Whether we like it or not, Basil is back.
Basil Rajapaksa, younger brother of Chamal, Mahinda and Gotabaya, founder of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), mastermind of the Rajapaksas’ political comeback in 2019 and the Finance Minister who plunged Sri Lanka into the financial abyss it finds itself in now, has returned to the country.
Rajapaksa left Sri Lanka for the United States in September after the courts granted him permission to do so. He was due back by January next year. His premature return has fuelled speculation that something is in the offing and that Basil has returned to ensure that whatever political stunt he is planning is executed to perfection.
It was only a few weeks ago that observers were predicting the end of the road for Basil Rajapaksa’s political career. That was after Parliament endorsed the 21st Amendment by a two-thirds majority with the votes of many SLPP MPs who had been groomed by Rajapaksa.
The 21st Amendment bars dual citizens from holding elected office. Rajapaksa is probably the country’s most famous (or infamous) dual citizen, also being a citizen of the United States. Previously, he has vowed not to ever renounce his United States citizenship.
If Rajapaksa is to return to the legislature, one of two processes has to happen. A government well disposed towards him could pass legislating revoking the clause barring dual citizens from holding elected office. That is precisely what Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government did with the 20th Amendment.
Alternatively, Basil Rajapaksa could renounce his United States citizenship. That is what Gotabaya Rajapaksa did to contest the Presidency. However, after seeing the pickle Gotabaya got himself into when he had to flee the country and no nation was willing to offer him a visa but he couldn’t return to the US as well, Basil must surely be having second thoughts about that.
Basil Rajapaksa was accorded a hero’s welcome at the Colombo Airport on Sunday. His loyal and faithful servants, MPs from the SLPP, gathered in their numbers and literally bent over, hands clasped, to pay their respects to their Lord and Master. Obviously, they believe that only Basil Rajapaksa can resurrect their political fortunes because the popularity of the ‘pohottuwa’ party is at a very low ebb these days. Seeing those scenes, one cannot but help wonder in amazement at the slavish mentality of these politicians.
More importantly, what are the real implications of Basil’s return to the country? How will it impact the current political equation? What are the consequences for Basil himself who is a defendant in a Fundamental Rights petition where legal action is being sought against Basil and brother Gotabaya for alleged financial irregularities and mismanagement of the country’s economy.
It was no secret that, with Gotabaya Rajapaksa fleeing the country and Mahinda Rajapaksa having to take refuge from the masses at a Naval base in Trincomalee, it was Basil Rajapaksa who pulled strings to coax and coerce SLPP MPs to vote for Ranil Wickremesinghe when Parliament met to choose a President. Whatever his faults, this shows Rajapaksa’s political dexterity: he convinced SLPP MPs to vote for a man who was their political bete noire for decades instead of one of their own, Dullas Alahapperuma.
The quid pro quo for the Rajapaksas was obvious. Basil wanted assurances from Wickremesinghe on two issues: that the Rajapaksas would not be actively persecuted and prosecuted and that Wickremesinghe would not dissolve the current Parliament prematurely. For Wickremesinghe, for whom the job he craved for all his life was about to be served on a platter, it was a very easy decision. He readily acquiesced.
Since then though, there have been some tense times. Wickremesinghe hasn’t reneged on his pledges. The Rajapaksas are largely unscathed despite all the havoc they have inflicted on the country. There are no signs that Wickremesinghe will call for an early general election. With his own United National Party (UNP) still in the doldrums in the popularity stakes, he too would prefer another two years of the status quo. In fact, it is the Cabinet of Gotabaya Rajapaksa that still functions, with the exception of G.L. Peiris being replaced by Ali Sabry.
Nevertheless, that hasn’t stopped Basil Rajapaksa from trying to influence Wickremesinghe. He has reportedly requested Wickremesinghe to appoint more Cabinet ministers, comprising mostly of Rajapaksa’s own loyalists, the likes of Rohitha Abeygunawardena, Mahindananda Aluthgamage and Pavithra Wanniarachchi. Wickremesinghe has thus far resisted and Rajapaksa being in the United States helped to defer these requests.
The pressure will increase on Wickremesinghe now, with Basil Rajapaksa back in the country and being in a position to have a more direct dialogue with the President. It will be interesting to see whether the President is able to maintain his stance that he won’t appoint persons with dubious credentials as ministers or whether he will cave in to pressure from Rajapaksa.
As for the legal proceedings against Basil Rajapaksa, it is a stretch of the imagination to expect a court to determine that he was directly responsible for the country’s economic crisis, find him guilty and penalise him. Besides, the wheels of justice turn in mysterious ways in Sri Lanka.
Basil’s primary task on returning to Sri Lanka is not only to get his men and women into the Cabinet but also to rejuvenate the SLPP, if that is all possible. In so doing, he will take a leaf out of Wickremesinghe’s book.
Once President, Wickremesinghe tried to poach MPs from the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), inviting them to re-join the UNP. He succeeded in recruiting only Harin Fernando and Manusha Nanayakkara although attempts to tempt Rajitha Senaratne are ongoing.
Rajapaksa will try the same tactic with the nearly three dozen renegade ‘pohottuwa’ MPs who are floating around in three so-called ‘independent’ groups led by Wimal Weerawansa, Dullas Alahapperuma and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa, dangling carrots of Cabinet portfolios before them.
Basil Rajapaksa will try to do what he does best: he will attempt to waive the rules and rule the waves. The most likely outcome will be a marriage of convenience between Ranil Wickremesinghe and Basil Rajapaksa that will maintain the status quo in Parliament until at least end 2024. Thereafter, if the UNP and the SLPP pool their resources at the next election, no one should be surprised.
