It is unthinkable that Cabraal was acting of his own accord. He must have been echoing His Master’s Voice because he was being asked to do so by the powers that be. Cabraal is no great economic savant- he once said printing money does not lead to inflation- but even he must have known that what he is saying did not make much sense and the reality is different to the rosy picture he paints.
Every government makes mistakes, especially when confronted by challenging situations. The better regimes learn from their mistakes and improve their record. Those that lack professionalism and discipline continue their wayward ways. The latter is where the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government belongs and the best example of this is how it has managed the current shortage of electricity.
Sri Lankans are no stranger to power cuts; it has experienced them many times before. However, those crises have been because of the country’s dependence on hydropower reservoirs which become depleted when drought prevails. Since then, steps have been taken to reduce this dependence on hydropower by significantly increasing the provision of other electricity generating options.
The current crisis has nothing to do with hydropower. It has nothing to do with a shortage of fuel required for electricity generation either although that appears to be the case. The reason for the power cuts is very simple: Sri Lanka lacks the foreign exchange reserves to purchase fuel. Therefore, without sufficient fuel, the country’s power plants cannot generate adequate power to add to the national grid.
The government did not- or could not- admit to this publicly. So, we were treated to lectures by Central Bank Governor turned National List parliamentarian turned Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal on how there is no foreign exchange crisis nor a need to run to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and how, with this prudent economic management, Sri Lanka will be very prosperous very soon.
It is unthinkable that Cabraal was acting of his own accord. He must have been echoing His Master’s Voice because he was being asked to do so by the powers that be. Cabraal is no great economic savant- he once said printing money does not lead to inflation- but even he must have known that what he is saying did not make much sense and the reality is different to the rosy picture he paints.
Then we have the Minister of Power Gamini Lokuge giving us repeated assurances that there would be no power cuts. Several times, Lokuge, a trade unionist known for strong arm tactics in the decades he spent in the now decrepit United National Party (UNP), was caught napping as power cuts became a harsh reality, at times the very next day after he went public with his solemn promises.
At the other end of the spectrum, we have another minister, Minister of Energy Udaya Gammanpila who has become an unlikely advocate for truth. Burdened with managing petroleum resources Gammanpila has been quick to pass the buck saying there is no electricity or fuel crisis as such; the real crisis is in the lack of dollars to buy fuel and that until that is resolved, there will be no electricity.
Gammanpila too is of course yet another opportunistic politician. We recall how, in November 2014, he decamped from the ruling coalition to support Maithripala Sirisena only to return to Mahinda Rajapaksa’s arms a few days later, withdrawing everything he said about Rajapaksa and his decision to quit the then government. Since then, he has been a loyal and faithful servant of the Rajapaksas.
This time though, Gammanpila was thrown under the bus and made to look the bad boy who was not releasing fuel to produce electricity. The public comments of both Gammanpila and Lokuge reached such a level that it appeared as if this was only a fight between the two ministers who couldn’t work together and reach an agreement- and that the entire country had to endure power cuts as a result.
This week, Gammanpila didn’t mince his words. He said that the government had to decide whether it spends the limited foreign exchange on items such as apples and grapes or spent it purchasing fuel. “People need to ask themselves whether they will eat apples and grapes and stay in the dark or they prefer to have uninterrupted electricity,” Gammanpila asked in his characteristic loquacious style.
What Gammanpila was saying was also fast becoming a reality. A government, represented by the likes of Lokuge which was assuring there would be no power shortages only weeks ago was suddenly implementing two to three hour power cuts. This week, that abruptly increased exponentially to seven and half hours per day, causing a crisis in the business sector and an angry backlash from the public.
Another curious feature that was seen throughout this saga was that there were no restrictions on the use of electricity. Even when there were power cuts for several hours a day, there was no ban on neon signs and the use of air-conditioners. Bans on usage of electricity for such ‘non-essential’ purposes have been a routine feature whenever power cuts were implemented previously in the country.
The best-or worst- was yet to come. On Wednesday, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa chaired a meeting of all the relevant ministers which included Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa as well. At the meeting, President Rajapaksa directed that power cuts will cease from March 5 and that enough stocks of fuel be provided to generate an uninterrupted supply of electricity.
This beggars belief. On the face of it, it appears that all it took was a meeting with the President to resolve this crisis. If that is indeed so, why did that not happen earlier, when it could have averted hardship for millions, including students sitting the Advanced Level Examination? Why did the nation have to go through such agony if the power cuts could have been avoided by a presidential directive?
Still, we have no details of how this seemingly miraculous feat will be achieved. Common sense-and Udaya Gammanpila- tell us that this will only be possible if there is an adequate fuel supply for which there should an adequate supply of dollars to purchase them. For weeks, Gammanpila has been telling us, ‘Show me the dollars and I will give you fuel’. So, at whose expense are the dollars coming from?
The general suspicion is that Wednesday’s announcement that power cuts will end from March 5 was a temporary solution aimed at addressing public anger. The real question as to how adequate fuel supplies will be funded remains unanswered. It just maybe that the government will grit its teeth and run to the IMF asking for help after all. Then, it will throwing Governor Cabraal under the bus!
