Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has demonstrated his survival skills once again. He has lived up to his reputation as a master escapologist without compare. We argued in a previous column that he shouldn’t be underestimated and escapology was his forte. That he would survive the no-faith motion against him, on Wednesday (April 04), in Parliament was a foregone conclusion. It was a simple numbers game, the outcome of which was not difficult to guess. Even if 10 UNP MPs had either voted for the motion or abstained in protest, the PM would still have been able to muster a simple majority (113 out of 225) with the help of the TNA’s 16 members. Only the naïve expected the PM to lose the vote, which was the outcome of the Joint Opposition’s political adventurism. The UNP secured 122 votes against it and the JO 76 while 26 others abstained. The Speaker didn’t have to vote as there was no tie to break.
Every MP is concerned about his or her own political survival and decisions in Parliament are influenced by the interests of strategic alliances and not principles or scruples. The SLMC, which had been critical of the way the government with PM Wickremesinghe as the Minister of Law and Order handled the anti-Muslim riots in Ampara and Kandy, changed its tune and threw its weight behind the PM. It has made a mockery of its protests against the government.
There is no love lost between Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and many UNP seniors, but the latter couldn’t back a move by the Joint Opposition (JO) to get rid of him without incurring the wrath of the party’s rank and file. The PM took advantage of the situation and craftily turned the no-faith move into a battle between the JO and the UNP. Thus, he made it difficult for even the party’s dissident MPs, bent on ousting him, to vote against him. They knew they would run the risk of being branded traitor if they backed the no-faith motion moved by the JO.It was a clever move on the part of the PM. MPs Range Bandara and Wasantha Senanayake, too, had to vote against the motion in spite of their criticism of the PM. MP Wijeyadasa Rajapaksa fell in line and Ven. Rathana abstained. If they had voted against the PM they would have been sacked and stripped of their seats. They have political ambitions which take precedence over principles. That is the way the cookie crumbles in politics.
Now, it is being argued in some quarters that the UNP dissidents who have voted against the motion of no confidence won’t be able to call for ousting their leader. Yes, they have forfeited their moral right to seek his removal. They will have to settle for what they get by way of party reforms the PM has promised them in return for voting in favour of him. It is highly unlikely that he will give the UNP a radical shake-up to the extent of losing the powers he currently wields and enabling another person to emerge powerful in the party. The signs are that the UNP’s internal problems won’t go away and the dissidents will change their strategy and resort to a different course of action which they can sell to the party membership in their efforts to oust their leader. The PM will have to be on his guard eternally.
Fallout of no-faith drama
The no-confidence motion has divided the unity government as never before. Fifteen SLFP ministers broke ranks with the UNP and voted against the PM in spite of President Maithripala Sirisena’s eleventh hour U-turn, which caused some of the UPFA MPs (numbering 25) to abstain from voting. The dissenting ministers have said they wouldn’t leave the Cabinet as the President is the head of government. Technically, that may be so, but the reality is otherwise. The PM is now more powerful than the President and the UNP calls the shots. They will be in the same predicament as a schoolboy who is doomed to be seated next to the worst bully in the college.
There is no way the President can axe the SLFP ministers who voted against the PM as he allowed them what he called a conscience vote. Their presence in the Cabinet is sure to be resisted by their UNP counterparts. This kind of hostility will further weaken the fragile unity of the government and aggravate political instability which has already taken a heavy toll on the ailing economy, creating more problems for the government on the political front.
That President Maithripala Sirisena sought to remove PM Wickremesinghe is only too well known. The no-confidence motion had his blessing and until the TNA pledged its solidarity with the PM, ending the numbers game he backed the JO’s abortive move. The PM’s victory has weakened Sirisena’s position in the government further as a lame-duck President. Some UNP MPs were heard, after Wednesday night’s vote, calling Wickremesinghe the future President of Sri Lanka.
President Sirisena finds himself in an unenviable position. His actual electoral strength was exposed at the local government polls last month. The UPFA and the SLFP, which went it alone in some areas, under his leadership, could poll only 13% of the total number of votes as opposed to the SLPP’s 45% and the UNP’s 33%. Wednesday’s parliamentary vote on the no-faith motion has shown that only 25 out of the UPFA’s 95 MPs are willing to do as he wishes. (They are the ones who abstained from voting.) The rapid disintegration of the Sirisena faction of the SLFP is manifestly clear. The President’s growing sense of insecurity may have compelled him to refrain from going all out to remove the PM and antagonise the UNP in the process as he can’t depend on the SLFP dissident group loyal to the Rajapaksas’ to defend him.
