Some dissident government MPs have decided to function as an independent group in the parliament following the sacking of NFF leader Wimal Weerawansa and Pivithuru Hela Urumaya leader Udaya Gammanpila as ministers. Such a rift could not have come at a worse time for the government, which is struggling on the economic front with its approval ratings plummeting.
The recent launch of a set of proposals by the SLPP rebel group, representing 11 constituents of the ruling coalition, as an alternative roadmap for economic recovery, is thought to be the reason for the expulsion of Gammanpila and Weerawansa from the Cabinet. If so, the question is why Minister Vasudeva Nanayakkara, who subscribes to the above-mentioned proposals, attended their launch and has been very critical of the government, was spared. He has decided to refrain from functioning as a minister in protest against the sacking of his colleagues.
What was the real reason for the sacking of Weerawansa and Gammanpila, and how will it affect the future of the SLPP coalition? These are some of the questions being raised in political circles.
Weerawansa and Gammanpila have, at a media briefing, immediately after their expulsion from the Cabinet, claimed that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa sacked them at the behest of Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa, who, they say, holds a grudge against them. They have claimed Basil considers them an obstacle in his path. Weerawansa went on to say that Basil had left the country in 2015 as he had failed to have himself appointed the Opposition Leader, and even dreamt of being the SLPP’s presidential candidate in 2019. (Nimal Siripala de Silva was appointed the Leader of the Opposition after the 2015 regime change.)
If Weerawansa is telling us the truth, then the question is why Basil tried to be the Opposition Leader. Was it to protect himself against attacks he anticipated from his political enemies in the yahapalana government? Or, did he seek to use that post as a stepping stone to the presidency, the way his elder brother Mahinda had done previously. Does he still have presidential ambitions, and is it why he wants the SLPP, which he has a firm grip on, to contest future elections alone? Basil has not yet responded to allegations Weerawansa and Gammanpila have levelled against him, and therefore it may not be fair to rush to conclusions, but one thing is clear; the government’s internal dispute is essentially political and personal, too, some extent, and certainly not ideological, contrary to the SLPP dissidents’ claim.
Power and ambition
Power and ambition are conjoined twins. Hence group dynamics are always problematic in politics where the survival of a government depends on the ability of its leader to reconcile competing interests of ambitious politicians. If he or she fails in this task, internal disputes crop up, threatening the unity and stability of the government, and in some cases leading to even debilitating splits. We have seen this happen to some governments since Independence, the first instance being the late S. W. R. D. Bandaranaike’s exit from the UNP in 1951 to form the SLFP. The main reason for his breakaway was his realization that he would not be able to become the Prime Minister as the then Prime Minister D. Senanayake’s son Dudley was being groomed for the post.
The unity of the Bandaranaike family was shattered owing to the political ambitions of two of its members—Chandrika, and Anura, who even took his mother, Sirima, to courts over a party dispute. Only the late J. R. Jayewardene managed to control his party, but the method he adopted for that purpose was deplorable; he forcibly collected undated resignation letters from his MPs. After his retirement, a clash between his successor, President Ranasinghe Premadasa, and some UNP seniors such as Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamini Dissanayake led to a split in the party over an abortive impeachment bid.
President Chandrika Kumaratunga government also experienced internal problems because the then Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa had presidential ambitions, but they did not lead to a split because of the constitutionally prescribed two-term limit, which made President Kumaratunga retire after serving her second term. It was also political ambitions of some ministers that led to the collapse of President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government; having failed to secure the premiership, the then Minister Maithripala Sirisena, broke away and successfully contested the 2015 presidential election. President Sirisena was also troubled by an intra-coalition conflict and he even tried to sack the UNF government, albeit in vain. Now, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government is facing internal problems and has had to sack ministers in a bid to overcome them.
Future of the SLPP government
What is unfolding on the political front has a sense of déjà vu about it. An oppositional group has emerged from within the government ranks, the way a group of dissident MPs of the UPFA, which formed a national government with the UNP-led UNF (2015-2018) opted to remain independent as the Joint Opposition (JO) under Mahinda Rajapaksa’s leadership, as they were at loggerheads with President Sirisena. The JO expanded itself as the SLPP subsequently.
Today, ironically, some MPs of the SLPP are going to close ranks with former President Sirisena’s leadership to all intents and purposes! It was General Secretary of the SLFP Dayasiri Jayasekera who used to attend the meetings of the SLPP dissidents, initially, and Sirisena avoided active involvement in their activities, but he chose to attend the recent launch of their alternative proposals for economic recovery. He is thought to have thus demonstrated his willingness to lead the SLPP dissidents and organize them under the SLFP banner to contest elections in the future. He is adept at harnessing dissension to further his political interests; that is what he did in 2014, when he enlisted the support of more than a dozen MPs of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government, including ministers, to win the presidency.
Sirisena has waited patiently since late 2018, when he joined forces with the Rajapaksas, having realized that he could not beat them. He is never tired of waiting, and patience is one of his traits. It was for a purpose that he did not accept any ministerial post in the SLPP government. He wanted to remain independent of the government while being part of it, paradoxical as it may sound. His strategy seems to have worked; he would have had to share the blame for the government’s commissions and omissions if he had been a member of the SLPP Cabinet, and would have become unpopular as a result. At time of writing, he was expected to present to President Rajapaksa some proposals, at a meeting scheduled to be held on Tuesday (March 08), revealing how the SLFP thinks the current multiple crises could be resolved. Thus, he will be able to bolster the SLFP’s claim that it cannot be held responsible for the mess the country is in.
Sirisena has been obviously aiming high and working according to a well-thought-out plan; he wants to be the President again.
Many SLPP supporters are now disillusioned with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s leadership owing to the manner in which his government is bungling things, and the SLPP is treating its coalition partners. The SJB has not been able to make the most of the situation, much less offer itself as an alternative to the present government. There is also dissension in the SJB because some of its MPs are resentful that their leader Sajith Premadasa’s inner circle and his wife are interfering with party affairs too much.
The JVP is attacking the government much to the glee of the resentful public, but it cannot form a government on its own, and therefore those who desire a regime change may not want to vote for it however much they may endorse its policies. This is the reality in electoral politics in Sri Lanka. Sound policies alone do not help political parties win elections. Disillusioned SLPP supporters who do not want to vote for either the UNP or the JVP or any other party/group at the next presidential election will look for an alternative to the SLPP. Sirisena seems to think the SLFP fits the bill.
The next presidential election is likely to be a four-cornered battle with incumbent President Rajapaksa, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, Champika Ranawaka of the 43 Brigade fame, and former President Sirisena in the fray.
If Mahinda Rajapaksa retires from active politics before the next presidential or parliamentary election, the SLPP will become even more chaotic and its support base will erode further, making it an uphill task for other Rajapaksas to shore it up under their own steam. This may be the situation Sirisena is looking forward to.
The Rajapaksas may try to prevent Sirisena from standing for President again by having criminal proceedings instituted against him over the Easter Sunday bombings in keeping with the recommendations of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry that probed the terror attacks, but such action taken belatedly, will be widely seen as part of a political witch-hunt, and will not be effective at least politically and electorally.
