By Kassapa
With just over two weeks remaining of the presidential election campaign, the latest question is whether the United National Party (UNP) and its breakaway faction the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) will arrive at a compromise in the face of the surging popularity of the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB).
That this is even being discussed is evidence that the JJB has emerged as a serious, if not the leading contender at the election. It is also a fair assessment that the JJB has conducted the most organised and well thought out campaign. It released its election manifesto first and its grassroots network is now engaged in house-to-house campaigning. It has used the groundswell of support against corruption and abuse of power, generated during the political uprising in 2022, to good effect.
This could be interpreted as a seismic moment in the Sri Lankan political landscape. The two-party political system, in existence since independence always shifted between the right-of-centre United National Party (UNP) and its allies and the left-of-centre Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and its partners.
In the post-2019 scenario, the UNP and the SLFP were replaced by their respective breakaway groups, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). The fundamental flaw in this shift was that it wasn’t based on any ideological differences but the greed for personal power: Sajith Premadasa concluded that Ranil Wickremesinghe will never hand over the reins of the UNP to him and formed the SJB, the SLPP was born to resurrect the Rajapaksa dynasty. In the meantime, the Wickremesinghe and Maithripala Sirisena ensured that the UNP and the SLFP imploded.
Today, five years later, both the SLPP and the SJB are battling for survival. The SLPP has been split three-ways, some remaining with Namal Rajapaksa, some joining Wickremesinghe and others aligning with Premadasa. Meanwhile, the SJB is being systematically undermined by Wickremesinghe poaching its leading lights such as Rajitha Senaratne, Thalatha Atukorale while Premadasa’s own leadership style angered former party chairman Sarath Fonseka who finally left of his own accord.
Wickremesinghe had an opportunity to resurrect the UNP when he was handed the presidency on a platter two years and a few months ago but he has wasted that chance. The Grand Old Party, a political behemoth during the J.R. Jayewardene era is now reduced to a ghost of its former self to the extent that most of Wickremesinghe’s campaigning is done not by his own party but by those who defected from the SLPP.
In hindsight, these are the effects of the political upheaval in 2022, the ‘aragalaya’. Not only did it chase away Gotabaya Rajapaksa and effectively end the Rajapaksa dynasty, it also shattered the two-party system and brought the JJB to the fore as a viable alternative with real potential to gain state power. The dismantling of the two-party system was of such magnitude that, in the new political equation, the JJB occupies one end of the spectrum. Who occupies the other end is uncertain, it is not clear whether it is the UNP, SJB or the SLPP.
The final answer to that question will be determined perhaps not after the presidential election but only after the general election that will inevitably follow, if one single party emerges as a major stakeholder. It is possible that, even after a general election, we may not have a clear contender for that role.
It is this sinking feeling that the Wickremesinghe and Premadasa campaigns are feeling now that has prompted a dialogue as to whether these two candidates- once the leader and deputy leader of the UNP and the political heirs of the former leader and deputy leader of the UNP- should forget their differences and unite to defeat the common enemy, Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
Public calls for this have been made by Rajitha Senaratne and Thalatha Atukorale to no avail. Atukorale said that the duo was “committing political suicide” by contesting against each other. Thus far, these calls have been ignored and both Wickremesinghe and Premadasa have been relentlessly critical of each other on political platforms.
At the crux of the matter is the intense personal dislike Wickremesinghe and Premadasa have for each other. Wickremesinghe believes that Premadasa owes him for standing by his father during the impeachment crisis but has never felt that Premadasa had leadership qualities. Even the latter’s appointment as deputy leader of the UNP was after a bitter leadership vote.
This is where Wickremesinghe differs from J.R. Jayewardene. Jayewardene would have been more comfortable if he were succeeded by Lalith Athulathmudali or Gamini Dissanayake but he had the political wisdom to realise such an appointment would lead to chaos in the UNP, so he allowed the more senior, the more popular Ranasinghe Premadasa to take over the reins and graciously stepped away.
Wickremesinghe obviously doesn’t possess the political wisdom of his uncle. Unlike Jayewardene, he has also never been secure about his own position in the UNP because losing elections was a bad habit he seems to have the knack for. Always under pressure, his comfort zone was to retreat to his position as UNP leader and protect that with gusto, much to the detriment of the party.
As a result, Premadasa harbours great resentment towards Wickremesinghe and does not have the confidence that he will ever step down. Even if he does, it could be after anointing a successor in the form of Ravi Karunanayake, Sagala Ratnayake or Ruwan Wijewardene. So, the option of ‘doing a deal’ with Wickremesinghe is not enticing for Premadasa.
The ground reality is that Premadasa is ahead of Wickremesinghe in the popularity stakes as of now. So, for any agreement between the duo to eventuate, Wickremesinghe would have to agree to be Prime Minister under a Premadasa Presidency. That will be personally insulting to Wickremesinghe and not an option he would agree to.
Politics is said to be the ‘art of the possible’ and it does make a lot of political sense if Wickremesinghe and Premadasa were to pool their resources to battle Anura Kumara Dissanayake. That however will not happen because of two people, Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa.
