SLPP trusts Ranil but wants his hands tied

The Supreme Court has commenced hearing several petitions against the 22nd constitutional amendment Bill presented to the parliament on August 10. It is expected to convey its decision to the Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena. One of the main arguments against the proposed amendment is that some of its provisions are not consistent with the Constitution, and therefore they will have to be endorsed by the people directly at a referendum besides being passed by the parliament with a two-thirds majority for them to become law. Some of the arguments put forth in support of this view are compelling, but counterarguments are to be presented soon.

While the 22^nd Amendment is undergoing judicial scrutiny, the SLPP is reported to be trying to have the presidential power as regards the dissolution of the parliament curtailed. The proposed amendment seeks to enable the President to dissolve the parliament two and a half years after the election of a government. If is passed, then President Ranil Wickremesinghe will be in a position to dissolve the parliament in March 2023. The SLPP is said to be trying to prevent the President from doing so until the government has completed four and a half years of its term. The SLPP has made an about-turn on this issue since the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Lack of trust

It is said that two dogs at the same bone seldom agree. Such is the greed of not only animals but also humans seeking to gain and retain power. In politics, there is no such thing as consensual power sharing, which is advocated as a way out of conflicts. Individuals, groups or political parties may agree to share power, but they do not stop vying for dominance thereafter. This is why coalition governments are prone to internecine battles, and even fall apart.

Circumstances compelled the SLPP, the principal constituent of the ruling coalition, and the UNP to opt for a political marriage. The former faced the prospect of losing power owing to mass uprisings, and the latter had no other way of savoring power, having been reduced to a single seat in the parliament. So, they realized that it was in their interest to come together.

UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe became the choice of the Rajapaksa family for the presidency not because it is fond of him but because it did not want any SLPP politician to secure that post lest he or she should emerge stronger than its members and take over the party. Everything seems to have gelled for the Rajapaksa-Wickremesinghe administration so far, but media reports suggest that reality is otherwise.

Politics is characterized by distrust. Politicians do not trust each other even if they happen to be members of the same family. The Rajapaksas are not so naïve as to repose their trust in President Wickremesinghe blindly and keep all their political eggs in his basket. They seem to have realized the need to have a contingency plan ready in case of their relations turning sour.

Cold war

The President and the ruling party get on well only when the former leads the latter. Otherwise, they are at loggerheads, trying to undermine each other, at the expense of the country’s political stability. The remedy introduced by the original 1978 Constitution to this problem was to empower the President to dissolve Parliament one year after the formation of a government. The 19^th Amendment reduced this executive power by extending the constitutionally stipulated period from one year to four and a half years, thus strengthening the position of the legislature. The 20^th Amendment reduced it to two and a half years, and the 22^nd Amendment has retained this provision, which the SLPP wants revised.

The SLPP leaders want to keep President Wickremesinghe and the UNP on a right leash, but the President can always leverage the above-mentioned constitutional provision, which enables him to dissolve the parliament come next March, and turn the tables on the SLPP, if he so desires, as things stand. This is a worrisome proposition for the SLPP, which is not ready for an election anytime soon.

President Wickremesinghe is making the most of his unexpected rise to the presidency to rebuild his image and revitalize the UNP. The SLPP has enough numbers in the parliament to retain a simple majority, but its popularity has plummeted, and there is no way it can shore up its image and recover lost ground within months, or even a couple of years. Street protests have lost intensity, but the public has not simmered down, and there is likely to be a massive protest vote against the SLPP in the event of a snap general election. It is only natural that the SLPP does not want the parliament dissolved earlier.

SLPP’s woes

The SLPP is also facing the prospect of a crippling split. A group of its MPs led by Dullas Alahapperuma, who vied for the presidency in the parliament unsuccessfully, last month, is planning to form a new party to contest future elections, and other dissident government MPs are also likely to break ranks with the SLPP sooner than expected. Breakaways will further debilitate the SLPP.

A snap general election, however, will benefit the JVP, the SJB and the UNP. The JVP and the SJB are already demanding an election, and they are likely to step up their campaign for the dissolution of the parliament in time to come. The UNP has not revealed its position on the issue, but is obviously preparing itself for an election. It cannot be unaware that the Ranil magic will not last long, and the anti-incumbency factor usually sets in with public opinion turning against those in power with the passage of time. It has to make hay while the sun shines, but cannot afford to show its hand, and thereby antagonize the SLPP, upon which it is dependent to savor power. It is treading cautiously.

In 2020, the SLPP MPs voted for the 20^th Amendment, endorsing the constitutional provision that empowers the President to dissolve the parliament after the expiration of two and a half years of its term. Thus, they helped do away with the constitutional restriction that the 19^th Amendment placed on the President, preventing him from sacking a government until four and a half years of its term has elapsed. They are now trying to undo what they did in 2020 by restoring the above-mentioned provision in the 19^th Amendment. They have proved once again that they act out of expediency rather than principle. Likewise, those who vehemently opposed the presidential power to sack a government according to his or her whims and fancies are now singing a different tune; they want that power restored because they are desirous of seeing an end to the SLPP government, which they detest. So much for their concern for checks and balances.