By Kassapa
This week’s general election will be a watershed moment in the country’s post-independence political history just as much as the September 21 presidential election was. It will provide a stamp of approval for the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) gaining control of the Legislature when it has already secured the Executive.
It will be naïve not to expect the JJB to win. Even their rival parties have readily conceded this, pitching their campaigns to become a ‘strong opposition’. The only unknown is the margin of the JJB victory. Most estimates range from 115 to 130 seats. A two-thirds majority is not expected to materialise.
When the final results of the general election are recorded, it will provide President Anura Kumara Dissanayake with the mandate he needs, a Parliament that can carry out his ambitious program of socio-political reforms. In the process, he will be strengthening his position as leader of both the JJB as well as the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP).
What will become of the leaders of other major parties? Once the dust from the general election settles and the next Parliament convenes, that will be the next political drama to watch out for. Many a change could be expected.
The leader whose future is most uncertain is Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB)’s Sajith Premadasa. Having lost two successive presidential elections and, if he does lead his fledgling party to two general election defeats, Premadasa will find himself in the same position at which he demanded Ranil Wickremesinghe’s ouster from the United National Party (UNP) leadership.
The presidential and general election campaigns also laid bare Premadasa’s incompetencies as a leader and a poor communicator both on public platforms (where his speeches were widely mocked) and within party enclaves. Even at the time of writing there is speculation of mounting a leadership challenge against Premadasa from within the SJB. The election is the only factor that is keeping a lid on the issue.
Several outcomes are possible. There could be a leadership challenge where Premadasa would either prevail (like his father Ranasinghe Premadasa did during the impeachment crisis over thirty years ago) or perish politically, conceding the SJB leadership to someone more acceptable to the party and the people. On the other hand, if leading stalwarts in the SJB are unable to pluck up sufficient courage to challenge Premadasa, they may choose to return to their political ‘ancestral home’, the UNP.
Meanwhile, the UNP is also in a state of flux. Former President Ranil Wickremesinghe is not contesting the general election and is not on the party’s National List either. However, he hasn’t retired from politics. After the UNP’s crushing defeat at the 2020 general election, Wickremesinghe initially took a back seat, making noises about grooming the next party leader, only to return ten months later to Parliament. A repeat performance of this scenario cannot be ruled out. If he chooses to do so, there will be hardly anyone who will be able to look him in the eye and say, “for God’s sake, go!” although Ravi Karunanayake for one would dearly like to do so.
The situation in the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna is much less complicated. Despite Namal Rajapaksa’s disastrous results in the presidential election, he is the party’s chosen successor by virtue of the fact that he has the correct surname. Even if the SLPP records another poor, paltry performance at the general election, he will declare that it is time to regroup and plan for the next election and soldier on. Those who remained with the SLPP for the general election are ‘hardcore’ Rajapaksa acolytes and are likely to stick with him still. As for Mahinda Rajapaksa, he did publicly say that there is no retirement for politicians. With his party shattered into smithereens, the older Rajapaksa will stay on as the nominal leader, if only to ensure that the succession to son Namal is smooth and strife-free.
Perhaps the worst possible fate will befall those SLPP politicians who cosied up to Wickremesinghe during his Presidency. They did recognise that the SLPP was a lost cause and supported Wickremesinghe’s presidential election campaign rather than Rajapaksa’s. Now, they have formed the New Democratic Front (NDF) alongside the UNP and are contesting together using Wickremesinghe’s ‘gas cylinder’ symbol. Even for the few from this camp that make it to the next Parliament, there will be a question of political identity: do they remain as a separate entity or become part and parcel of the UNP?
Patali Champika Ranawaka and Wimal Weerawansa, two leaders who took a backseat at the election and are not contesting, will be watching these developments with interest.
Ranawaka initially quit the SJB, then endorsed Premadasa for the presidential election only to withdraw his support for the general election. He will be monitoring developments in the SJB with much at stake for him. This ambitious former minister can either to step in as a potential alternative to Premadasa or, if the SJB hits rock-bottom, promote his own Eksath Janaraja Peramuna (ERP) to the public as a right-of-centre alternative to the JJB.
Weerawansa joined forces with Dilith Jayaweera’s Mawbima Janatha Pakshaya (MJP) where Weerawansa’s political buddy Udaya Gammanpila is trying to hog the limelight. The MJP’s ultra-nationalistic campaign bordering on communal hatred resonates well with Weerawansa’s political ideology but the fact that he has chosen not to contest the election suggests that he has reservations about his political future. This ‘wait and see’ attitude from the former JVPer means that he is playing his cards close to his chest. Jayaweera’s sole ambition is to creep into Parliament from the MJP but even that appears unlikely at this time. If the MJP ends with no representation, Weerawansa may well go his own way.
All this points to major changes in the leaderships and hierarchies of most mainstream political parties after the election with the exception of the ruling JJB. Whether that will usher in a change for the better in the country’s political culture, only time will tell.
