SLPP’s show of strength a damp squib?

The beleaguered SLPP has sought to have the people believe that it has come in from the cold. It embarked on a reorganization campaign by holding a meeting in Kalutara over the weekend under the leadership of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. It has claimed that the inaugural event was a huge success, but political observers are convinced otherwise; they argue that the ruling party is not in a position to hold a political rally similar to the ones it used to conduct before the onset of the present economic crisis and the attendant trouble on the political front.  

Timing is of the essence in making political moves. Both haste and procrastination could ruin one’s chances of success in political ventures. Mahinda Rajapaksa lost the presidency in 2015 mainly because he, in his wisdom, advanced a presidential election; he did so without heeding some of his coalition partners’ advice that he had to pull his socks up, sort out people’s economic problems and gauge public opinion before taking a big gamble. His hasty action cost him dear politically.

It was a mistake for Gotabaya Rajapaksa to announce his decision to run for President in the aftermath of the Easter Sunday bombing; the timing of his announcement has given rise to various conspiracy theories. He should also have trodden cautiously as regards his fertilizer experiment, which led to disaster because of his haste. The country is facing an economic crisis because his government did not seek IMF assistance in time and dillydallied.

The Yahapalana government invited disaster by delaying the Provincial Council (PC) elections in 2017 and thereby causing public anger to well up. It would not have been able to win the PC elections even if they had been held on schedule, but the electoral setback would have been less severe, and perhaps it would have had ample time to work on its mistakes, improve its performance and recover lost ground in time for the Presidential election in 2019.

All is not quite on the political front yet, and the SLPP should have lain low until people simmered down without launching its reorganizing bid. The prospect of the delayed local government elections being held latest by March 2023 is thought to have prompted the SLPP to launch a campaign to reorganize itself. But President Ranil Wickremesinghe stands accused of trying to postpone the local government elections further by appointing a parliamentary select committee to introduce electoral reforms. Neither the SLPP nor the UNP is ready for an election. Most of all, other political parties have not even thought of launching election campaigns. So, the SLPP’s claim that it is limbering up for an election campaign is to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Why didn’t the SLPP wait for its National Organizer and Chief Strategist Basil Rajapaksa’s return from the US to launch its reorganization campaign? Most of the speakers at the Kalutara meeting said they would ‘stand’ again with Mahinda. Is it that they are trying to repeat what they did successfully after the 2015 regime change? They marketed Mahinda’s popularity quite effectively while Basil was maintaining a low profile and organizing the SLPP. But there has been a difference this time around. Mahinda was hugely popular at that time; not even his defeat at the 2015 presidential election diminished his popularity. Basil drew flak and had various allegations being levelled against him, but there was no wave of public anger against him. Most of all, the public perception was that the country had done better under the Mahinda Rajapaksa government than during the Yahapalana administration, which failed to live up to people’s expectations. After the Easter Sunday attacks, national security, which was considered the Rajapakas’ long suit, was thrust to the centre stage again.

The situation is different today. Mahinda has lost his magic, and the likes of Rohitha Abeygunawardena, who organized the SLPP’s Kalutara meeting, have incurred the wrath of the public. Gotabaya Rajapaksa failed and threw in his towel. Basil has resigned from Parliament. The country is facing an unprecedented economic crisis and people are suffering as never before. The SLPP leadership could not have been unaware of this ground reality. If so, why did it decide to launch a series of meetings?

Ranil consolidating his position

President Ranil Wickremesinghe is apparently playing his cards well. There is only a single UNP MP, and Wickremesinghe is solely dependent on the SLPP parliamentary group, but he seems to be consolidating his position. It was not out of any love for him that the Rajapaksas made him the President; they wanted someone who would not pose a threat to their long-term interests to act as a placeholder until the crisis blew over. But the President seems to be having other plans. He can use his position to boost his bargaining power, the way Maithripala Sirisena did after winning the presidency with the help of the UNP.

The UNP and former President Chandrika Kumaratunga handpicked Maithripala Sirisena as the common presidential candidate to challenge Mahinda Rajapaksa in the presidential race in 2015 because they considered him malleable enough to do their bidding in case of his victory. The Rajapaksas were controlling the SLFP, at the time, and it was thought that Sirisena would be dependent entirely on the UNP-led UNF for political survival and therefore would have to do as UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and Kumaratunga said. The UNP’s plan was to reduce the executive powers of President Sirisena and strengthen the position of the Prime Minister so that its leader Wickremesinghe would become the de facto head of state. But Sirisena made a surprising move after winning the presidential election in January 2015. He grabbed the leadership of the SLFP, thereby lessening his dependence on the UNP. He became increasingly assertive and even clashed with the UNP and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, later on, rendering the Yahapalana administration dysfunctional.

 President Wickremesinghe’s plan was to win over some SJB MPs so that his bargaining power would increase. About 10 to 15 Opposition MPs were expected to join him, but he succeeded in enlisting the support of only two SJB MPs, Manusha Nanayakkara and Harin Fernando. (Some others supported him on the sly when the parliament elected the President in July.) He may not be able to make any more SJB MPs switch their allegiance to him to strengthen his hand, but the presidential power to dissolve the parliament after the completion of two and a half years of its term will stand him in good stead; it will strengthen his position because the SLPP MPs do not want to face an election. The President will be constitutionally empowered to dissolve the parliament come February 2023. President Sirisena could not do so owing to the 19^th Amendment to the Constitution.

Cold war in govt.

The only way the SLPP could think of preventing President Wickremesinghe from trying to break free from its clutches by leveraging his power to dissolve the parliament is to amend the Constitution. Hence its efforts to change the 22^nd Amendment to the Constitution Bill to restore a section of the 19^th Amendment to prevent the President from dissolving the parliament until February 2025. There is constitutional provision for changing the Bill at the committee stage, but the government is without a two-thirds majority to have it ratified. Therefore, the odds are that the President will be able to dissolve the parliament anytime after February 2023, if he so desires, and this is a worrisome proposition for the SLPP.

Another factor that has strengthened the President’s position, albeit indirectly, is the debilitation of the SLPP. Public anger is rising due to worsening economic conditions, and there is no way the SLPP could shore up its crumbling image by making good on its pledges and granting the people some relief. The new tax system to be implemented next year will incense the public further. Given these political exigencies, the SLPP may have thought of putting on a show of strength for the consumption of its political opponents, the general public and President Wickremesinghe. But whether it will succeed in its endeavor remains to be seen.