by Vishvanath
A billboard carrying a picture of a gas cylinder, which is President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s election symbol, has been erected on the frontage of UNP headquarters, Sirikotha, at Pita Kotte. The display of any party symbol other than the Elephant at Sirikotha ahead of a presidential election contested by its leader is unprecedented. What does the absence of the Elephant symbol in the upcoming presidential election signify?
It is believed that President Wickremesinghe opted to contest the forthcoming presidential election as an independent candidate because he wanted to forge a broad electoral alliance and enlist the support of even those who would have hesitated to close ranks with the UNP directly. This could be considered a clever campaign strategy, given the sheer number of SLPP and Opposition defectors, who are backing him but wary of joining the UNP. However, it is also possible that having failed to revitalize the UNP during the past two years, Wickremesinghe only made a virtue of necessity by choosing to run for President as an independent candidate. The UNP is still not a shadow of its former self. This may explain why President Wickremesinghe did not accede to the SLPP’s request that a snap general election be held before the presidential poll. The SLPP did not want its electoral strength tested before a parliamentary election for obvious reasons. The next parliament is expected to be hung, and the SLPP’s plan was to secure as many parliamentary seats as possible and try to form a government with the help of others before facing a presidential contest, which it cannot win. President Wickremesinghe would have agreed to dissolve Parliament if he had been confident that the UNP would be able to fare well at a general election.
Coalition politics is not something uncommon in the modern world, especially in the countries where the Proportional Representation system is in operation. Sri Lanka has seen political alliances at almost all national elections including those which were held under the first-past-the-post system. Smaller parties used to gravitate around their main counterparts, such as the UNP and the SLFP, which opted for coalitions to enhance their chances of victory and not because they were too weak to go it alone. But, today, the situation is different; the main parties have lost their political vigor and popular appeal.
The SLFP is in total disarray; it has been split into three groups. It has faced discord, rifts and splits during the past several decades, but never has it been so weak as it is today. Two of the three SLFP factions have pledged their support for President Wickremesinghe and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa. The other one led by former President Maithripala Sirisena was expected to back Wijeyadasa Rajapaksa in the presidential fray, but Sirisena is still straddling the fence. It looks as if the main candidates had decided to have no truck with him for fear of losing the support of the Catholic community, which is demanding that he be prosecuted for his failure to prevent the Easter Sunday terror attacks in 2019, when he was the President.
The UNP has not recovered from the breakaway of the Sajith faction, which formed the SJB. It was expected to be able to recover lost ground after its leader Wickremesinghe’s elevation to the presidency, but it has failed to reinvigorate itself and regain the support base it lost to the SJB. Speculation was rife in political circles that President Wickremesinghe would engineer mass crossovers from the SJB and declare his intention to contest the presidential election last May Day. But his plan went awry and he had to wait until late last month to declare his candidacy. The SLPP became his victim instead. Today, he is dependent more on the SLPP dissidents than on his own party, the UNP, in his bid to win the presidency.
The SLPP, which is in the clutches of the Rajapaksa family, has lost nearly two thirds of its parliamentary group members to President Wickremesinghe. The Rajapaksas have sought to retain their grip on the SLPP leadership by fielding Namal Rajapaksa in the presidential election. They would have nominated Dhammika Perera to contest the presidential election as he is not a professional politician capable of posing a threat to the interests of the Rajapaksa family. But he pulled out at the eleventh hour, and thereafter the SLPP leaders did not want anyone other than a member of the Rajapaksa family to run for president. So, Namal is in the race.
The SLPP’s electoral weakness is bound to be exposed at the forthcoming presidential election, and if it fails to obtain a significant number of votes, it will have its work cut out to remain relevant in national politics. Founded in 2016, it scored three impressive electoral wins in a row—in 2018, 2019 and 2020—but today it is struggling not to win but to make a possible electoral setback less ignominious. However, it has not compromised its symbol, the Lotus bud.
The JVP has reimaged and repackaged itself as the NPP (National People’s Alliance). The NPP’s symbol, the Compass, has come to overshadow that of the JVP—the Bell. The need for it to do so has arisen because it lacks adaptability owing to its core Marxist ideology, which has lost its appeal to the public at large. The NPP has chosen to embrace policies that are antithetical to those of the JVP; it has undertaken to continue with the IMF programme in case of winning the presidency and forming the next government, and chosen to mend fences with India, whose ‘expansionism’ it sought to defeat by unleashing terror in the late 1980s. At this rate, it may not be possible to prevent the JVP from losing its relevance in politics. Its main attraction to the youth was its revolutionary ideology, which has now been diluted.
The Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) is also in a dilemma, unable to decide whom to back at the upcoming presidential election. Its symbol, the House, will not be on the ballot paper. The ITAK is also experiencing dissension, and some of its members are said to be supporting former TNA MP Pakkiyaselvam Ariyanethiran, who has come forward as the common Tamil presidential candidate.
The SJB has been able to retain its political identity in the presidential race. Its leader Premadasa is contesting under its symbol, the Telephone.
Most of the established political parties are facing the challenge of maintaining their identities due to several factors. They have not evolved as modern political organizations for want of dynamic leadership and owing to their outdated ideologies. They have also been affected by dissension, defections owing to lack of internal democracy and the vise-like hold their leaders have retained on them. They are also characterized by inefficiency, lack of vision and direction. In short, their leaders have subjugated their wellbeing to self-interest.
