Sajith secures ITAK’s support; Ranil and Anura continue to woo Tamil voters
By Vishvanath
The much-awaited presidential election is only about 11days away, and the election campaigns of political parties in the fray are heading for the mandatory cooling-off period which commences next week. Various opinion surveys have predicted different outcomes, and the Election Commission (EC) has urged the public to ignore them. It is thought that the contest for the presidency is among three candidates, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa and NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake—not necessarily in that order. SLPP candidate Namal Rajapaksa is also expected to poll a significant number of votes thanks to his father Mahinda Rajapaksa’s personal involvement in his election campaign. Votes, except those in the North and the East, are divided among these four candidates albeit disproportionately. This has given rise to speculation that unlike in the previous presidential elections since 1082, the winning candidate will not be able to poll more than 50% of valid votes to secure the presidency in the first round itself, and preferences will have to be counted to choose the President. Hence the candidates are vying hard for the votes in the North and the East.
The TNA has a huge block vote in the North and the East. So does the SLMC, which has a strong presence in some parts of the North and throughout the East as well as in other parts of the country. Both parties have pledged their support for Premadasa, but others have not given up their efforts to garner votes in the North and the East.
President Wickremesinghe toured the North on Saturday (Sept. 07) and met former leader of ITAK Mavai Senathiraja at the latter’s residence in Kankesanthurai, Jaffna. Senathiraja reportedly wished Wickremesinghe well, and this meeting has been described in some quarters as being indicative of a section of the ITAK backing Wickremesinghe. The decision to support Premadasa was taken by the ITAK Central Committee, as declared by ITAK MP M. A. Sumanthiran. Immediately after the ITAK’s official announced its decision to endorse Sajith’s candidature, Senathiraja struck a discordant note, but subsequently he said he would go along the party’s position. Thereafter, he invited Wickremesinghe to his residence and wished him well.
Dissanayake visited Jaffna last Thursday (Sept. 05), and addressed a gathering in a bid to win over as many votes as possible, but whether his efforts yielded the desired results is doubtful, given the firm hold the TNA or its main constituent, the ITAK, has on the Tamil constituency. In a bid to persuade the Tamil voters to back him, he said he had secured enough votes in the southern parts of the country and the northerners should not be seen to be opposed to what he called change the country was seeking. President Wickremesinghe took him on for having made such a statement, which he interpreted as a veiled threat. He said Dissanayake had to apologize to the Tamil voters for having done so. ITAK MP Sumanthiran chose to sound conciliatory, defending as he did Dissanayake, who, he said, had said nothing wrong. Dissanayake has taken a swipe at Wickremesinghe, and the NPP has interpreted Sumanthiran’s intervention on behalf of Dissanayake as a sign of support for the NPP. Sumanthiran, who is speaking for the ITAK, is said to be trying to prevent Wickremesinghe from winning brownie points with the Tamil voters by being critical of Dissanayake’s statement. Subsequently, Sumanthiran issued a statement that the ITAK’s decision to back Premadasa remained unchanged.
The ongoing battle for votes in the North and the East is bound to intensify within the next few days, given their crucial importance. Until the defeat of the LTTE, which controlled most of the northern and eastern provinces, those votes had been considered a game changer. The last pre-war election where the people of the North and the East were free to vote was the 1982 presidential contest. Thereafter, they had to wait until 2010 to do so.
The Tamil votes in the North and some parts of the East did not have much of an impact on the presidential elections during war years, as the voter turnout was extremely low. In 2005, the LTTE declared a poll boycott, which prevented most Tamils from voting at that year’s presidential election. It is widely thought that if they had been able to vote, the then UNP candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe would have won the presidency, given the razor thin majority UPFA candidate Mahinda Rajapaksa obtained.
Rajapaksa polled 4,887,152 votes (50.29%) as opposed to 4,706,366 votes (48.43%) obtained by UNP candidate Wickremesinghe. It is reasonable to believe that if the Tamils had been allowed to vote freely in the North and the East, Wickremesinghe would have been able to perform better.
The UNP accused the Rajapaksas of having bribed the LTTE into staging the poll boycott, a charge they have vehemently denied. In 2010, Rajapaksa won comfortably, defeating former Army Commander Gen. Sarath Fonseka, who secured the vast majority of votes in the North and the East.
In 2015, the votes in the North and the East became a game changer in a presidential contest for the first time. They enabled common presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena to beat the then incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who polled more than he did in other parts of the country. The final result came as a rude shock for Rajapaksa. However, Mahinda could have retained the presidency if his approval ratings had not declined steeply in the southern parts owing to rampant corruption, waste, cronyism and political violence which his rule came to be notorious for.
But in 2019, the Rajapaksas made a comeback without any backing from the minorities be it in the North and the East or elsewhere. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who became the President by polling 6,924,255 votes (52.25%) while his main contender Sajith Premadasa could obtain only 5,564,239 votes (41.99%) in spite of the overwhelming support he received from the Tamil and Muslim voters in the North and the East as well as elsewhere.
All presidential elections since 1982 have had only two main candidates each, representing either the SLFP or the UNP or coalitions led by them, and therefore the winner could always secure more than 50% of the valid votes. But this time around there is a difference as pointed out above, and the stiff competition among more than two presidential candidates for the votes in the southern parts has made those in the North and the East assume unprecedented importance. Curiously, the TNA/ITAK, did not leverage this fact when it held discussions with their southern parties in the presidential fray although it is known for its hard bargaining and brinkmanship.
