Ranil Wickremesinghe is in a dilemma. He declared in the parliament, on Tuesday, that he did not know whether he was in the government or in the Opposition. That he is in a state of confusion became evident when he, immediately after being sworn in as the Prime Minister, called on the GotaGoGama protesters not to abandon their agitation, and promised to provide them with all necessary facilities. The protesters are demanding the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who is now Ranil’s boss! Then, on Tuesday, Ranil blamed the Opposition for having botched an attempt to advance the debate on a censure motion against the President. He said the Opposition should not have tried to have Standing Orders suspended for that purpose. He spoke like an Opposition MP. However, he will overcome his confusion with the passage of time, especially after the appointment of a full Cabinet.
Ranil is the political version of a rubber ball; he has a remarkable ability to bounce back. This is the sixth comeback he had made as PM. Whoever would have expected him to return to Temple Trees when he lost his seat at the 2020 general election,and the UNP was left with only a single National List slot? His defeat was widely considered the end of the road for him on the political front. But he manipulated the UNP, as is his wont, and entered Parliament via the National List, and waited until the Rajapaksa government ruined things for itself with the SJB failing to be an effective countervailing force against the SLPP. It was not a long wait. Cocky and reckless, the SLPP leaders mismanaged everything, save the national vaccination programme, which helped contain the Covid-19 pandemic; anything they touched turned into a mess. Naturally, the economy went into a tailspin, and people took to the streets.
Crises as opportunities
Nobody likes crises, but opportunities often come disguised as crises. Ranil seems to have followed Machiavelli’s advice: ‘Never waste the opportunity offered by a good crisis’. Churchill also said something similar during the bleakest hour of World War II: ‘Never let a crisis go to waste.’ Ranil became the PM for the first time in May 1993, thanks to a huge political crisis that the assassination of President Ranasinghe Premadasa plunged the country into. This time around, a mega economic crisis has stood him in good stead.
Power is like fire. One has to handle it with care, or become a victim of it. The Rajapaksa government is in the current predicament because it mismanaged its victory, and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, whose popularity helped the SLPP win as many as 145 seats in the current parliament, had to resign. Ranil has become the PM today because he managed his defeat properly, so to speak! In 2015, too, the UNP was left without enough seats to form a government; it had only about 42 seats owing to crossovers, but Ranil became the Prime Minister thanks to Mahinda’s defeat in the presidential race. Ranil has improved his performance tremendously, cynical as it may sound; he has become the PM despite having no other seat in the parliament. Perhaps, this is a world record. He has told the BBC that Churchill had the backing of only four MPs in 1939, but became the PM due to a crisis. He, too, had become the PM of Sri Lanka due to a crisis, he said.
Ranil has also gained politically from Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa’s indecisiveness. The President invited Premadasa to accept the premiership four times, according to media reports, but the latter kept on upping the ante, insisting that the former had to resign for the SJB to form a government. He staged protest marches, etc., demanding the resignation of the entire government and a snap general election. Then, he made a U-turn when the President invited Ranil to be the PM, and softened his stand; a few hours before the swearing-in of Ranil, he said he was willing to be the PM if a timeframe was set for the resignation of the President. But it was too late. He missed the bus.
Gargantuan task
It is one thing to become the Prime Minister; it is quite another to live up to people’s expectations. What Ranil has undertaken to perform is an economic miracle, no less. There are hardly any foreign reserves left. Everything is in short supply. People are rioting near filling stations, demanding fuel. It is feared that power cuts will be extended when rains cease. A food crisis is looming large.
President Rajapaksa has chosen to maintain a very low profile, and Ranil will draw all the flak if the government fails to deliver. But Ranil has nothing to lose; he lost even his seat at the last general election. The popularity of the UNP having hit rock bottom, Ranil does not have to worry about things getting worse for him or his party politically. If the economy recovers due to his efforts or those of others, or both, he will gain a great deal of political traction, and the UNP will be able to improve its electoral performance significantly at the next general election. This is a worrisome proposition for the SJB, which has now agreed to support the government without being part of it on the strict condition that no attempt will be made to engineer crossovers from its ranks. Its shadow Finance Minister, Dr. Harsha de Silva, has offered to lead the parliamentary committee on Finance to be formed, to help steer the country out of the present economic crisis.
When Ranil was appointed PM last week, it was widely thought that he would not be able to secure the support of the majority of members of the parliament, and his tenure would be short-lived. But circumstances have compelled the SLPP including its dissident group, and the SJB to throw in their lot with him. If the country fails to overcome the economic crisis, it will face the same fate as Lebanon or even Libya, and winning elections will be of no use to any political party. An economic crisis invariably leads to anarchy if it is allowed to spin out of control, and someone has to lead the country’s efforts to put its economy back on an even keel. Ranil has come forward. This reality seems to have dawned on the ruling party and the SJB. Hence their pledge of support for the new government.
Whatever the motives of the government, Ranil and the SJB, the country will gain from their cooperation. Political stability is essential for economic recovery.
Ranil and jinx
It is said that Ranil has never been able to complete his full term as the PM since 1994. He clashed with President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga when he was the PM from 2001 to 2004. Chandrika sacked his government. He also brought himself on a collision course with President Maithripala Sirisena between 2015 and 2019. Sirisena sacked him in October 2018. Ranil, however, managed to turn the tables on Sirisena and become the PM again a few weeks later. Then he lost the premiership in November 2019 following the victory of President Rajapaksa.
Whether Ranil will be able to break the jinx this time around remains to be seen.
