Now the government has changed tactics. Its attack dogs, Rohitha Abeygunawardena and Johnston Fernando, silent for some time, are barking again. The strategy is to go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), work out an initial short term relief package for the masses and hope it appeases them.
If the immediate issues that affect the people most- the fuel and gas shortages, the power cuts- can be addressed, the government hopes that the so-called ‘middle-class’ which is now feeling the pinch will abandon their fight and, with no election due for almost three years, ‘something’ can be worked out. That remains to be seen. Now, the protest campaign has moved a notch higher. It is no longer about the economy alone. It is about punishing crooks, good governance and changing the ‘system’ so that no one can plunder the nation again
Political developments have been occurring at breakneck speed this week with some ‘breaking news’ emerging virtually every minute this week but these events must be tempered with much reflection and lessons must be learnt if Sri Lanka is to survive as a nation at this critical juncture of its history.
What began as a somewhat rowdy protest near President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s private residence in Nugegoda last Thursday has now grown into a massive movement for political justice, demanding not only Rajapaksa’s ouster but also compensation for the loot they allegedly pocketed from the country.
How and why did it happen and why did it happen now? This is not the first government that was corrupt or dictatorial but Sri Lankans tolerated them, opting to chase them away at the ballot box instead. Why then was the Gotabaya Rajapaksa regime at the receiving end just two years into office?
A simple answer is, as they say, ‘it’s the economy, stupid’. This is the worst economic crisis in post-independence history. Even the hardships endured during the 1970-1977 rule of Sirima Bandaranaike pale into insignificance. Also, the world is a much open planet now, compared to fifty years ago.
Compounding this was the government’s response. Prices sky-rocketed, gas and fuel were virtually impossible to find and the powers cuts lengthened to an unbearable extent by the day but ministers mouthed denials day after day as if those who are complaining were only hell bent on regime change.
That conveys a lack of empathy for the suffering masses. Gamini Lokuge says with a straight face that fuel is freely available. Namal Rajapaksa engages in water sports in the Maldives. Mahinda Rajapaksa flies in a private jet to Tirupathi. Brother Gotabaya tells the nation he is not responsible for this crisis.
This catastrophe did not happen overnight. At the end of last year, several reputed economists took the unusual step of going on social media to predict that a crisis of gigantic proportions was in the making and that urgent remedial action was required to avert a disaster. Those pleas fell of deaf years.
The budget only displayed the ignorance of Basil Rajapaksa who has difficulty stringing two words together, leave alone balancing the nation’s books. Add to that Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal’s blithe statement that printing money, if done ‘carefully’, does not lead to inflation!
There was a perfect storm in the making. When it hit, the government responded stupidly. Hirunika Premachandraprotested at the President’s residence, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) demonstrated at the Presidential Secretariat but nothing happened.
It was when ordinary citizens- without any political backing- started protesting at the President’s residence at Nugegoda that things turned ugly. What could have been nipped in the bud was felled with an axe. Allegations of human rights violations were added to a growing list of complaints.
What followed thereafter was a comedy of errors. The protesters, average citizens, were described as ‘organisedextremists’. A curfew, which was not imposed at the height of the pandemic, was imposed overnight. Social media was blocked for fifteen hours, drawing the ire of even Namal Rajapaksa.
Next day, as the protests spread like wildfire throughout the country and people gathered in major cities demanding the ouster of the Rajapaksas, the government went in to panic mode. In a significant indication that it is losing its political will, the Cabinet of ministers sent in their resignations.
More comedy was to follow. Four ministers were reappointed, three of them- Dinesh Gunawardena, G.L. Peiris and Johnston Fernando- to their previous portfolios. Basil Rajapaksa was stripped of his Finance Ministry which was given to Ali Sabry, who too resigned less than 24 hours later.
When Parliament met on Tuesday, more drama was to ensue. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), The eleven-party grouping led by Udaya Gammanpila and Wimal Weerawansa and a faction from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) said they would functions as ‘independents’ in Parliament.
So far, neither President Rajapaksa nor Prime Minister Rajapaksa has made any concession. They have re-iterated that neither will resign, the government will go on with a reduced, now wafer-thin simple majority. The protests meanwhile are gathering rapid momentum by the day.
Where to, from here? There was talk of a ‘national’ or ‘interim’ government at first and President Rajapaksa did invite all political parties in Parliament to join the Cabinet. It was a bait intended to lure the opposition, so that when the ship of state sinks, the opposition would share a part of the blame.
The collective opposition including the SJB, the JVP, the SLFP and the eleven-party group did not fall for that and stuck to their line of having nothing to with a discredited government. Even a second fervent appeal to the SLFP at a meeting Rajapaksa specially convened fell on deaf years.
Now the government has changed tactics. Its attack dogs, Rohitha Abeygunawardena and Johnston Fernando, silent for some time, are barking again. The strategy is to go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), work out an initial short term relief package for the masses and hope it appeases them.
If the immediate issues that affect the people most- the fuel and gas shortages, the power cuts- can be addressed, the government hopes that the so-called ‘middle-class’ which is now feeling the pinch will abandon their fight and, with no election due for almost three years, ‘something’ can be worked out. That remains to be seen. Now, the protest campaign has moved a notch higher. It is no longer about the economy alone. It is about punishing crooks, good governance and changing the ‘system’ so that no one can plunder the nation again. Then, there is the small matter of getting rid of the Rajapaksas.
The Constitution is stacked in favour of the government. Presidential elections cannot be called until the end of 2023. No one can compel the President to resign. The best the opposition can do is to wrest control of Parliament and make Rajapaksa a lame duck President. It is five seats away from doing so.
Whatever happens next, it is important that the opposition deals with the crisis within the framework of the Constitution. The eventual outcome though will depend on the resilience of the peoples’ protests and how long they can be sustained, which the government believes, won’t be for long.
