Election to the Elpitiya Pradeshiya Sabha, concluded last Saturday, has generated much discussion. Many an interpretation has been offered, some of it founded on inaccurate assumptions. While the results of an isolated local council must not be used to extrapolate the potential outcome of the general election, the peoples’ verdict in Elpitiya does offer some important insights, especially as the country prepares for the general election in a fortnight.
Elections to this particular local council were held in this manner because its scheduled poll, which was to be held along with other local councils in the country, was halted for legal reasons. Its significance lies in the fact that it is the only election between the presidential poll and the general election, in the context of Anura Kumara Dissanayake being elected President on September 21, albeit with less than 50 per cent of the vote.
Where most discussions err with regard to the Elpitiya results is in calculating the number of seats won by the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) which won the contest and pointing out that they failed to win even a simple majority of the seats. The JJB won fifteen seats while the collective opposition also has a total of fifteen seats. Even seasoned politicians took to the media to interpret this as a result which means that, if this trend is replicated countrywide, the JJB will not win a simple majority at the general election.
Such conclusions are quite simply inaccurate. This is because the allocation of seats for local councils differ drastically from the manner in which seats are allocated in Parliament at a general election. The former utilises a hybrid system, a complex combination between a first-past-the-post system for the wards and the proportional representation (PR) system. Also, even parties which poll a fewer number of votes are allowed seats, as there is no ‘cut-off’ point that eliminates parties from representation. In contrast, at the general election allocation of seats is based solely on the PR system and also has a ‘cut-off’ point which eliminates parties which do not meet a threshold percentage of votes.
As a consequence of this, the only accurate interpretation of the Elpitiya results should be based on the percentage of votes obtained by the respective political parties and what that signifies. For the record, the JJB polled 47.6 per cent, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) 21.8 per cent and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) 9.9. per cent of the votes. The Peoples’ Alliance (PA), representing a faction of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) polled 7.1 per cent. The United National Party (UNP) was not directly represented at this election.
Based purely on percentages and in comparison to the overall vote at the presidential election, the JJB has improved its vote, the SJB’s percentage has declined and the SLPP has managed to improve its share.
However that if one were to compare the voter percentages of the Bentara-Elpitiya electorate (of which the Elpitiya Pradeshiya Sabha is part of) at the presidential election with last week’s results, the JJB vote has declined from 49.3 per cent to 47.6 per cent while the SLPP vote has risen from 3.5 per cent to 9.9per cent. The SJB’s percentage has dipped from 27.3 per cent to 21.8 per cent.
Such changes should never be interpreted in an absolute manner because many other factors are at play at a local election. Voters are closer to the candidates at a local election and may vote for someone they are personally aware of even if they are from a political party they do not endorse. Nevertheless, there are still some important messages from the voter at Elpitiya to the major parties.
The JJB can be satisfied that it has more or less maintained the level of support it had at the presidential election, over a month later. In that sense, the government can rest assured that it is still on the right track and has not committed any major blunders that warrants an erosion of its vote.
However, the JJB must guard against two issues at the general election. First is what maybe called the ‘Anura factor’. A proportion of the vote received by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake on September 21 was from voters who specifically trusted his credentials. It may not necessarily follow that they will vote for the JJB on November 14 unless they are presented with worthy candidates.
Secondly, the Elpitiya result demonstrates that there certainly is no Tsunami of votes heading towards the JJB at the general election. This flies in the face of some predictions of a two-thirds majority for the party. It is still safe to assume, contrary to opposition claims, that the JJB will secure a comfortable working majority of about 115 to 125 seats, but the government will need to sustain their current momentum to get to that number and work even harder in the remaining fortnight, if they want more.
As for the main opposition party, the SJB, the results from Elpitiya are grim. It suggests that support for the party is indeed falling significantly. The shenanigans indulged in by some SJB candidates and aspiring nominees in the public domain in the lead up to nominations did not help their cause. Rather, it reinforced the image of a divided, dispirited and disgruntled party. Based on all these factors, the SJB is likely to fall well short of fifty seats on November 14.
The SLPP increased its share of the vote slightly at Elpitiya. That is too little and too isolated a factor to suggest an overall trend in favour of the party. If anything, the scandals that emerged regarding the likes of Johnston Fernando have hurt the party even more, from which the fallout can only be negative.
The lesson from Elpitiya then is that none of the parties can be too happy. The JJB cannot afford to be complacent and rest on their laurels while their rivals will have to perform much better if they are to at least match their performance at the presidential election. To believe otherwise will be to their own detriment, as the results on November 15 will tell.
