The Opposition is all out to open another front for the government, which is struggling to tackle the economic crisis and recover lost ground. It is demanding that the much-delayed local government (LG) polls be held soon. Nothing is scarier for a beleaguered government than a midterm election, which is a worrisome proposition for even a newly-elected administration with high approval ratings.
The SJB visited the Election Commission (EC) on Tuesday (20). Its delegation was led by its General Secretary Ranjith Maddumabandara. It is of the view that the EC is now in a position to hold the LG elections under its own steam. The SJB however could not meet the EC members, who were in Jaffna. They are expected to meet the Opposition representatives soon.
The SJB’s initiative is likely to receive the backing of other Opposition parties. The JVP has been demanding a general election. It insists that the public must be given an opportunity to elect a new government as the present administration has lost itslegitimacy, and the current parliament does not reflect the will of the people. It is not possible to hold a snap general election unless the parliament passes a resolution to that effect. President Ranil Wickremesinghe cannot dissolve the parliament until March 2023, according to the 20th Amendment currently in force. The SLPP is trying to change the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution Bill already submitted to the parliament to prevent the President from dissolving the parliament until it has completed four and a half years of its term. It fears that he may leverage his power to dissolve the parliament to control its parliamentary group.
The JVP is likely to opt for a campaign to pressure the government to hold the LG polls, for want of a better alternative.
The Opposition has had to change its strategy because Aragalaya or the Galle Face protest movement collapsed. It may have thought that extra-parliamentary measure would help create conditions for a snap general election, but its hopes were dashed due to a turn of events that neither it nor the Aragalaya activists bargained for. They made some political miscalculations. They underestimated the government, which seemed teetering on the brink of collapse.
It is not prudent to take one’s opponent’s strength for granted—nowhere more so than in political battles. At the height of Aragalaya, it was popularly thought that the end had come for the SLPP government. The President fled the country, and protesters occupied the President’s House, Temple Trees, the Presidential Secretariat and the Prime Minister’s Office. Some of them even tried to march on the parliament. No SLPP MP or supporter dared come out. But the SLPP made some countermoves, which yielded the desired results. The government made a comeback, retaining as it did its parliamentary majority to have a person of its choice appointed President. Wickremesinghe was lucky.
Weak as a government may be, it can hold on to power if it can muster a working majority in the parliament regardless of the methods employed. The SLPP’s approval ratings are believed to have plummeted, but it is still capable of manipulating numbers in the parliament, and securing the passage of laws that do not require a special majority. Its strength outside the parliament has not been tested yet because it has not faced an election.
Replay of 2018?
What is playing out on the political front bears similarities to the events witnessed in early 2018. The Yahapalana government also survived attempts to dislodge it because it managed to retain a simple majority in the House with the help of a section of the Opposition. It even foiled an attempt by President Maithripala Sirisena to sack it.
The beginning of the end of the Yahapalana government happened with the LG polls in April 2018. The UNP and the UPFA had succeeded in holding out against the SLPP despite their political differences and internal disputes. They postponed the Provincial Council elections by amending the Provincial Council Elections Act, but could not keep putting off the LG polls, which proved to be its undoing.
The SLPP scored a mammoth victory at the April 2018 LG polls thanks to the unpopularity of the Yahapalana government, which however survived the polls defeat. The SLFP broke ranks with the UNP after that electoral debacle, and joined forces with the SLPP. The UNP continued to be in power. The SLPP became so cocky that it threw in its lot with President Sirisena, who went so far as to sack Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe over a personality clash more than anything else. It suffered a crushing setback when the UNP turned the tables on Sirisena and the Joint Opposition, which was the SLPP’s parliamentary arm at the time. It however succeeded in building on its electoral victory, and its winning streak would have continued even if the Easter Sunday terror attacks had not happened in April 2019. The tragedy however stood it in good stead electorally as national security was catapulted to the centre stage, once again.
Likewise, the current administration has avoided an electoral contest, which is its Achilles’ heel, by postponing the PC polls, but it finds itself in a situation where it cannot go on putting off the LG elections indefinitely.
What the EC’s response to the SJB’s call for exercising its powers to hold the LG polls is not known. But the Opposition is bound to make the most of the situation and gain a tremendous boost for its anti-government campaign. It is being claimed in some quarters that the time is not conducive to an election given the prevailing economic crisis, but President Wickremesinghe has said the government will be compelled to present an electoral reforms package to the people at a referendum unless the Opposition helps ratify it. The question that the Opposition is asking is why the government, which is ready to hold a referendum, cannot conduct the much-delayed LG polls.
SJB’s chances
The SLPP has sought to downplay the drop in its popularity and its inability to face an election. Its General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam has said the SLPP is strong enough to win any election, but he is only putting a bold face on it. The SLPP’s loss will be the Opposition’s gain, but will it translate into a huge boost for the SJB’s electoral fortunes? The odds are that the SJB will fare much better at a future election than it did at the last parliamentary polls, but it will have competition from the JVP and the SLPP dissidents who have decided to go it alone at elections. The JVP has been playing its cards well, and is expected to fare extremely well at the next election.
It is too early to say which Opposition party will be the best performer at the next election, but one thing is certain; the SLPP will face an electoral setback.
