The government, which made a hasty retreat with the entire Cabinet save the Prime Minister resigning following the Mirihana mayhem on March 31, has regrouped and is now ready for a counterattack while its rivals are intensifying their protests seeking its ouster. It does not seem willing to give in without a fight.
The government has ruled out the possibility of its resignation. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Office announced on Thursday (21), in no uncertain terms, that the incumbent government would continue under the leadership of PM Mahinda Rajapaksa. It issued a media statement that all SLPP MPs present at the meeting had confirmed that they had faith in Prime Minister Rajapaksa. It however did not say whether the SLPP had enough numbers in the House to muster a simple majority, and how many of its MPs had attended the group meeting at the parliamentary complex.
The government, having thus thrown down the gauntlet, what the protesters’ reaction will be remains to be seen. The protest at the Galle Face esplanade continues, and a surge in the number of the agitators there is expected during the weekend. The death of a protester in police shooting at Rambukkana on Tuesday (19) has provided them with a fresh rallying point.
Trade unions are also planning a protest week, which is scheduled to commence soon. Unlike the youth protest at the Galle Face Green, an industrial action is bound to hurt the government and the economy hugely. The PM’s office announcement is likely to incense the anti-government protesters further and drive them to step up their campaign.
Another rift in govt.?
The SLPP dissidents were not among the MPs who participated at the government group meeting on Thursday. They claim to have as many as 40 SLPP MPs on their side. Three MPs, representing the Muslim political parties, have recently pulled out of the government, further reducing the SLPP’s numbers in the parliament.
Curiously, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who is the head of the government and the Cabinet presumably did not attend Thursday’s meeting; the PM’s Office has not mentioned him as one of those present there. It says former Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa was present. Why didn’t the President chair the SLPP group meeting? Was it an emergency meeting, or didn’t the President want to travel all the way to the parliament in view of public protests? But the government group could have met at the President’s House or Temple Trees or at the SLPP headquarters. Why didn’t it do so? These are some of the questions that the government should answer if the above-mentioned media communique is not to lend credence to the claim being made in political circles that the relations between the PM and the President have turned sour.
One may not be in a position either to confirm or to deny rumors being spread about the strained relations among the government leaders, but it is obvious that the PM is not well disposed towards the new Cabinet although he is said to be fond of its members personally; most of them are the children of his friends in politics. Being partial to the party’s old guard, the PM wanted senior government MPs in the new Cabinet, but most of the current ministers are new comers.
President Rajapaksa has apparently tried to defuse pressure in the polity by making the new Cabinet appointments; there are no allegations against the young ministers though it is too early to say whether their lack of experience will stand in the way of their performance. Handling the public service, which is full of hard nuts as well as crooks, is no easy task, especially for junior politicians. Not even senior ministers were able to control institutions such as the Ceylon Electricity Board, where officials have become a law unto themselves.
Karmic forces at work?
In October 2018, the SLPP at the behest of the then President Maithripala Sirisena tried to dislodge the yahapalana government, which had become highly unpopular in the country but had a working majority in the Parliament thanks to help from other parties such as the TNA and the JVP.
Today, the boot is on the other foot. The SJB consisting of former yahapalana politicians, the JVP and the TNA are demanding the resignation of the government in view of protests although it claims to have an absolute majority in the House. The Opposition is now doing to the SLPP what the latter did to the UNP-led yahapalana administration about four years ago. One may wonder whether karmic forces are at work.
Governments’ diversionary tactics
The government would never have thought it would have to offer to abolish the 20th Amendment to the Constitution in less than two years of its introduction. After all, the SLPP introduced it for a purpose and made quite an effort to secure its passage by enlisting the support of 11 Opposition MPs to raise a two-thirds majority. The government group initially consisted of 145 MPs. The 20th Amendment received 156 votes. It takes a lot of funds and energy to engineer crossovers in this country, as is public knowledge.
Prime Minister Rajapaksa has undertaken to have the 20th Amendment done away with, and the 19th Amendment restored with some changes. This has been his compromise formula while the anti-government protesters are demanding the ouster of both the President and the government. Within hours of the PM declaring in the House that he was for the abolition of the 20th Amendment, the SJB presented the draft 21st Amendment to the Constitution to the parliament. Maybe it wanted to counter the PM’s move, and set a difficult target for the government.
The Opposition is trying to corner the government further and leave it with no choice but to support the 21st Amendment. Will the government agree to abolish the executive presidency? It has enough numbers to thwart the Opposition’s attempt to pass a constitutional amendment; it needs only 75 MPs to do so in the 225-member House, where a special majority means the support of at least 150 MPs for a Bill or a resolution. Will the government go ahead with its efforts to bring back the 19th Amendment and urge the Opposition to support it? If it does so, the parliament will be divided between two proposed constitutional amendments.
19th Amendment and the Executive Presidency
If the 20th Amendment is abolished and a new amendment brought in to restore the 19th Amendment, the position of the PM will be strengthened at the expense of the Executive President; or, in other words, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, will not be able to hold Cabinet posts and will be totally dependent on his parliamentary group as never before. His position will be worse than that of President Maithripala Sirisena from 2015 to 2019; the latter could hold ministerial portfolios as the 19th Amendment was to become fully effective after the expiration of his term. President Rajapaksa did not face the full force of the 19th Amendment as the SLPP introduced the 20th Amendment in a hurry.
The government is in a desperate situation with the economic crisis worsening and public anger increasing, and President Rajapaksa is apparently left with no alternative but to offer at least a substantial reform package. But will he be willing to have his wings clipped and his position thereby undermined? One finds it next to impossible to let go of power after savoring it.
Mismanaged mandates
Popular mandates are like driving licenses, which need to be renewed. They also do not give governments unbridled power to do as they please. Most of all, mandates have to be properly managed if a government is not to have the public turning against it.
The current administration is in trouble because it did not care to manage its mandates received at the Local Government elections in 2018, the presidential election in 2019 and the general election in 2020. If it had used its mandates wisely and trodden cautiously on the economic and political fronts, heeding public opinion and handling the economy efficiently, the present crises would not have come about. It has now been revealed that the Mahinda Rajapaksa government tackled a similar economic crisis in 2009 with the help of the IMF by listening to economic experts and allowing them to do what had to be done. President (Mahinda) Rajapaksa was struggling to maintain his parliamentary majority at the time, and therefore he did not want to take chances. The country was also fighting a war. The incumbent government did not care to listen to experts and adopt emergency measures to put the economy on an even keel because it was overconfident that it would be able to bring the situation under control with ease.
The government seems to think that agitations will peter out if it holds its ground for a few more weeks, but the worst is yet to come. Economic crisis and political trouble are conjoined twins. Debt sustainability and political stability are prerequisites for the IMF bailout package, without which the economy is bound to collapse sooner than expected. While negotiations are on with the IMF and aid donors are being requested to help restructure debt, the government has to increase the inflow of foreign exchange, which hinges on tourist arrivals, exports and remittances from expatriate Sri Lankan workers. Tourists avoid trouble spots, and expatriates are not willing to send their hard-earned money here through the banking system because they are fed up with the government. Protests and strikes take a heavy toll on political stability and national production.
What will be the political and economic fallouts of the government’s determined efforts to outmaneuver its rivals, especially the ordinary people on the warpath due to economic difficulties? This is the ‘billion’ dollar question.
