Peoples struggle continues amidst political stalemate
By Lankathilaka
- Does the President still have a mandate to govern?
- Political stability crucial for economic recovery
- Crisis hit health sector turns to public for help
For more than nine days now, thousands of protestors have been demanding that President Gotabaya Rajapakse quits his job. A tenacious President is digging in his heels and refusing to budge, precipitating a political crisis to compound the country’s economic crunch. The ramifications of a clash of wills between an unrelenting Executive and an equally determined populace has already started to tell with governance stalling as the government throws its weight behind attempts to quell the protests while trying to remain in the driving seat.
The Chief Government Whip Johnston Fernando told parliament this week that the President will not resign because he has the mandate of 6. 9 million people to govern. The validity of this mandate is questionable in the face of the ongoing outcry by people for change. Among them are those who gave the President the mandate to govern. One minute sign of this was the poor turnout at pro-government rallies in Colombo and Kandy.
The President has been instrumental for the economic quagmire the country is bogged down in. It is having a domino effect on the supply of essential goods and medicines, fuel and electricity. The tax changes that were introduced by the President in 2019 by abolishing the PAYE scheme, raising the VAT threshold and the subsequent artificial pegging of the rupee to the dollar, cost the Treasury billions of rupees and dollars. The shortsighted policy to switch to the use of organic fertiliser overnight which deprived the country of foreign exchange, was among the few nails in the coffin. Advance warnings by economists that the country was enroute to economic ruin went unheeded in the rush to bring in friends and family and get rid of perceived foes. What started off as a demand by the people for basics for life in the 21st century has now spilled over as a shrill cry for justice for ill- gotten riches of the country’s leaders. The people want not only the President to leave but his family too. In addition to the President, there are five members of his immediate family holding key positions in government.
Despite living through the gravest crisis in governance in the country’s political history, the government continues to enact its political dramas at the expense of the people. This week, the President misunderstood calls for his resignation and the cabinet of ministers resigned instead. Had the Prime Minister also resigned the government would have fallen and the President would have had to appoint a prime minister who would have then had to pick the cabinet. This route was perhaps circumvented to avoid the collapse of the Rajapakse house and to maintain the pursuit of the Prime Minister’s political project to install his son Namal Rajapakse among the higher echelons of governance. If so, it might be time for the Prime Minister to listen to the chants of the people and read the placards they carry to kiss goodbye to his dream. Another reason for the Prime Minister not to resign could have been because ministers who know their shelf life has expired prevailed on him not to.
Three days of parliamentary debate also brought little relief for the people despite their expectations. MPs spent most of the time trading blame and spoke about the need for their personal security than that of their constituents. The government bought time until the 19th of April to reconvene parliament by which time it hopes the protests would have cooled off.
The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), the main opposition, is taking a gamble to collect signatures to bring a no- confidence motion against the government whose majority in parliament plummeted to 113 but rose again to 118. A no-confidence motion needs a simple majority of 113 votes. Except for the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna which has confirmed its support and the likely back-up from the Tamil National Alliance, the ability of the SJB to confidently swing a no confidence motion their way hangs in the balance. The 41 MPs who left the government and are sitting as independents in parliament are already scheduled to meet with the President late Sunday to talk about an alternative form of government. Among them will be Maithripala Sirisena who will be representing the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, Wimal Weerawansa and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa.
An impeachment of the President will be a lengthy process which is also procedurally arduous because of the hurdles it has to jump. The impeachment motion with allegations about the President’s unsuitability for the job will have to convince the Speaker and if this is overcome, the Supreme Court will have to inquire into the allegations. An impeachment will require the votes of two thirds of parliamentarians during two stages. The first will be for the motion before it is handed over to the Speaker and the second will be at the vote following a successful Supreme Court inquiry. In 1991, one of the reasons the motion to impeach President R Premadasa failed was because the speaker was not convinced about the allegations in it.
Another measure which can be considered is to bring in a candidate for the premiership who will command the respect of all political parties through the National List.
The current constitution provides for the speaker or prime minister to act as president in the eventuality of the president resigning and either will have to appoint a successor president within one month.
The appointment of a new governor to the Central Bank, Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe, was a lifeline to a drowning country. Dr. Weerasinghe, a professional of integrity, was compelled to take early retirement in 2020 after he was politically victimized. His appointment follows the resignation of the former governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal who left under a cloud. Cabraal, together with the President’s brother Basil Rajapakse who was also the finance minister until earlier this week and Goatabaya Rajapakse, is discredited for the country’s current economic debacle and many in the country will not be sorry to see him go.
The new governor’s immediate task is to stabilize the economy. During his first press conference after taking the job, he alikened the current state of the economy to ‘a car without brakes going down a precipice’ but said that together with his team, he is confident they can turn the situation around before the car crashes. ‘This is why I accepted this post’, he told journalists who were at the press conference. ‘The car will go down some more because it cannot be turned around at once and in the interim there will be economic difficulties that the people will have to bear with’.
The governor also said that he accepted the job on the basis that he can work independently and assured that that is how he has always worked. ‘The Central Bank functions have to be carried out independently without external influences’.
Dr. Weerasinghe was upfront and said he does not know how long it will take for the economy to reset but that political stability will quicken the recovery. The governor and the new Secretary to the Treasury Mahinda Siriwardena will be a part of the team which will be going for talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington in the days to come. The IMF will look for assurances about the country’s political stability.
While the country grapples with multiple crisis another which is raising its head is the looming catastrophe in the health sector, also being crippled without foreign exchange to buy vital medicines and equipment. The crisis hits at a time the health ministry is without a minister following the resignation of the cabinet of ministers at the start of the week.
The Sri Lanka Medical Association (SLMA) has written to the President and asked for an emergency meeting to discuss the pressing issues they are facing. In their letter they informed the President about an acute shortage of medicines and equipment in government and private hospitals and the decision which had already been taken to limit routine surgeries and supplies to life threatening illnesses. They highlighted that the situation will worsen when emergency treatment is also stopped.
Other specialists meanwhile have started their own public appeals for assistance. A flyer from the College of Anaesthesiologists explained how Sri Lanka is facing a shortage of life saving drugs and essential consumables due to the unprecedented foreign exchange crisis and said that the ‘College feels it is our responsibility to come forward to face it’. They appealed for funds to pay local suppliers from whom they will be sourcing medical supplies.
The Government Medical Officers Association and the Perinatal Society of Sri Lanka have also appealed to the public for assistance to save lives
