabilities in the region,” the report points out.
India too has pursued its strategic interests in the region. The US-China rivalry has intensified since 2017 with Washington seeking to reinvigorate its economic and military presence in the region through its economic and military engagements. The BoB region is part of America’s Indo-Pacific strategic defense project to contain China. India is part of this project. Efforts are being made to rope in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka too.
The report’s six security-related findings are: 1) Climate threats could intensify regional inter-state military competition and conflict 2) Climate-induced migration will be a major conflict driver 3) Land loss, exacerbated by climate threats, will be another key conflict driver 4) Climate threats will affect the overall resilience of displaced communities 5) Frequent adverse weather events pose a major long-term threat to national governance 6) Strategic assets in the BoB region are highly vulnerable.
The report points out that the UN Environment Program (UNEP) says that climate change is the “ultimate threat multiplier aggravating already fragile situations”. And the UN Security Council (UNSC) has formally endorsed that view.
Reduced access to fresh water, impaired food production and land loss from flooding are likely to cause massive population displacement. According to a report by the National Resource Council of Maine (NRC), with nearly two-thirds of the world’s population living near coastlines, the threat of population displacement will increase sharply. The NRC of Maine also points out that climate change refugees do not have the rights that other types of refugees enjoy. That’s a key human rights dimension.
Downside
The report of the Indian scholars also points out that there is a downside to mixing up the natural, economic and social problems created by climate change with security issues which are essentially political or geo-strategic in nature.
Such an admixture of climate and political issues could prevent climate change from being an issue requiring unstinted global cooperation. Any link with national security concerns with climate change would militate against such cooperation because of competing strategic interests. Small countries will feel uncomfortable with big power moves on climate change if they are portrayed as matters of security.
The authors point out that India does not advocate international cooperation on climate security, arguing that it would detract from Big Power accountability at forums like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) where developed countries should attempt to meet their international climate commitments. According retired Indian Ambassador Shyam Saran, incorporating climate change in the UNSC agenda could fuel suspicions about the disproportionate influence of powerful states. The Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina has asked developed countries to deliver on their commitments first, before asking others to do so.
Human Centric Approach
The authors note that the non-powers in the BoB region are already adopting more “human-centric” climate change policies aimed at containment and adaptation. They are addressing climate security issues without using the term “security” which has military connotations. Supporting this approach, the authors say that it “sets the stage for more targeted policy approaches that address the critical intersections between climate and security.”
Climate Challenges in BoB
Even though the BoB region accounts for only 5% of global cyclonic activity, it suffers more than 80% of the fatalities associated with cyclones, the report says. The frequency of cyclones is projected to increase as a result of climate change due to changes in sea water temperatures, it explains.
According to the report, Sea Level Rise (SLR) is one of the most severe impacts of climate change in the BoB region. SLR in the BoB region is occurring at a rate of 1.5 mm/year. In the Bengal Sundarbans, SLR has occurred at a much higher average rate of 3 cm/year over the last 20 years, leading to a 12% decline in its shoreline, and affecting 27 million people through the loss of agricultural lands.
The Indian Sundarbans in West Bengal lost 107 sq km of mangrove cover between 1975 and 2013. Erosion affected 60% of those mangroves and 23% were converted to barren lands. With extensive low-lying areas, BoB region also faces coastal erosion. In India, 235 sq km of land was lost to coastal erosion during the 1990-2016 period. In Bangladesh’s Chittagong belt, a number of vital installations, like export promotion zones, naval establishments, large industrial estates, and port facilities, are in danger of being flooded due to erosion. In Sri Lanka, the government has spent US$ 13 million in coastal erosion management till 2017, the report points out.
Myanmar was the second- most climate risk-affected country in the world from 1999 to2018, according to the 2020 Global Climate Risk Index. After 2011, under a partial democratic regime, Myanmar began to take some steps towards environmental protection. But the numerous local conflicts along inter-ethnic and state-versus-civil society lines, have hampered implementation of climate change programs, the report notes.
The report says that Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to climate change. It was the sixth-most climate risk-affected country in the world in 2018. But it has been taking steps to mitigate the damage. It’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sri Lanka 2011-2016, is an adaptation policy to move the country towards greater climate resilience. In 2012, Sri Lanka passed the National Climate Change Policy with the focus on community participation and knowledge sharing. The 2014 Technology Needs Assessment supplemented this, wherein sectors of energy, transport and industry were identified as potential sites of mitigation. In 2016, the country’s National Adaptation Plan for Climate Change (2016-2025) identified a range of socioeconomic sectors vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Indonesia is one of the world’s biggest emitters of greenhouse gases and is also the one of the largest global exporters of thermal coal. It is among the most vulnerable to climate change, with a nearly 80,000 km long coastline. But despite a robust policy framework for climate action, implementation remains a challenge in Indonesia, the authors point out.
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