Lankan middle class proves Lincoln wrong

By Vishvanath

Humans are thought to be intelligent enough to learn from their mistakes and refrain from repeating them; even most animals are capable of doing so. Hence it is said that there is a limit to humans being fooled. Abraham Lincoln it was who famously said, “You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” But is this true of the middle-class Sri Lankans, where their political decisions are concerned? This is the question that one asks oneself when one sees how easily politicians take them for a ride.

There has been no consensus among scholars on the definition of the middle class although certain criteria such as education, occupation, income and social status are used for classification purposes. So, the term, middle class, is often used loosely to refer to the segment of a society between the poor and the rich.

Sri Lankan middle class may not be as strong as others numerically, and it has shrunk considerably during the last couple of years due to the economic fallout of the pandemic, as former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe argued at a recent forum, but politicians woo it as it is thought to be capable of forming and shaping public opinion far more effectively than the rich and the poor. The so-called floating voters are mostly members of the middle class because they are politically conscious and active and not faithful to politicians or political parties as such. The emergence of social media has enabled the middle-class voters to play an effective role in shaping public opinion. Hence politicians’ keenness to endear themselves to middle class voters and enlist their support.          

Ranawaka and 43 Brigade

Political leaders are vying with one another to form associations to attract members of the middle class and thereby gain a boost for their election campaigns. The latest outfit striving to achieve that goal is Champika Ranawaka’s 43 Brigade, which aims to rally the beneficiaries of free education purportedly to help the country achieve progress. Ranawaka insists that it is not a political movement, but the truth is otherwise.   

Uneasy lies the head of any leader who has Ranawaka as a member of his team, for the latter is too ambitious to play second fiddle to anyone or stay in one party for a long time. He has gone on record as saying that the SJB, of which he is a member, is not capable of ushering in national progress under its own steam, and therefore the need for a movement like 43 Brigade has arisen.

Ranawaka is a man with a mission—in a hurry. It is said that he who pursues the stag regards not the hare. For Champika political parties are only stepping stones to better positions in politics. He has been with the JVP, the Sihala Urumaya, the Hela Urumaya, the SLFP-led UPFA, the UNF, and the UNP. Now, he is leading the 43 Brigade, which is a political movement in all but name, aimed at promoting him as a presidential candidate.

That Ranawaka is trying to do an Emmanuel Macron (of France) is no secret. A political greenhorn, Macron became the President of France, as the people were fed up with the main political parties and their candidates. In Sri Lanka, too, a similar situation has arisen. People are disillusioned with the SLFP, the UNP and their offshoots, the SLPP and the SJB respectively. The TNA is also losing ground as can be seen from the sharp drop in the number of its seats in the parliament over the years.

So, Ranawaka is using 43 Brigade to promote himself while being a member of the SJB. Leader of the SJB and the Opposition Sajith Premadasa has not taken kindly to Ranawaka’s new movement because he knows it for what it really is. He was a notable absentee at the National Convention of 43 Brigade held recently at Monarch Hotel, Sri Jayewardenepura. It was however attended by SJB MPs Ranjith Maddumabandara, Thalatha Athukorale, Kumara Welgama and Mano Ganeshan.

43 Brigade vs Viyathmaga

Ranawaka, an engineer-turned-politician, seems to have studied how President Gotabaya Rajapaksa rallied the support of the middle class by forming Viyathmaga, to kindle hopes of the public, shore up his image as a technocrat capable of making a difference in politics, and gaining a boost for his presidential election campaign. Viyathmaga, helped promote Gotabaya as a no-nonsense technocrat who would put in place a meritocracy after securing the executive presidency. Consisting of academics, intellectuals, professionals, business leaders, journalists and other opinion leaders, Viyathmaga was Gotabaya’s answer to the National Movement for Social Justice (NMSJ), which under the late Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha’sleadership was instrumental in turning public opinion in favor of Maithripala Sirisena in the presidential fray in late 2014, and enabled his victory the following year, paving the way for the Yahapalana rule.

Ranawaka’s 43 Brigade is also his answer to the JVP-led National People’s Power (NPP), an electoral alliance formed to rally the influential members of the middle class such as academics, professionals, intellectuals and others behind the JVP. The NPP has been able to appeal to young Sri Lankans as could be seen from a surfeit of social media posts supporting the outfit. It is also sure to gain a tremendous boost from recent goon attacks on JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Colombo and Gampaha. Organized groups threw eggs at him in Pettah first during an NPP protest march last week, and again at the NPP’s district convention in Gampaha last Sunday. Two of the egg throwers were caught by the JVP supporters and handed over to the Police. They have been found to be employees of a security firm with links to the government.

The NMSJ has lost momentum as a socio-political movement since the demise of Sobitha Thera and the disastrous yahapalana rule it helped bring about. It may be that Ranawaka is also trying to attract those who were supportive of the NMSJ previously but are now disillusioned. Sobitha Thera himself was resentful at the time of his untimely death. He did his best to pressure President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to carry out their promises to the NMSJ and the public, but without success.

What the incumbent government is doing is exactly the opposite of what its leaders promised during Viyathmagameetings prior to the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019 and 2020 respectively. They pledged to protect strategic national assets, restore the rule of law, eliminate bribery and corruption and manage the economy efficiently, but none of these promises have been carried out. The pandemic is not the actual reason for their failure to do so. Covid-19 cannot prevent a government from restoring the rule of law and fighting bribery and corruption, can it? Most other countries, which were affected by the pandemic, are now on the path to economic recovery as their economies were managed properly. Many of the prominent Viyathmaga members however have stood to gain; they have secured plum positions in the state sector, and some of them have even entered the parliament.  

Signs are that the NPP is becoming a vehicle for the JVP, which is striving to increase the number of its parliamentary seats. 43 Brigade is only a political ladder for an ambitious politician aspiring to the highest position in the country. Viyathmaga is withering away, but the government will try to revitalize it ahead of future elections.   

Going by the manner in which crafty politicians are taking the members of Sri Lanka’s middle class for a ride although they are thought to make rational decisions, politically, economically or otherwise, one cannot be faulted if one concludes that they have proved Lincoln wrong, for there is no end to wily politicians fooling them.