The dilemma of smaller states in the Indian Ocean that yearn to be neutral

 

The Chinese research vessel SHI YAN6 will probably dock in Colombo and later in Hambantota for research activities during the latter part of this year.

SHI YAN6 is the second ship that may sail through the Lankan waters for research purposes. During the recent passage of time, China has increased the frequency of its research vessels calling at the Sri Lankan ports.

Yuan Wang 5 is the first vessel in recent history to engage in oceanography and research activities in Sri Lankan waters. The arrival of this vessel caused apprehensions in the Indian administrative hierarchy that had it spill over to Colombo in no measurable terms.

Yuan Wang 5 is the third-generation tracking ship of the Yuan Wang series and entered service on September 29, 2007. Loaded with electronic tracking gear, the Yuan Wang 5 has been called a “spy ship”.

The vessel, with a displacement of more than 25,000 tonnes, could possess a host of powerful radars, antennae, sensors, and related technologies used for both civilian and military purposes.

India raised concerns over the arrival of Yuan Wang 5 in the Sri Lankan waters on the grounds that it could collect data relating to oceanic natural phenomena and the properties of the ocean floor.

The study could help in strategic measures such as naval formations and study the most suitable season to amass navigational prowess.

However, it was a reckoning period for Sri Lanka, embroiled in a political and financial crisis that inexorably plunged the country into unprecedented turmoil.

It was India all the way that volunteered to rescue Sri Lanka from a financial slippery slope. India ostensibly played a pivotal role in salvaging Sri Lanka from an economic precipice.

Jay Maniyar, an Indian researcher working for the National Maritime Foundation (NMF), New Delhi, conducts an analysis of Chinese ships frequenting exclusive Indian waters and states his findings on the Chinese research vessels and the dubious methods employed by them for spying.

Incidents of Chinese spy vessels in what are supposed to be exclusive Indian waters are no longer a rarity but have become the norm. The latest incident has involved a Chinese spy ship, the Yuan Wang 6, in the Indian Ocean with India, all set to conduct ballistic missile tests from the geostrategic Andaman and Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal. The Yuan Wang class of ships is used to track satellites and intercontinental ballistic missile launches. China differentiates between its spy ships and military vessels, but it may not be long before it dubiously combines the two in the same way that it is using supposedly normal ‘research vessels’ for malign purposes.

 

Chinese spy ships have been regularly visiting the Indian Ocean since China became more assertive about its national and maritime security interests in the region. The deployment of such ships also highlights scant Chinese respect for peace in international waters. China believes that it needs to keep a watch on the activities of the United States of America (USA), its major global challenge, and India, its major regional challenge, in the Indian Ocean. The activities of the Chinese include intelligence gathering, information surveys, and space tracking. Of late, Chinese manoeuvres in the Indian Ocean have increased and have become even more brazen. In August last year, a Chinese spy ship, the Yuan Wang 5, was spotted in the China-leased Hambantota port of Sri Lanka. This led to a spat between New Delhi and Colombo. Chinese spy ships appear immaculately well-dressed, with advanced systems on display. Chinese spy ships are known to cause much confusion and tension in other waters, such as the South and East China Seas, as well. In January 2021, a Chinese survey ship named Xiang Yang Hong 03 was also operating in the Indian Ocean.

 

The scrupulousness of the Chinese has involved spy ships camouflaged as fishing vessels and research ships, which are then spying on Indian assets such as the Andaman and Nicobar islands themselves. India considers the islands to be a national treasure owing to their location in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. The Andaman offer India much geostrategic heft amid a diverse array of threats and challenges in the maritime domain. Japan has expressed interest in basing itself on the islands, but this is as yet undeveloped news. China believes that its interests lie in protecting the geo-economic architecture being gradually created as a result of its renowned Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Be that as it may, the papers relating to the arrival of SHI YAN6 are currently under consideration, and the Chinese government has requested permission to dock their research vessel in Colombo and Hambantota. The timing is approximately one year after the Yuan Wang 5 docked in Sri Lanka. The Chinese embassy in Colombo is handling the matter on behalf of the government of China.

The Chinese research vessel, SHI YAN 6, will arrive in Sri Lanka for marine research activities in late October or early November, but the exact dates are still in the pipeline.

Meanwhile, the Indian Navy Chief, Admiral R. Hari Kumar, had recently highlighted the challenge posed by the Chinese research vessels, which are otherwise free to operate in international waters.

These vessels can track and collect electronic signals. So, when they operate close to ‘our areas of national interest’, then it becomes a challenge. The Indian Navy keeps an eye, and it has ships that monitor them very closely, he said while interacting at a seminar organised by the Chanakya Dialogues and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Described as a research and survey vessel with a carrying capacity of 1115 DWT, the vessel SHI YAN 6 has a draft of 5.3 metres, and overall it is 90.6 metres in length and 17 metres in width.

India has incessantly raised concerns over the impending visit of the Chinese research vessel on the Sri Lankan shores due to the sensitivities of the issue. It has put the Sri Lankan foreign ministry in an awkward position.

Chinese research vessels have been operating in Sri Lankan waters for quite some time on the strength of MoUs signed between the National Aquatic Resources Research and Development Agency and the University of Ruhuna.

”It has been happening for nearly ten years, but India has raised its objections lately that it could pose a danger to sensitive Indian installations in the South”. Foreign ministry sources said

The all-important question that may arise is whether Sri Lanka can refuse to uphold its agreements with China at the request of India.

Can Sri Lanka abolish such agreements unilaterally that may have international ramifications?

The vessel will undertake research jointly with the National Aquatic Resources Research and Development Agency (NARA).