UNP’s woes far from over
It has now been revealed that the TNA got PM Wickremesinghe to accede to ten demands in return for helping defeat the no-faith motion. There is nothing called a free lunch and the TNA would do nothing for nothing. According to media reports, TNA MP Vanni District MP Selvam Addaikalanathan has said the PM acceded to the following demands: 1). Providing a political solution to the North-East problem expeditiously.
2). Enacting a new Constitution with a two-thirds majority in parliament before the next national election. 3). Ensuring that the military vacates all property belonging to civilians.
4). Granting general amnesty to all political prisoners. 5). Proving the wartime disappearances. 6). Protecting rights of those living in the Northern and Eastern Provinces. 7). Employment for youth living in the Northern and Eastern provinces. 8). Ensuring that those who are not resident in the North and the East will not be employed in the two provinces at the expense of eligible candidates there. 9). Appointing Tamils as Divisional Secretaries of eight Northern and Eastern administrative districts and 10). Taking into consideration views of members representing Northern and Eastern Provinces in respect of development projects as well as priority for projects undertaken by the Northern and Eastern Provincial Councils.
One may recall that Finance and Media Minister Mangala Samaraweera raised the TNA’s hopes in Parliament during Wednesday’s debate on the motion of no confidence by undertaking to introduce constitutional reforms etc. expeditiously so as to make sure the TNA would vote for the PM. TNA leader R. Sampanthan tried to camouflage his party’s agenda and demands by picking holes in the no-faith motion and pretending that he and his MPs would vote against it out of conviction. He said the allegations in the motion were not specific and there was no evidence to prove them. Interestingly, the TNA joined forces with the UNP and others who used unsubstantiated allegations in 2015 to defeat the then President Mahinda Rajapaksa seeking a third term. As for Sampanthan’s claim that the TNA voted against the no-faith motion due to its flaws, the take-up rate will be extremely low, if not zero. Even if the motion had been perfectly drafted with allegations therein convincingly substantiated, the TNA would still have found an excuse to vote against it. It helped defeat the motion not out of any love for Wickremesinghe but it thought that was the best way to further its interests.
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe must have agreed to the TNA demands out of sheer desperation. TNA has told the media that the PM initially refused to agree but later caved in under pressure. Any port in a storm, they say. He knew he would be done for forthwith without the TNA’s backing. Now, his task is to grant those demands and face the consequences which can be far more adverse than thought. They will be grist for his political opponents’ mill. The TNA, which has experienced an erosion of their vote base, will have to ensure that the government honours its promise. Will the President agree to grant the TNA’s demands? Above all, the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government has lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament, for all practical purposes, with 15 UPFA MPs loyal to the President having voted with the JO against the PM. It will have to muster those MPs to secure passage of even ordinary laws which require two-thirds majorities, let alone constitutional amendments.
The Rajapaksas’ loss of face
The JO lost its face on Wednesday. The defeat in Parliament has taken the gloss off its impressive win at the February 10 local government polls to some extent. Its no-faith motion turned out to be a vote of confidence of sorts for the PM regardless of the conditions on which he enlisted the TNA’s backing. If the Rajapaksas had known the kind of ending the no-confidence drama would have, they would not have sought to oust the PM in that manner. However, some benefits have accrued to them from the ill-fated no-faith vote.
The Sirisena camp of the SLFP is now divided. Fifteen of its members holding ministerial posts answered the Rajapaksas’ call for voting against the PM. The UNP has been pushed into a situation where it is dependent on the TNA for survival. This kind of arrangement won’t go down well with the voters outside the North and the East and will do the UNP no good at future elections. The TNA can help the UNP electorally only at a presidential election. The provincial council elections will precede presidential polls.
The UNP is aware of the gravity of the situation. A parliamentary majority doesn’t translate into grassroots level support at elections. It is suicidal for the government to postpone provincial council elections further. It is not ready for another electoral contest. It has too many promises to keep including the one it has just given the TNA and the dissident UNPers. Ranil has lived to fight another day. The battles he has to fight are numerous. This may explain the absence of street celebrations near Sirikotha.
