People’s resentment is palpable, and there is a huge pressure build-up in politics. The government is not doing enough to defuse it. Its much-advertised relief package is of little use, given the huge rise in inflation, and shortages of all kinds; it has also not benefited the private sector workers and the self-employed. Money will have to be printed to fund the relief measures, and the economy will take another hit. On the political front, the ruling SLPP is losing ground, but the main Opposition party, the SJB, has not been able to make the most of the situation. The only party that seems to have got its act together is the JVP, which is therefore widely expected to shore up its image and recover lost ground significantly. Will the Marxist outfit be able to capitalize on public ire and improve its electoral performance at the expense of both the SLPP, the SJB and the SLFP? (The UNP shows no signs of recovering in the foreseeable future.)
Growing cynicism
The Sri Lankan polity has become extremely cynical about political authority thanks to public disillusionment with political parties and their leaders. Social media acts as a barometer of the people’s disappointment with the entire political system, which they consider rotten to the core. Time was when Sri Lankans used to elect the two main parties, the UNP and the SLFP, almost alternately, for want of a better alternative. The situation changed after the 1977 general election and the introduction of the Proportional Representation system, which led to coalition politics. Every political party with parliamentary representation has been in a political coalition at least once, and some of them have almost lost their identities like the traditional left-wing parties.
Coalitions led by either the SLFP or the UNP were able to capture power because of their main constituents’ solid vote banks which were augmented by votes attracted by others. But the coming together of the UNP and the SLFP and their coalition partners to form the National Unity government, in 2015, made people, who were fed up with that administration, look for alternatives to both the UNP and the SLFP. The SLPP< which emerged as an alternative to the SLFP and the SJB, an offshoot of the UNP, changed the course of Sri Lanka’s post-Independence political history, by beating the SLFP and the UNP respectively.
The SJB politicians have not been able to live down their past as members of the yahapalana government, which the people rejected wholesale due to its corruption, inefficiency and pathetic failure; they have survived politically thanks to their breakaway at the right time, unlike their UNP counterparts, all of whom lost their seats, at the 2020 general election, but it is doubtful whether the people are yet ready to entrust them with the task of governing the country. The SLPP is ruining things for itself. It has failed to live up to people’s expectations, and become a metaphor for bungling. Its popularity is on the wane so much so that it is now wary of facing a midterm election; it is reportedly trying to postpone elections to the Local Government institutions, whose terms will end in a few months. It keeps trotting out various excuses for not making new laws for the much-delayed Provincial Council (PC) polls to be held.
SLPP, UNP, SLFP and TNA
The UNP and the SLFP will not be able to make a comeback anytime soon. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has become a mono-ethnic regional party, and cannot pose a political threat to its counterparts seeking to capture power. The SJB shows no signs of being able to turn the tables on the government before the next election. The SLPP is not managing its electoral gains and its administration has been an extension of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government, which people rejected in 2015. The JVP is trying to move in to fill this void. It attempted to capture state power twice through violent means only to be brutally suppressed. But in 2004, it performed extremely well electorally. It fielded a little over 50 candidates from the SLFP-led United Freedom Front Alliance (UPFA) and secured 41 seats and donated two National List slots to the SLFP. It is apparently hoping for a repeat performance, given the difficulties other political parties are experiencing.
If social media posts are anything to go by, then the JVP’s popularity is on the rise. But this could be deceptive, and ‘likes’ and ‘hits’ do not necessarily translate into votes at elections. JVP leaders have been able to impress the electorate with their oratorical skills. They are tearing both the government, the SJB, the UNP, the SLFP, etc., to shreds much to the glee of the resentful public, especially the youth known for their anti-establishment sentiments. But people behave differently at elections.
Chilean experiment and JVP
The recent victory of the left-wing candidate, Gabriel Boric, in the Chilean presidential election, must have kindled the JVP’s hope. Boric, 35, cut his teeth on politics as a student leader, and rose to the top post in the country rapidly. But the fact remains that his opponent, Jose Antonio Kast, won the first round of the presidential election last month, and before the second round, his rivals dug up his father’s ugly past as a Nazi who fought in the German Army. Documentary proof was unearthed, and that sealed Kast’s fate, making Boric’s victory possible.
The JVP seems to think the tide has already turned, and it will be able to improve its electoral performance under its own steam. Its politburo member and former MP K. D. Lal Kantha has recently declared that they will not coalesce with any other party to contest future elections, as the people have rejected all other parties, and the JVP does not want to sully its good name by joining forces with them. This has been his response to SLFP General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera’s recent statement that his party would forge an alliance with the JVP. SLFP Leader and former President Maithripala Sirisena is rallying support for a new political movement, and is openly taking on the government. His battle plan is clear; he wants to repackage and market himself as an alternative to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who has already made known his intention to seek a second term, but failed to be the presidential role model he was expected to be.
JVP’s liabilities
There are several factors that work against the JVP. First, it has no experience whatsoever in governing the country. It is among the most vociferous critics of the government who have attributed the inability of the incumbent administration to perform well to President Rajapaksa’s lack of experience.
The JVP squandered the best opportunity it got in 2004 to gain some experience in government. It should have remained in the Chandrika Kumaratunga government and made a real difference in politics while learning the ropes. Instead, it pulled out of that administration over the latter’s attempt to share tsunamis relief with the LTTE. Kumaratunga’s effort to set up a joint mechanism to distribute aid with the help of the LTTE failed, and the JVP returned to Opposition politics for good. Today, as the Jathika Jana Balawegaya it has only three seats in the parliament.
The JVP blotted its copybook badly by aligning itself with the yahapalana government. Its leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake was a member of the Executive Council of the caretaker government formed by the UNP and the SLFP after defeating President Mahinda Rajapaksa in the 2015 presidential race. The critics of the JVP also claim that Dissanayake was in and out of the Temple Trees when Ranil Wickremesinghe was the Prime Minister. The JVP also played a pivotal role in protecting the UNF government, after the SLFP’s pull-out in 2018; its leaders openly backed Wickremesinghe, who succeeded in staying in power. It was that association which led to the JVP’s poor performance at the 2002 general election. If it had remained impartial, letting the UNP, the SLFP and the Joint Opposition, which later became the SLPP, sort out their problems, perhaps it would have been able to obtain more seats as an alternative to all of them.
Backseat driving and tall order
The JVP is without a programme of action or a roadmap. Its biggest problem will be to market its threadbare ideology, which lacks pragmatism. Nobody believes in a socialist utopia any longer. Even China is facing a dilemma. What the JVP has been doing all these years is backseat driving; the only thing the JVP is capable of doing effectively is to criticize governments and Opposition parties that it considers a political challenge. It no doubt is carrying out the most effective anti-government campaign, and its MPs are behaving and performing extremely well in the parliament. They are well-informed, focused, and carry out their legislative duties and functions properly. They are the only ones who provide fresh insights into issues taken up for debate in the House. But this alone is not sufficient for them to convince the public that they are equal to the task of running the country. We have seen many brilliant orators who impressed the masses as Opposition politicians fail after being elected to power and given responsibilities.
The JVP has a long way to go before being accepted by the people as a party capable of ruling the country, and what it can do now is to lay the foundation for its grand political project and work towards achieving its goal by improving its electoral performance the way it did in 2004. But there is no harm in aiming high in everything in life.
