Ranil proved Bismarck’s words that politics was the art of possible
When German statesman Otto von Bismarck said that politics was the art of the possible, he didn’t have Ranil Wickremesinghe in mind but the latter is certainly proving Bismarck’s point.
Wickremesinghe’s unexpected and fortuitous elevation to the Presidency in July came under strange and unpredictable circumstances. Wickremesinghe should really not get credit for that. He got the job only because the Rajapaksas saw him as the ‘default’ option who was better than Sajith Premadasa or Sarath Fonseka because both of them would have prosecuted the Rajapaksa clan- an action Wickremesinghe will never take.
If at all Wickremesinghe deserves any kudos, that is for sheer perseverance, never leaving politics despite defeat after defeat and lingering like a bad smell. That however came at a cost, that of ruining the United National Party (UNP) and in turn, depriving the country of a major political alternative.
However, what Wickremesinghe should really get credit for was what he did last week: passing the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution. It is true that the 22nd Amendment is not quite the 19th Amendment, it doesn’t emasculate the President as much. Nevertheless, it does impose some significant restrictions on presidential actions, especially in making key appointments. How it plays out in the real world of Sri Lankan politics remains to be seen but this is at least a start.
What was surprising was the outcome in Parliament. The amendment was passed with 179 votes to one, the lone dissenter once again being Sarath Weerasekara who had previously opposed the 19th Amendment as well. Some forty-five MPs, most of them from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), kept away. That included Mahinda Rajapaksa and the ‘usual suspects’ such as Prasanna Ranatunga, Johnston Fernando, Pavithra Wanniarachchi and Rohitha Abeygunawardena.
Nevertheless, the likes of Namal Rajapaksa and Chamal Rajapaksa voted for the amendment. This, coupled with the fact that none of the SLPP dissenters had the gumption to vote against the amendment (with the exception of the maverick Weerasekara) meant that the Rajapaksas were sending mixed signals. Obviously, their heart and soul are not with the letter and spirit of the amendment but at the same time, perhaps sensing the public mood, they are wary about openly opposing it.
While the changes expected from the amendment are generally salutary, one of the main factors impeding the smooth progress in the legislature was the clause preventing dual citizens from holding elected office. The person most affected by the SLPP’s founder and political ideologue Basil Rajapaksa.
Rajapaksa who could not enter Parliament in 2015 due to the 19th Amendment being in force, returned in 2019 after it was replaced by the 20th Amendment only to be compelled to resign ignominiously as Finance Minister earlier this year. A comeback was said to be in the offing but now, the amendment that was passed last week will derail those plans.
This is where Ranil Wickremesinghe should take a bow. Somehow, he has managed to coax dozens of SLPP MPs who owe their political life to Basil Rajapaksa to vote for an amendment that shuts Basil Rajapaksa out of Parliament at least for the foreseeable future. It must have been an exercise quite similar to convincing SLPP MPs to vote for him in that contest with Dullas Alahapperuma when Parliament elected a President.
Ranil Wickremesinghe had a reputation of losing election after election for the UNP. Now however, he is demonstrating that when it is about winning votes in Parliament, he can be quite the tactician. It is no secret that the outcome of last week’s vote on the constitutional amendment took many by surprise and casts a new light on President Wickremesinghe’s political strategy in the coming years.
The fact that so many SLPP MPs dared to defy the dreaded Rajapaksa’s and toe Wickremesinghe’s line indicates that they are preparing for what lies ahead. It is obvious to anyone that the SLPP’s popularity is at a very low ebb. So, SLPP parliamentarians are doing the next best thing: cosying up to Ranil Wickremesinghe in the hope that he will fashion an alliance that will ensure their return to Parliament at the next general election. Certain MPs of the SLPP are known to be currying favour with Wickremesinghe and are even willing to join the UNP at the next hustings if that would guarantee their return to the legislature.
For his part, Wickremesinghe could do with all the help he can get. Despite all the powers conferred on him by the Constitution, Wickremesinghe remains vulnerable in Parliament. His UNP still has only the solitary MP, albeit in the form of the slavish Vajira Abeywardena. Therefore, he must rely on the SLPP MPs to do his bidding in Parliament.
Political ideology and even astute political strategizing suggest that the more logical option for Wickremesinghe would be to team up with the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). After all, they are all a bunch of renegades who left the UNP after being unable to stomach nearly three decades of Wickremesinghe’s leadership. He would relate to them much, much more than he would to the likes of the Wanniarachchis, Abeygunawardenas and Johnston Fernandos.
However, that would also mean that Wickremesinghe would have to compromise. He would have to shed his current draconian ways and authoritarian tactics. He would have to subscribe to the democratic tenets he preached for almost thirty years as Leader of the Opposition. Perhaps most importantly, he would also be called upon to probe the errors of commission and omission committed by the Rajapaksas-which he will simply not do.
Therein lies Wickremesinghe’s dilemma. Until last week, he would have thought that, with the Rajapaksa dominated SLPP being his rivals, he would have to seek support elsewhere. Not anymore. Last Friday’s vote would have convinced Wickremesinghe that it will be much easier for him to put together an unlikely alliance- his loyalists in the UNP and dissidents from the SLPP of whom there appears to be quite a few.
This is Wickremesinghe’s newest political project: fashioning a new political faction with the next elections in mind. We would have expected that, at this time of national crisis, Ranil Wickremesinghe would be a statesman and think of the next generation. Instead, he remains a politician and appears to be thinking of the next election.
