Sri Lanka is a nation that has hurtled from crisis to crisis: two insurrections in the South, the assassination of two of its leaders and similar attempts on others, terrorism in the North which then spread to the South and lasted for three decades, a Tsunami that killed thousands instantly and various attempts by its leaders, from time to time, to usurp their powers and do as they wish. The country has been resilient through all this because of one factor- their ability to change governments periodically.
There is no reason to be surprised when the expected happens. Yet, most people were shocked and taken aback when it did: local government polls, the country’s first nationwide elections since the August 2020 general elections, scheduled for March 09 have been suspended.
On Tuesday, the Elections Commission (EC) announced that postal voting for the poll has been postponed ‘indefinitely’. The reason follows a communication from the Government Printer that it is not in a position to print the required ballot papers.
This is the latest- and most significant- step in a series of measures initiated by the government aimed at scuttling the election. They are instigated by a regime headed by Ranil Wickremesinghe, great liberal democrat when in the opposition, despot and dictator when he finally gained power by chance after Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the Presidency last year.
For months, Wickremesinghe has been singing the ‘we have no money, tighten your belts’ tune ad nauseum. He does have money though for lavish Independence Day celebrations, for the many perks and privileges of his ministers with not a hint of reduction in any of these while the hoi polloi are being burdened with increased taxes, prohibitive electricity costs and soaring inflation.
The real reason for postponing the election however is not financial hardship. It is the fear that the two ruling parties, the United National Party (UNP) led by Wickremesinghe and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) are running scared of facing the people. They know they will be sent home packing at the poll. Worse still, they are worried that such an outcome at the local government elections will have a snowballing effect at the presidential elections, due by the end of next year and general elections which are due by August 2024.
What now and what next is the question on the minds of most people. At the time of writing, the decision to defer the poll is not final. The matter has been referred to the Supreme Court.
Last week, the Supreme Court, in response to applications filed by several parliamentarians, did not issue a writ of mandamus compelling the EC to conduct the election. That was on the basis of an undertaking given by the Commission that it was making all relevant preparations to hold the poll. That situation has changed drastically since then. The EC desperately wants to conduct the election but is being thwarted at every turn by the government. Whether the Supreme Court will intervene now remains to be seen.
Then, another fundamental rights application, filed by a retired Army officer asking that the election be postponed is due for a decision on February 23. The matter was originally listed for February 10 but was postponed. This maybe the final arbiter of whether the election will be held or not.
For whatever reason, if the election is not held, it will be one of the darkest days for democracy in Sri Lanka, though not the first of its kind. In 1975, general elections were due for the then United Front government led by Sirima Bandaranaike but the world’s first woman Prime Minister decided that her term began not in 1970 when she was elected but from 1972, when she proclaimed the country a republic.
At the time, the then Leader of the Opposition, J.R. Jayewardene, uncle of Ranil Wickremesinghe, resigned his seat in the legislature in protest, triggering a by-election which he easily won. Seven years later, the same J.R. Jayewardene however deferred the general elections that was due and held a referendum instead! Now his nephew Ranil Wickremesinghe is demonstrating that he is a chip off the old block.
Wickremesinghe prides himself on being a voracious reader and a student of political history. Then he must surely know that both Bandaranaike and Jayewardene faced disastrous consequences as a result of postponing polls. Bandaranaike had to concede a landslide victory to Jayewardene in 1977 when elections were eventually held and the majority he gained enable JR to strip her of her civic rights.
Jayewardene’s actions in 1982 and the subsequent banning of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) led to the insurrection in 1989 that cost thousands of lives. Given the public mood right now, as was so clearly manifested at the ‘aragalaya’ last year, is that the kind of horror that Wickremesinghe is inviting?
If the polls are not held, the consequences for Sri Lanka as a country will be immense. This would mean that any future government could use any flimsy reason to postpone any election that is due. What then is the guarantee that the presidential elections due in November 2024 or the general elections due by August 2025 will be held on time? The precedent that any postponement of local government elections will generate is too dangerous to even contemplate.
Sri Lanka is a nation that has hurtled from crisis to crisis: two insurrections in the South, the assassination of two of its leaders and similar attempts on others, terrorism in the North which then spread to the South and lasted for three decades, a Tsunami that killed thousands instantly and various attempts by its leaders, from time to time, to usurp their powers and do as they wish. The country has been resilient through all this because of one factor- their ability to change governments periodically.
The choices the people have made, replacing one government with another, may not have been ideal as is most recently the case- replacing Mahinda Rajapaksa with Maithripala Sirisena and then, Sirisena with Gotabaya Rajapaksa- but at least, they had that choice and exercised that right. The people of Sri Lanka have always relied on that right to stay calm, knowing that their rulers are at their mercy at the next election.
To take that away from them now would have unthinkable repercussions. We saw what happened last year when people were on the brink. The departure of Gotabaya Rajapaksa without a bullet being fired doused that angst to some extent but now, with elections being deferred, the dissent and disgust is growing.
It is difficult to imagine that the government will go without a bullet being fired in their defence. That is why the decision to defer, postpone or cancel the local government will be disastrous and deadly.
