The people have spoken. In a historic verdict, Anura Kumara Dissanayake was elected as the ninth Executive President of Sri Lanka. The results, declared on Sunday, was not without its share of drama: a count of preference votes for the first time in the country leading to a slightly delayed result and expectation in some quarters that Sajith Premadasa might bag sufficient preference votes from Ranil Wickremesinghe to tip the balance in his favour.
That was not to be. Despite Champika Ranawaka’s ‘sour grapes’ remarks that this was not an ‘absolute victory’ because Dissanayake had not secured 50 per cent of the vote, the mandate was compelling: his majority over Premadasa was a whopping 1.2 million votes, bettered only by Chandrika Kumaratunga (1994), Mahinda Rajapaksa (2010) and Gotabaya Rajapaksa (2019).
President Dissanayake took oaths in a simple, sombre yet elegant ceremony on Monday morning. The lack of an ostentatious display of power was very much in evidence. The entire ceremony lasted less than thirty minutes and the President’s first address a mere seven minutes. The first impression was indeed impressive.
In the coming days and weeks, President Dissanayake will be busy with the task of forming government and setting up his administration. He has already appointed a three-member Cabinet and, in a widely commended move chosen Harini Amarasuriya as his Prime Minister, dissolved Parliament and scheduled general elections for November 14.
The Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) will be keen to optimise its returns at the general election. It is what happens to the other major political parties that will be watched with great interest. All other major parties- the United National Party (UNP), the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) are struggling to stay afloat in a sea of political uncertainty.
The performance of Wickremesinghe on Saturday came as a surprise to many. He polled nearly 2.3 million votes, slightly more than 17 per cent share of the total. Had that been added on to Premadasa’s 32.7 per cent, they would have secured the elusive 50 per cent and beaten Dissanayake into second place. In this respect, Thalatha Atukorale’s parting, scathing words to Premadasa have come true: “If we unite, victory will be handed to us on a platter, if we are divided, we will be committing political suicide”.
There will be a fallout from this. The big question is whether Wickremesinghe will finally retire. He says he will but UNPers have a sense of déjà vu about this. They expected hm to retire after the 2020 debacle but he didn’t, saying it could cause further problems due to a battle for the party leadership. Four years later, the situation is the same- and, in a sense, more imminent because they are just before a general election, rather than just after it.
Now that he will never be an elected President, Wickremesinghe, who presided over the UNP’s fall from glory to its current dilapidated state, would want to end his career on a high, restoring a semblance of pride to the Grand Old Party. There is speculation that he could invite SJBers back to the UNP. He could even kill two birds with one stone by provoking SJBers to dump Premadasa, citing his two losses from two presidential polls which is only worse than Wickremesinghe’s own record, three from three. If there is a change of leadership in the SJB, that could pave the way for reunification with the UNP.
The success or failure of Wickremesinghe’s strategy will depend on what the majority of SJB stalwarts want to do. Already, the names of Champika Ranawaka and Harsha de Silva are being bandied about as potential successors to Premadasa. Ranawaka playing to the gallery at the post-election press briefing adds credence to this theory.
On the other side of the political divide, SLPP rebels who teamed up with Wickremesinghe find themselves in a typical ‘up the creek without a paddle’ scenario, with his defeat. Still, they should be counting their blessings because, had they stayed with the SLPP, their share of the vote would be a mere 2.5 per cent.
The SLPP ‘rebels’ will need to factor this in when they contemplate the general election. Their party will most likely be the new coalition, the ‘Podujana Eksath Nidahas Peramuna’ (PENP)with Dinesh Gunawardena as its leader and Ramesh Pathirana as its General Secretary. The big question for them is whether they will contest on their own or whether they should team up again with Wickremesinghe who will of course, return to the UNP. The same question will bother the SLFP which is also in the throes of legal battles with its membership scattered among so many parties.
Even if Wickremesinghe is the glue that binds all these political forces and he succeeds in doing so, it will be difficult for him to accommodate politicians from the UNP, SJB, SLPP, SLFP under one banner for the general election for simple practical reasons: formulating district lists and the battle for preference votes will become a nightmare that will not to be to anyone’s benefit.
At a presidential election, supporting a particular candidate is easy for a politician as their own political future is not at stake. At a general election, the scenario is different. Each politician is likely to opt for the strategy that is most likely to enhance their own chances of entry to the next Parliament rather than being preoccupied with lofty ideals.
In a sense, Namal Rajapaksa and the SLPP have a clearer course to chart: contest on their own and win. However, having secured a paltry 2.5 per cent of the vote, many of their stalwarts face political extinction now. This is also the reason why some of the leading lights who defected to the Wickremesinghe camp will choose to contest under the newly formed PENP rather than return to the SLPP where only a Rajapaksa can be leader.
It is to Dissanayake’s and the JJB’s advantage to capitalise on the collective strife that all other political parties find themselves in. The JJB’s strategists will, we are sure, spot this opening and exploit it, if only to ensure that it will be handed a Parliament where it commands at least a comfortable simple majority.
