By Vishvanath
The dynamics of the ongoing presidential race are undergoing radical changes with new political alliances
emerging and intra party rivalries and conflicts coming into the open. Political leaders have had to adapt their
strategies accordingly.
It is a mistake for anyone to underestimate his or her adversaries, especially in war and politics. Sun Tzu has
said in The Art of War: ‘If you know your enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred
battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know
neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” Sri Lankan politicians seldom heed such wise
counsel.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe may have thought, until a few weeks ago, that he would be able to bend
the SLPP to his will by giving it a choice between backing him in the presidential race and facing mass defections
from its ranks to the UNP. In fact, he won over more than a dozen SLPP stalwarts including ministers. But he
apparently underestimated the SLPP’s strength and strategic thinking. He has now had to adopt a conciliatory
approach in a bid to secure the SLPP’s support for his presidential candidacy.
Wickremesinghe made a similar mistake after the fall of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government in 2015. He
thought it would be the end of the Rajapaksa rule. But much to his surprise, the SLFP rump led by the Rajapaksa
family made a comeback sooner than expected and went on to form the SLPP, which won the last three elections
with huge majorities before ruining things for itself big time.
Aragalaya and its aftermath
The SLPP government under President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s stewardship underestimated the strengths of
its political enemies and the Aragalaya protest movement, which upended Sri Lankan politics and disrupted the
Rajapaksa rule. The Aragalaya activists also did not assess the SLFPP properly and never bargained for a situation
where the Rajapaksa family would retain its hold on power by making a tactical retreat and elevating UNP leader
Ranil Wickremesinghe as the President, and MEP leader Dinesh Gunawardena as the Prime Minister.
Both Aragalaya protesters and the Rajapaksa family underestimated Wickremesinghe, who not only
crushed the protest movement but also brought about a semblance of economic stability, revitalized the UNP to a
considerable extent and secured a bridgehead in national politics to launch his presidential election campaign.
The Aragalaya activists are trying to regain vitality through various gimmicks, which have failed to mobilize the
public, and the SLPP is not in a position to decide whether to contest the next presidential election.
‘Victory through Unity’
Wickremesinghe’s presidential election campaign got underway in earnest with the launch of a rally,
organized by Minister Kanchana Wijesekera under the theme, “Victory through Unity, and held in Matara on June
30, with the participation of some prominent SLPP parliamentary group members including ministers Prasanna
Ranatunga, Ali Sabry and Ramesh Pathirana, Deputy Speaker Ajith Rajapakse, State Ministers Rohana Dissanayake,
Kanaka Herath and Wijitha Berugoda, and MPs Mahindananda Aluthgamage and Premanath C. Dolawatte. It was
widely thought at the time that the SLPP would be left with no alternative but to hitch its wagon to the UNP on the
President’s terms. In fact, that was what Minister Wijesekera implied in his speech. He expressed confidence that
the entire SLPP would throw its weight behind President Wickremesinghe. But the SLPP has been practicing
brinkmanship and upping the ante by using business tycoon and presidential aspirant, Dhammika Perera, MP, as a
bargaining chip.
Rumors as a political tool
The SLPP has been floating rumors through the likes of former ambassador Udayanga Weeratunga, who is
very close to Basil Rajapaksa, that it will field Perera as its presidential candidate, and some SLPP stalwarts, such as
MP Tissa Kuttiarachi, have been tearing into President Wickremesinghe. They would not have been doing so
unbeknownst to the SLPP leadership. They are demanding that the candidate it fields or supports undertake to
adopt Mahinda Chinthanaya or the core ideology of the SLPP.
Addressing an SLPP rally in Divulapitiya the other day Kuttiarachchi took swipes at the three main
presidential hopefuls, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, JVP/NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and
President Wickremesinghe in that order; he said the SLPP would have nothing to do with big talkers and ‘beggars’
who sponged off their party supporters, and those who sold ports and other state assets. He was obviously
speaking for the SLPP leaders, especially Namal Rajapkasa, who is being groomed for the party leadership. Namal
has been openly critical of President Wickremesinghe, who, he has said, is a 50% success and 50% failure,
whatever that means.
President’s Kandy rally
Dissident SLPP MP Lohan Ratwatte, addressing President Wickremesinghe’s election rally in Kandy on
Sunday claimed that no presidential candidate could win without the blessings of former President Mahinda
Rajapaksa and his party, the SLPP. He said it was with Mahinda’s permission that the SLPP MPs were attending that
event.
President Wickremesinghe’s speech in Kandy was devoid of usual rhetoric. Claiming that he had followed
the late President J. R. Jayewardene’s advice that opportunity to gain must be grabbed with both hands, he
stressed the importance of the SLPP’s support, and called for a conciliatory approach to solving the country’s
problems and achieving national progress. The change in the tone of not only the President but also that of every
other speaker indicated that they had realized the need to tread cautiously in securing the SLPP’s support.
There is no such thing as generosity or altruism or gratitude in power politics, where deals are cut on the
basis of self-interest and expediency. So, the SLPP has been trying to strike a deal that is beneficial. It is likely to
demand the premiership in addition to several key ministerial positions in a future government under
Wickremesinghe as conditions for extending its support.
Whether the SLPP’s support for Wickremesinghe’s presidential election campaign will prove
counterproductive, given the unpopularity of the former leaders, remains to be seen. It is also being argued in
some quarters that a coming together between the UNP and the SLPP in the presidential race will alienate the
minorities, who are not well-disposed towards the Rajapaksas; minority votes will be of crucial importance in a
closely contested election. In fact, it would have been far more advantageous to the President if he had been able
to secure the SLPP’s votes without entering into a formal pact with the Rajapaksas, as advocated by Minister
Ranatunga and other SLPP dissidents, who have angered Chief Strategist of the SLPP Basil with that proposal. But
the UNP, with a diminished support base, is desperate for votes. The SJB, which ate into the UNP’s votes, is
conducting an effective election campaign.
The next few days are likely to witness intense bargaining between President Wickremesinghe and the SLPP
leaders, who are aware that unless they get the maximum out of a pact with the UNP, its chances of making a
comeback in the foreseeable future will be remote, and their hold on the party will also be in jeopardy.
The success of Wickremesinghe’s presidential bid hinges on the UNP’s ability to navigate issues related to
the electoral alliance in the making. The President will have to make a lot of concessions to secure the SLPP’s
backing while doing everything in his power to retain the support of ethno-religious minorities.
