Less than two months after the departure of Gotabaya Rajapaksa from office there appears to be a political resurgence of sorts with the formation of several new parties and attempts to rejuvenate more established political parties. Is this all part of yet another political drama or are major changes in the offing in Sri Lanka’s political landscape?
The trend began when, at the beginning of the debate on the ‘interim’ budget delivered by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, former Foreign Minister G.L. Peiris, who was also the Chairman of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) announced that he was crossing over to the opposition with twelve others.
This group also included Dullas Alahapperuma who contested Wickremesinghe for the Presidency in the ballot conducted in Parliament. Its other members are mostly professionals and includes several stalwarts of the ‘Viyath Maga’, an organisation that was instrumental in propelling Gotabaya Rajapaksa towards the presidential candidacy in the early stages of his campaign.
A few days later, Peiris, Alahapperuma and the others announced the formation of the ‘Nidahasa Janatha Sabhawa’ (NJS). This group attempts to portray themselves as a group that broke away from the SLPP because of issues of corruption, lack of good governance and nepotism.
Close on the heels of this alliance was the birth of yet another alliance of sorts, the Nawa Lanka Nidahas Pakshaya or New Lanka Freedom Party (NLFP). The prime mover of this is Kalutara district parliamentarian Kumara Welgama, formerly a staunch Mahinda Rajapaksa loyalist who then opposed Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s candidacy and went on to contest the last general elections from the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB).
The launch of the NLFP was conducted at its new party headquarters at Battaramulla and was graced by former President Chandrika Kumaratunga. Never one to mince her words, Kumaratunga chose some choice words to describe former Presidents from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena, calling them ‘mad’.
Interestingly, also attending the event were Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) parliamentarians Anura Priyadarshana Yapa and Chandima Weerakkody as well Champika Ranawaka who contested from the SJB but has become ‘independent’ lately and formed his own ‘43rd Group’.
There is speculation that this newly created NLFP is an attempt by Kumaratunga to introduce her son Vimukthi Kumaratunga to Sri Lankan politics. The younger Kumaratunga, a veterinarian by profession and domiciled in Britain for decades now is however yet to acquiesce to this.
Days later we saw the creation of the ‘Uththara Lanka Sabhagaya’, or the ‘Supreme Lanka Coalition’ (SLC) as it calls itself. This is the group of political parties led by Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gammanpila and Vasudeva Nanayakkara which parted ways with the SLPP-led government, now formally banding together as a separate political entity.
Weerawansa will lead the SLC, Gammanpila and Tissa Vitara will be his deputies and Vasudeva Nanayakkara will be its National Organiser. The unknown factor in this alliance is, despite the vocal pyrotechnics displayed by Weerawansa and others, how many votes it can attract on its own, without the support of a major party such as the SLPP
In addition to these new political outfits, we also saw the SLFP and the United National Party (UNP) stage their annual conventions on a grander scale this year, after a lapse of several years. The UNP in particular had reason to celebrate because it was the first time in 28 years that its leader was also the leader of the country.
Maithripala Sirisena made use of the SLFP convention, despite protests from senior SLFPer Nimal Siripala de Silva, to consolidate his position at the helm of the party. Among the resolutions endorsed by the SLFP’s Central Committee was a decision to empower the Committee and the party leader to take disciplinary action against those who violate party decisions. This is in the context of de Silva and Mahinda Amaraweera defying the party to take up cabinet portfolios in Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government.
Among the invitees at the UNP’s convention were SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam and Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena. Also attending were the two renegade ministers from the SJB, Harin Fernando and Manusha Nanayakkara who have given clear signals that they have cast their lot with the UNP rather than the SJB.
There were mixed signals emanating from the UNP convention. Deputy Leader of the party, Ruwan Wijewardene made a conciliatory speech virtually inviting the SJB to return to their ‘ancestral home’ in the UNP, a theme he has re-iterated publicly on several occasions. Harin Fernando however threw caution to the winds and launched a personal attack on SJB leader Sajith Premadasa.
What then do these developments indicate? It certainly does not signify a great political awakening. On the contrary it is a sign of the political vacuum that exists in the country right now. Some parliamentarians of the ruling SLPP are slowly but surely realising that the party’s support base is slipping by the day and that, should they remain with the party, their chances of re-election are virtually zero, especially after all the Rajapaksas get preferential treatment. So, they are abandoning what they believe is a fast sinking ship.
Several groups are scrambling to project themselves as viable alternatives to the SLPP and appeal to that segment of the population that would have voted for the SLPP but are now disgusted with the party. Hence this rush to form new alliances in the shape of the NLFP, SLC and the NJS. This is what the SLFP is also trying to do. Essentially, they are all competing for this segment of the vote.
What the UNP will do is slightly more uncertain at this time. They could, potentially team up with the SJB but it is more a question of whether the SJB will be willing to do so, given that President Wickremesinghe has irrevocably tarnished his democratic credentials by teaming up with the Rajapaksas and the SLPP. In such a scenario, it is quite possible that the next national polls will be a three-way contest between the SLPP, UNP and the SJB. If that is indeed the case, the latter are likely to emerge winners.
What then will become of all the splinter parties that were formed last week. The country’s electoral system is such that it doesn’t allow much room for smaller parties to flourish. Throw the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which commands some popular support, to the mix and it is almost certain that these new parties will either have to latch on to a major party or perish. That is the moral of the story for all political parties that made their debut last week.
