- A fait accompli for Ranil.
- Deposed Rajapaksas are testing the waters to make a comeback
Namal Rajapaksa earned a rebuke from cricketer Sanath Jayasuriya for appearing in a press briefing with Minister Kanchana Wijesekara. Jayasuriya, who hit out in style, said: “When players fail repeatedly and are dropped from a team, they should have the decency to take up another sport instead of coming for team meetings and embarrassing the new captain”!
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has set many records. When he was appointed Prime Minister recently, it was noted that he is the Sri Lankan who has been blessed with this honour most times, having been appointed Premier no less than six times.
His critics however noted that Wickremesinghe also holds the dubious distinction of never completing any of his terms in full. They wondered whether he will be sixth time lucky. Now, it appears that he won’t be.
After the devastation throughout the country, instigated initially by goons of the Mahinda Rajapaksa camp which went on a rampage at ‘Gota Go Gama’ in Galle Face, Rajapaksa resigned and, although it was made to look as if it was Sajith Premadasa’s refusal to form a government that led to Wickremesinghe’s appointment, that was never the case.
Wickremesinghe, having shepherded Mahinda Rajapaksa to the safety of Medamulana after his defeat to Maithripala Sirisena in January 2015, was always the Rajapaksas’ first choice for the Premiership. They knew that should the worst-case scenario eventuate and they had to flee the country, there was no better guarantor for their safety than Ranil Wickremesinghe.
That was how Ranil Wickremesinghe, despite having no other members of his United National Party (UNP) to support him in Parliament, despite being a person with no mandate from the voters because he was appointed from the National List, came to be appointed as Prime Minister for a record sixth time.
What the Rajapaksas’ desired from this appointment was an easing of the political tension in the country that was quickly transforming itself into a tidal wave of anger, even hatred, against the Rajapaksa dynasty. That hatred is the reason why, Mahinda Rajapaksa, twelve years ago hailed as the saviour of the nation for defeating terrorism and ending the Eelam war, had to flee to the safety of a Navy camp in Trincomalee after mobs tried but failed to break into Temple Trees.
That task has now been achieved, almost in total. Since then, Basil Rajapaksa was seen in public, albeit to hear the verdict in a court case where he was exonerated. He then resigned from Parliament after holding a media conference where he had the gumption to refuse to take any responsibility for the current crisis in the country. Mahinda Rajapaksa has returned to Colombo and made a speech in Parliament where he claimed that the protestors at Galle Face ‘had blood on their hands.
Perhaps the most daring of the Rajapaksas’ appearances has been that of Namal Rajapaksa sitting alongside Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekara at a media briefing to discuss the fuel crisis. Rajapaksa copped a lot of flak for his appearance with questions being raised as to what role he played in the relevant Ministry. He even earned a rebuke from cricketer Sanath Jayasuriya who hit out in style: “When players fail repeatedly and are dropped from a team, they should have the decency to take up another sport instead of coming for team meetings and embarrassing the new captain”!
Nevertheless, these public appearances by three Rajapaksas- Basil, Mahinda and Namal- all suggest that they feel the tide is slowly turning. It is not that the country is once again seeing some affection for the Rajapaksa clan but just that they feel the wrath of the masses is slowly lessening in intensity.
Therefore, now that the appointment of Ranil Wickremesinghe has served its purpose, he could be disposed of. That is the thinking of at least the Basil Rajapaksa camp of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) although brothers Mahinda and Gotabaya may be inclined for Wickremesinghe to linger on for a little while longer.
However, to retain his position as Prime Minister, Wickremesinghe needs to enjoy the support of the majority in Parliament and that is where Basil Rajapaksa has his clout. This has already been demonstrated in no small measure when Wickremesinghe wanted the Samagi Jana Balavegaya’s Rohini Kaviratne appointed as Deputy Speaker but Basil Rajapaksa prevailed upon his backbench acolytes in the SLPP to vote for the mediocre Ajith Rajapaksa instead.
The exit of Basil Rajapaksa from Parliament only removes him from the legislature officially and physically. He is still very much there in spirit with a band of loyalists doing his every bidding. His departure is also only a tactical ploy that would allow the 21st Amendment to go through Parliament without creating an unpleasant division in the SLPP. It is a safe bet that when the time is right, Basil Rajapaksa will return, with the necessary amendments being made to suit him, as it had been already done once with the passing of the 20th Amendment.
It is also extremely significant that Basil Rajapaksa is being replaced by Dhammika Perera, arguably the richest individual in the country. Perera will do exactly as the Rajapaksas tell him and be their loyal and faithful servant. With Gotabaya Rajapaksa still in office as President, he can’t do any less because that could endanger his varied business interests.
There is even speculation that Dhammika Perera is being groomed for the Premiership at Wickremesinghe’s expense. Whether the Rajapaksas will go that far remains to be seen because, being the successful businessman that he is, Perera is no pushover. Whether the Rajapaksas, even at this late stage, feel comfortable appointing a person with a strong personality as Prime Minister is questionable because they have always relied on family or the very faithful and the extremely feeble such as Ratnasiri Wikremanayake or D.M. Jayaratne.
Who Ranil Wickremesinghe’s successor will be may be uncertain at this time but what is certain is that his days as Prime Minister are numbered. If reasons are required for his dismissal by the President- apart from the pressure from his own party- Gotabaya Rajapaksa could always argue that the economic miracle that Wickremesinghe was supposed to perform has not happened. If anything, the crisis has worsened and the Premier has been reduced to issuing regular warnings to the public about this.
The hullabaloo at the recent SLPP parliamentary group meeting calling for Wickremesinghe’s exit was just a dress rehearsal. The real drama is due to open to the general public in the coming weeks- and Ranil Wickremesinghe will keep his record of never completing a term in office intact.
