Former President Maithripala Sirisena is in the news again. He has embarked on a campaign to have a new government formed. He has told the media that there has to be a truly all-party caretaker government to steer the country out of the present crisis, and the incumbent administration is not equal to the task. He says it is experiencing the same problems as the yahapalana regime (2015-2019), owing to differences between President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.
The yahapalana government became frustratingly dysfunctional due to clashes between President Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe so much so that even national security was compromised, and a group of terrorists were able to carry out the Easter Sunday carnage in 2019 with ease. Sirisena would have us believe that the current administration, which, he says, has failed, needs to be replaced with an all-party government.
Speculation is rife in political circles that Sirisena is trying to have a new government formed with SJB leader Sajith Premadasa as the Prime Minister in a bid to leave the SLPP and forge a new political alliance in time for the next general election, which is expected next year. He knows that it will be plain political suicide for the SLFP to contest under the SLPP banner again. The only way he could fortify his political future is to close ranks with the Opposition, especially the SJB, with whose leader he has a special affinity. When he was the President, he offered to sack PM Wickremesinghe and appoint Premadasa to that post. Premadasa turned down the offer repeatedly, and thereafter Sirisena appointed Mahinda Rajapaksa the Prime Minister in October 2018.
Elusive mind
Sirisena is blessed with a great deal of political acumen, which made his rise from humble origins to the highest position in the country possible. Experience has taught him how to play his cards well. He has outfoxed many politicians all these years, and exemplified the axiom that there are neither permanent friends nor permanent enemies in politics.
Sirisena knows how to further his interests in any situation. In late 2014, he proved that he was smarter than the then President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was the most popular political leader at the time. He left the UPFA government and challenged Rajapaksa in the presidential contest the following year. After securing the coveted presidency with the help of UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, he settled political scores with the Rajapaksas, some of whom were even arrested and remanded in connection with financial frauds, etc. But when the Rajapaksas made a comeback with the SLPP winning the 2018 local government polls, Sirisena smoked the peace pipe with them unflinchingly, and even replaced Prime Minister Wickremesinghe with Mahinda in 2018. The Sirisena-Rajapaksa government did not last long, but Sirisena succeeded in hitching his wagon to the SLPP, which was on a winning streak, and averted a crushing defeat at the 2020 general election unlike his yahapalana partner, Wickremesinghe, who lost his own seat. Sirisena managed to have a 14-member parliamentary group, and the SLFP won a seat in Jaffna as well. This time around, he is planning something big, but he is playing cards close to his chest. It is not easy to read his elusive mind.
Sirisena’s revenge?
Several SLFP heavyweights including Mahinda Amaraweera and Nimal Sirispala de Silva have joined the current Cabinet much to the consternation of Sirisena, who, however, has not reacted angrily to their disloyalty. He has chosen to act with an enormous amount of patience, but he knows he is likely to lose some more members of his parliamentary group to the government if the current administration continues.
The chances of PM Wickremesinghe being able to make use of his position to revive the UNP and steer it to an electoral victory are remote, but the Rajapaksa family is making a determined bid to recover lost ground on the political front. Basil Rajapaksa has resigned from the parliament, but he says he will remain active in politics. He is still in control of the SLPP parliamentary group. It is widely thought that the Rajapaksas have appointed Wickremesinghe the PM to keep Namal’s seat warm. Namal has already begun making public appearances, and drawn heavy flak from social media activists, and the Opposition, for being present at a recent media briefing given by Minister of Power and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera, who is a close friend of the Rajapaksa family.
It is only natural that Sirisena wants an interim government with the SLFP as a constituent formed in a hurry so that his MPs holding ministerial positions without his consent will lose them, and only those who are in his good books will be given Cabinet posts in the new administration he has in mind.
PM Wickremesinghe has already shot his bolt. There seems to be nothing more he could do. The UNP raised people’s expectations, and even claimed that its leader could raise billions of dollars almost overnight and make queues disappear. But the government continues to scrape the barrel, and stands accused of being all at sea and disregarding the woes of the public. The PM only makes speeches and issues warnings while the people are carrying out for relief. Other than urging the people to brace themselves for the worst, the government has done nothing to improve their lot. Queues are getting longer for fuel and gas, and the crippling diesel shortage has led to a food scarcity due to transport problems, and badly affected the farming community. The promised fertilizer stocks have not arrived yet, and it is feared that there may be a sharp drop in the Yala harvest as well. The government has demonstrated that it is not concerned about public opinion, and does not care to mend its ways, as could be seen from the way it recently passed the controversial Electricity (Amendment) Bill, which will do away with the bidding process in respect of large-scale power projects. Hence the contention of the Opposition that the government is far from tamed, and has to be ousted forthwith before it inflicts further damage on the country.
The SLFP has thrown its weight behind the Opposition in a bid to benefit from a wave of anti-government sentiments. The government can still muster enough numbers in the parliament to pass laws, but its approval ratings have dropped steeply outside. The Yahapalana governed was also able to retain a majority despite its unpopularity.
In 2014, Sirisena successfully pitted himself against the then Rajapaksa government and realized his presidential dream. This time around, troubled by the fear of being trounced at the next general election if the SLFP continues to be part of the ruling SLPP, he wants to jump ship. Whether things will go the way he expects remains to be seen.