It is no secret that India and China are equally important for Sri Lanka, given the massive amount of Chinese investment in Sri Lanka and India as the immediate neighbour with impregnable cultural links nurtured from the time of great emperor Asoka.

 The Indian media, too, has expressed anxieties over the events taking place in the Indian Ocean and has focused their attention on the visit of a Chinese warship to Colombo recently.

The Indian media said that the Chinese dispatch their vessels to Sri Lanka on a regular basis. Few weeks ago, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Navy warship Hai Yang 24 Hao arrived in the country on a two-day visit.

Understandably, there were trepidations in New Delhi about the capabilities of the Chinese vessel to snoop around on the Indian defence installations in the south while being on its way to the Sri Lankan port.

Besides, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickrememsinghe expressed his reservations about the big power rivalry in the Indian Ocean region.

Sri Lanka will not take part in any “big power rivalry” in the Indian Ocean, and it is unfortunate that Sri Lanka has been made the “punching bag” for Hambantota, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said, weeks after India and China clashed over the docking of a high-tech Chinese ship, Wang Yuan 5, at the country’s Hambantota port last year.

The frequent arrival of Chinese research vessels in Sri Lanka has undoubtedly created a diplomatic flashpoint between Sri Lanka and India, which Sri Lanka needs to resolve through soft diplomatic means.

 

One school of thought is that if MoUs have been signed between Sri Lanka and China, Sri Lanka inevitably has to abide by the rules. Another school of thought is that India’s concerns could be justified if one looks at the complex issue from an Indian perspective and its ideological point of view since Indian power corridors are in a huff over the incessant threats posed by Chinese research vessels making a foray into the Indian Ocean.

 

The Indian concern is that the Chinese may have carried out bottom surface surveys to locate ocean ridges where they could conceal submarines and spy equipment and gather data on the behaviour and patterns of the ocean, which would enable China to determine naval formations. The high-tech survey ships could also listen to highly sensitive communications between Indian security installations, which would create security issues in the Indian security establishment.

 

Sri Lanka is in a dilemma over Chinese high-tech vessels visiting Sri Lankan ports and frequenting Sri Lankan waters. There should be a way out of this problem by initiating a dialogue between India and Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka and China to thrash out the connected issues plaguing them.

 

In the absence of constructive dialogue and assurances from the Chinese authorities to refrain from sending wrong signals and causing hiccups in the Indian security apparatus, it would be difficult to resolve issues on the ground.

 

Indian concerns are vital in every aspect of security in the Indian Ocean, and it is crucial that Sri Lanka take cognizance of these matters.

 

On the other hand, on the northern front, the Chinese government has failed to provide a clear timeline for withdrawing its troops from the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control. It has also not committed to refraining from sending troops to Indian territory in the future. Without these commitments, India would not be able to be assured of stability on the ground. The Chinese attitude on the northern front may have an adverse effect on India when it considers the issues in the Indian Ocean. Hence, it could reflect on Sri Lanka with amplified impulsion.

 As far as the Indian Ocean issues are concerned, a fruitful dialogue with Sri Lanka’s mediation will be one way of resolving the issue without putting Sri Lanka at the receiving end since, as a small entity, Sri Lanka cannot afford to be a threat to a big power like India.

 A mechanism to monitor Chinese vessels through an independent party would offer a plausible solution to the problem in the end. It is said that China is also looking for an ancient shipwreck in the seas off Trincomalee with the help of the Archaeological Department which would further exceed the limits of tolerance.

 As an immediate measure and heeding to Indian concerns, Sri Lanka is devising a standing operation procedure applicable to ships and aircrafts calling on Sri Lankan ports and airports. Sri Lanka was amenable to including amendments to the procedure at the request of India in order to create a conducive and peaceful environment.

 As former US Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger said, if a big power perceives that a small nation is a threat to it, it should be considered a threat to the big power. In this geopolitical scenario, it is vital that Sri Lanka take realistic decisions and make pragmatic moves on the ground while maintaining cordial relations with everybody. Viz-a-vis India and China

 At this point of time one should take into consideration the views expressed by President Ranil Wickremesinghe in New York.

Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, President Wickremesinghe said that someone inquired whether he was pro-Indian. The president answered in the negative, and when asked whether he was pro-Chinese, an emphatic no was the answer. When asked whether he was neutral for that too, the president said no and asserted that he is pro-Sri Lankan.

 “What they don’t understand is that our problems are not the same as those of the big powers. We are ready to work with any actor, either state or non-state actor, meaning that Sri Lanka is ready to work with the West as well as China in the East. We are crucial because our positions are as strategic as any others in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific. We don’t want to get involved in any kind of military alliance. We have to look at geopolitics in our own way. Our problems are mainly economic, social, and ecological, “the president asserted.

 Certainly, Sri Lanka does not want the problems of the Pacific to make their way to the Indian Ocean, he said while speaking about Sri Lanka’s position on the geo-political stage.

 Simultaneously, Sri Lanka considers both India and China equally critical partners in its quest to restructure its external debt. China is one of Sri Lanka’s biggest creditors.

 According to available statistics, Sri Lanka owes $7.1 billion to bilateral creditors, including $3 billion to China.

 The negotiations for Sri Lanka’s external and domestic debt restructuring are scheduled to be concluded by September, and the International Monetary Fund’s review team is already in Colombo to consider the second tranche of its $2.9 billion bailout extended in March this year.

.Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka should stave off any controversy involving the Indian Ocean region, which, from our perspective, should be declared a peace zone devoid of war-mongering threats by superpowers and regional giants trying to extend their writ over smaller nations.