Something of much political significance happened in the parliament last week, but it escaped the attention of political analysts and the media, which only cursorily reported it. SJB MP and former Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka tabled in the parliament the policy statement of the 43 Brigade, an outfit which is promoting him as a presidential candidate for all practical purposes.
The 43 Brigade, which is so named because it seeks to mobilize the beneficiaries of free education, introduced in the early 1940s, launched its policy statement recently at its national convention. It is hoping that it could do something similar to what Emmanuel Macron did in France in 2017. A political greenhorn, Macron won the Presidency and went on to form a government. He is only 44 years old; Ranawaka is 56.
On Wednesday (23) in Parliament, Ranawaka stood to his full height, immaculately dressed in white, and prefaced the presentation of what may be considered his presidential election manifesto to the House. An electrical engineer by profession, and former Minister of Power and Energy, he got on his hobby horse—the chronic crisis in the power sector and the solution according to him. He clinically analyzed the situation by making the best use of his mathematical and oratorical skills. Everybody listened.
Even Ranawaka’s erstwhile companion Energy Minister Udaya Gammanpila granted in his speech that Ranawaka had talked sense. The minister urged others to emulate him (Ranawaka) and suggest solutions to problems the country was beset with, instead of talking nineteen to the dozen.
Even if more thermal power stations had been built, there would have been no fuel for them, given the foreign exchange crisis, the former Minister of Power and Energy Champika said, in his speech, claiming that the country already had enough power plants; he said there was a demand for about 2,700MW of electricity a day and the country’s overall generation capacity was around 4, 887MW. The electrical engineer drove home his point that the prevailing foreign exchange was the main reason for the power cuts as the government could not buy fuel.
The salient points in Ranawaka’s speech (in Sinhala) as regards the power crisis are as follows:
· Hydro power stations could generate about 1,383MW; the thermal power plants owned by the Ceylon Electricity Board contributed 1,554MW to the national grid, and Independent Power Producers 614MW. Together, they could generate 2,168MW, and when electricity from solar power systems and other sources such as rooftop solar panels and wind farms was taken into account, the country could generate about 4,887MW a day while the daily demand was about 2,700MW.
· Some power stations such as the Kelanitissa complex, the West Coast plant, and the ones at Matugama, Thulhiriya and Kolonnawa had ceased operations for want of fuel, reducing the electricity supply to 1,033MW, and thus there was a shortfall of 1,145MW, causing daily power cuts.
· The power crisis had nothing to do with the fact that no power stations had been built during the past few years, and it was due to lack of foreign exchange to pay for fuel.
· The CEB was dependent on hydropower to stabilize the national power supply, and therefore water in reservoirs had to be managed properly. The reservoirs had been 88 percent full at the beginning of the year, but it had dropped to 41 percent by now because the CEB had stepped up hydro power generation in a bid to meet the shortfall in the thermal power supply.
· At the current rate, there would be no water left for the next cultivation season (Yala) or even for drinking. If the hydro power generation continued to decrease, the power crisis would persist even if the thermal power plants resumed operations at the optimal capacity. Unless the government got its act together, power cuts would have to be extended up to 18-24 hours a day before long.
(Ranawaka however did not say that Sri Lankan had coal stocks sufficient for about three months, and if the Sampur coal-fired power plant, which was to be funded by India, had been built, it would have supplied 300MW to the national grid, and helped ease the country’s overdependence on the diesel power generation. It was Maithripala Sirisena who aborted the Sampur project, citing environmental reasons when he was the President, and Ranawaka served as the Minister of Power and Energy in his Cabinet.
When Ranawaka argued in the parliament that the power crisis had nothing to do with the country’s failure to build more power stations, it was obvious that he was trying to absolve himself of the blame for not taking action to construct new power stations and the cancellation of the Sampur coal power project while he was serving as the Minister of Power and Energy. Curiously, no government MP present in the House questioned Ranawaka on this score.)
Parlous economic situation
Ranawaka also painted a bleak picture of the economic situation. The Central Bank’s foreign reserves had plummeted drastically, and there was a rupee crisis as well, he said, stressing that the Central Bank was short of Rs 617 bn, and the day might not be far off when it would have to tell the government that there were no rupees. The economy would crash in such an eventuality, he warned.
Ranawaka questioned the wisdom of spending colossal amounts of funds on the construction of highways at a time when the people’s basic needs could not be met due to the foreign exchange and dollar crises. Essential commodities such as food items, fuel, gas and medicine were in short supply due to the dollar scarcity, and the government was spending heavily on highway construction, he said, pointing out that 35% of the bills involving such projects had to be paid in dollars. He thus cast the government’s development drive in an unfavorable light. Infrastructure development and the Covid vaccination programme are about the only things that the ruling SLPP could flaunt, and Ranawaka has effectively targeted the ongoing infrastructure development project and is trying to turn public opinion against them.
Solution according to Ranawaka
In offering to a messianic role as a leader capable of saving the country and developing it, Ranawaka has had to compete with not only President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who has expressed his intention to seek re-election but also Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, who is planning to run for president as the SJB candidate.
Ranawaka has already overshadowed Premadasa, who is therefore not well disposed towards the former. And this is said to be the reason why Premadasa skipped the 43 Brigade convention. Ranawaka’s performance in the parliament last week has gone down well with social media, which is full of praise for him, and calls him an intelligent leader.
What is Ranawaka’s magic formula? It is his policy statement, ambitiously titled, ‘Let’s hold on to hope: Rescue & Thrive, which he tabled in the House on Wednesday. The 66-page document has two parts—Rescue and Thrive. It has 10 sections, five each in the two parts, and they are as follows: The debt trap; Signs that the debt trap is ready to spring; the arrival of a new government; Does the government have a plan to respond to this crisis even in the future?; Let us climb out of the abyss, and (in part II) Introduction; The balance sheet of 73 years; A foundation for a discussion on creating a country worth living in; A few questions and A doorway for an agreement towards a country worth living in.
Ranawaka’s policy statement is a good read, and the arguments in it are backed with facts and figures, and therefore look tenable. One can see an engineering brain at work. But how pragmatic is the proposed rescue mission? This is the question one asks oneself on reading the document, although Ranawaka has tried to make it out to be different from other manifestos. The document says at the outset: This is not yet another run-of-the-mill policy statement. Both the traditional political parties as well as their policy documents have been rejected by the public. What we are presenting to you is the initial set of ideas which will lead to a social discourse that brings about a progressive shift in both politics as well as policy formulation.
President Rajapaksa’s policy statement, Vistas of Property and Splendour, also made interesting reading, and some people even voted for him because of the promises in it. But it has become yet another election manifesto. Ranawaka’s policy statement is more technical and attractive, but 43 Brigade will find it difficult to market it as a panacea. The proof of the pudding is said to be in the eating.
