by Vishvanath
The ruling SLPP has suffered such a political setback that it has had to put off the Local Government (LG) polls scheduled for March 2022. It has extended the terms of all LG bodies until March 2023, thus effectively foreclosing the possibility of elections to them this year. It is doubtful whether any intelligent person will fall for the government’s claim that Covid-19 is the reason for its shameful action. That it has bungled on all fronts big time and is not ready for an election is only public knowledge.
The SLPP crows about its popular mandates. It seeks to justify all its actions by claiming that as many as 6.9 million people have voted for it. But mandates are like driving/riding licenses, which have to be renewed every five years or so. The LG elections would have put the government to the test effectively, and the SLPP does not want its real electoral strength exposed at this juncture. Its performance at recently-held cooperative elections has been below par; it has lost some of the co–op societies it previously controlled. The people are extremely angry, as evident from their protests. They are undergoing untold hardships, which they believe could have been averted if the government had managed the economy properly.
Even some prominent SLPP politicians such as Sports Minister Namal Rajapaksa, a member of the ruling family, have admitted that there has been a sharp drop in the government’s approval ratings, but expressed confidence that it will be able to improve its performance with the passage of time. Hope is said to spring eternal.
The JVP as a backseat driver
The Opposition has declared victory against the SLPP prematurely. It claims to have checkmated the government. True, the government is on a very sticky wicket and fears elections, but its difficulties are not due to the Opposition’s campaign against it. It has ruined things for itself. The Opposition’s bark is worse than its bite.
The Opposition is all at sea. There are three parties all out to capitalize on the SLPP’s trouble—the SLFP, the SJB and the JVP. Of them, only the JVP remains somewhat focused, but apart from criticizing the government, it has not been able to convince the public that it will be able to hoist the country out of the current economic mess. It is a good backseat driver; it claims to know the way but cannot drive.
Most social media posts are favourable to the JVP, but ‘likes’ and ‘hits’ do not necessarily translate into votes at elections. The only political institution the JVP has run so far on its own is the Tissamaharama Pradeshiya Sabha, which it lost and has not been able to win back. In a war of words with the JVP, Dr. Sarath Amunugama, once, said in the parliament that the JVP had not even managed a petti kade (a makeshift wayside kiosk) although it had been telling governments how to run the country.
The JVP squandered the best opportunity it got in 2004 to prove itself as a party capable of governing the country. It secured 39 seats in the parliament as a constituent of the SLFP-led UPFA, but pulled out of the Chandrika Kumaratunga administration after one year. Its leaders would have been able to gain some experience in statecraft and impress the public with their skills they claim to possess if they had remained in that government a little longer, and continued to function as ministers.
The SJB lacks focus
The SJB does not seem to know what it is doing. Its leader Sajith Premadasa, who is also the Leader of the Opposition, is busy touring the North, and making speeches full of hyperbole and rhetoric. He keeps repeating himself most of the time. The SBJ will gain very little politically by campaigning in the North and the East, where the TNA and the SLMC rule the roost. Premadasa has to look after the interests of Sri Lankans in all parts of the country, but at this particular juncture, his focus should be on areas where he could garner votes if he wants to win a future election.
Premadasa cannot muster enough popular support under his own steam in the North and the East to the extent of being able to challenge the government politically and electorally. The only way he could turn the tables on the government is to eat into the SLPP’s vote base and win over the floating voters, in the areas where the SLPP fared well at the last three elections. This is not something he will be able to achieve by simply making fiery speeches and distributing freebies; he has to present to the people an alternative programme of action, and convince them that he is ready to lead the nation and capable of doing that. He and most of his MPs were members of the UNF government (2015-19), which failed pathetically, and the memories of their failure are still fresh in the minds of the people.
Meanwhile, the SJB has also lost some of its MPs to the SLPP and is experiencing internal problems. On Sunday, its MP Kumara Welgama told reporters at Galle Face, after a ceremony to mark the 123rd Birth Anniversary of former Prime Minister S. W. R. D. Bandaranaike, that the SJB was in a mess, and he was there temporarily.
SLFP: Fishing but no fish
The SLFP has been fishing in troubled waters, but has not been able to reel any fish in. It has been trying to function as part of the Opposition while being in the government and savoring power. It is apparently laboring under the delusion that the SLPP’s loss will be its gain automatically. But the votes that the SLPP loses will be divided among other parties as well and there is the likelihood of many SLPP supporters abstaining from voting at the next election as they lack faith in other political parties.
SLFP leader and former President Maithripala Sirisena apparently thinks attack is the best form of defense. It is now openly criticizing the government and responding to the SLPP members who take swipes at him at every turn. He has publicly declared his intention of forming a new political alliance to contest future elections. The JVP has already ruled out the possibility of closing ranks with the SLFP, which is making overtures. The SJB is also not likely to have Sirisena as an ally because the Presidential Commission of Inquiry, which probed the Easter Sunday attacks (2019), has recommended criminal proceedings against him for his failure to prevent the tragedy. The Catholic church is openly demanding action against him, and the SJB has been cranking up pressure on the government to implement the commission report fully. It will not be able to reconcile having him as an ally and demanding action against those responsible for the serious security lapses that led to the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks on churches and hotels.
So, the SJB is likely to consider Sirisena a political liability although its leader and Sirisena have been thick. One may recall that in Oct. 2018, having sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and appointed Mahinda Rajapaksa to that post, Sirisena, as the President, revealed that he had offered the premiership to Sajith on several occasions previously, in a bid to keep the SLFP-UNP alliance intact, but the latter had turned down his offer repeatedly. Sirisena also did not back Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the presidential race, as he did not want to campaign against Sajith. But there is nothing that politicians in pursuit of power hesitate to sacrifice to achieve their goals, and Sajith will be wary of having Sirisena as a partner.
What future holds for SLPP
The SLPP’s future and that of the Rajapaksa family are inextricably linked. Those who voted for the SLPP did so because they had faith in Mahinda Rajapaksa and his brother, Gotabaya. They expected Mahinda to provide unwavering political leadership to the country, the way he had done during the war years (2005 to 2009), and Gotabaya to develop the country as he had turned Colombo into something like a modern city. But today Mahinda as the Prime Minister has lost interest in leading the country, and chosen to lie low, for all practical purposes. Gotabaya has not been able to live up to people’s high expectations. The youth have lost hope as could be seen from their hate posts on the Internet, and other forms of protest.
The general perception is that Basil is controlling the SLPP, and many people do not have such a high opinion about him. He too has not been able to perform the miracles that his loyalists said he was capable of. The economy is in a shambles and people are undergoing tremendous suffering. Basil’s recently unveiled relief package has not been able to help change public opinion in favor of the government because people are aware that money will be printed to fund it and the inflation will further rise as a result. The main problem that the government is facing cannot be solved by throwing money around. It is basically the people’s disillusionment with the government and the SLPP leadership, and the perception that the ruling family and its cronies are enjoying life while the ordinary people are suffering.
The current administration looks like an extension of the Mahinda Rajapaksa regime, which became highly unpopular and fell in 2015. Even if the economy recovers, and people’s intense suffering abates by any chance, public opinion may not still change in favor of the government. So, it may not be able to avert electoral defeats by postponing elections.
