There appeared to be more police riot squad personnel than protesters in Colombo on Wednesday (02)! What one beheld was a sea of white police helmets. Uniformed policemen wearing gas masks formed a wall of sorts across the road, blocking the path of a large number of activists of political parties, trade unions and students, marching against the detention of some university student leaders who had taken part in anti-government protests previously. How many plainclothesmen may have been there is anybody’s guess. The government had left nothing to chance.
The police behaved—for once; they did not resort to brutal force to disperse the protesters, maybe owing to the presence of some Human Rights Commission officials at the scene. Or, the need for using water cannon and batons liberally did not arise as the police managed to push back the marchers without much resistance. Not all protesters made a determined bid to break through the wall of policemen.
The government sent a clear message to its political opponents who are all out to relaunch Aragalaya; it will do everything in its power to prevent another wave of protests.
Both sides are claiming victory. The SJB, the SLFP, and the FSP (Frontline Socialist Party), and trade unions say they thwarted the government’s attempts to abort their march while the UNP and the SLPP insist that the protest was a flop.
The police sought to prevent the protest march from being launched. They wrote to the organizers of it, warning that they would be compelled to act according to the Police Ordinance to maintain law and order. But their letter did not have the desired impact. Therefore, the political parties and the trade unions involved in the march have claimed victory although they could not break through the police barricades unlike on previous occasions.
The government has declared victory because the police succeeded in stopping the march. But the fact remains that the police had bussed a large number of personnel from other areas to Colombo for that purpose; they would have been helpless if protests had broken out across the country simultaneously.
Disunity exposed
What Wednesday’s protest march has signified is the disunity among the Opposition parties and trade unions, besides the government’s determination to bulldoze its way through.
The protesters were divided on how to react to resistance the police put up; the radical elements, especially the FSP activists including university students, among them wanted to forge ahead, but the other Opposition activists were wary of such action, and this may have been one of the reasons why a section of the protesters booed Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa and SLFP General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera.
The UNP and the SLPP are using the booing incident to have the public believe that Premadasa is becoming unpopular, and the Opposition is too divided to take on the government.
The JVP refused to join Wednesday’s protest march, claiming that it did not want to close ranks with the politicians who had contributed to the ruination of the country and were opportunists. Its approval ratings have improved somewhat, according to some opinion surveys, and therefore it apparently wants to conduct protests separately without sharing the credit for them with anyone else. It has also not responded favorably to efforts being made in some quarters to bring about a rapprochement between it and its offshoot, the FSP.
The FSP student union dominates universities. Its members played a key role in anti-government protests that made Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa step down and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa flee the country and resign. It was obvious from the very beginning that the FSP would take control of Wednesday’s march, and try to overshadow others. That may also have made the JVP stay away.
The SJB has accused the JVP of having struck a deal with President Ranil Wickremesinghe the way it did during the Yahapalana government. The JVP has vehemently denied the allegation.
The SLPP dissidents also did not take part in Wednesday’s protest although they cooperate with the SJB in the parliament. Maybe they did not want to be seen with the FSP and some trade unionists involved in the protest.
What booing signifies
JVP trade union leader Wasantha Samarasinghe said prior to Wednesday’s march that his party would not take part in it because the SJB and the SLFP had got together to gain political traction and were trying to use the JVP for that purpose. He however stopped short of taking a swipe at the FSP, which, he knew, would lead the march from the front. The FSP also refrained from firing broadsides at the JVP; it only resorted to innuendos in answer to questions journalists raised about the JVP’s refusal to join the protest.
Boos that greeted Opposition Leader Premadasa on Wednesday made the situation look like a replay of what he faced when he rushed to the Galle Face Green in the aftermath of a goon attack on Aragalaya activists on May 09; he was roughed up by some aggressive protesters and had to be whisked away by his security personnel. The Galle Face incident went uninvestigated. It was too embarrassing for the SJB to pursue the matter. JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who arrived at the scene a little while later was greeted with cheers. It was clear that the JVP cadres were present in large numbers at the protest site, and were waiting for Dissanayake’s arrival.
The FSP was calling the shots in the Galle Face protest but did not go to the extent of confronting the JVP or humiliating Dissanayake. By that time, efforts had got underway to reconcile the two parties, and that may also have prevented the FSP from resorting to hostile action against Dissanayake.
The JVP and the FSP had a much-publicized powwow at the former’s headquarters subsequently, but it ended inconclusively. There has been no follow-up meeting. The two parties have since been at loggerheads, again. As it stands, they are not likely to join forces in the foreseeable future, but anything is possible in politics. About a year ago, whoever would have thought the SLPP and the UNP would come together to share power?
Rifts widen
UNP seniors are all out to capitalize on the rifts among the Opposition parties. They are blowing the situation out of proportion. UNP General Secretary Range Bandara feigned sympathy for Premadasa at a media briefing on Thursday. He said the Opposition Leader should not have been humiliated during Wednesday’s protest march. It was obvious that he was deriving some perverse pleasure from the abasement of Premadasa’s pride.
The ruling coalition is however not free from trouble. The SLPP has suffered three splits so far. The UNP is boasting that some SLPP MPs have offered to join it, and their defection is only a matter of time. It however does not show signs of recovery despite having secured the presidency.
Challenges before govt. and Opposition
The Opposition may have failed to trigger another wave of protests, but it will be a mistake for the government to be lulled into complacency. People have not taken to the streets during the past several months despite hardships because some problems such as fuel and cooking gas shortages have been sorted out to a considerable extent. But their resentment is far from over; the government has not mended its ways and is postponing elections. Unless IMF assistance materializes soon, the economic situation is bound to take a turn for the worse, driving the public to protest. The Indian media have reported that the IMF loan is likely to be delayed until March 2023 due to some issues related to debt restructuring. This is bad news.
If the government fails to straighten up the economy within the next few months and hold elections, street protest will erupt with or without the involvement of the Opposition. This is a tall order for the Rajapaksa-Wickremesinghe administration.
The Opposition has to realize that it has not been able to win back public confidence, and cannot depend on people’s economic woes alone to turn the tables on the government. It has to present an alternative programme, and make a noteworthy contribution towards resolving the economic crisis instead of concentrating entirely on political issues.
