By Kassapa
Arguably Sri Lanka’s most eagerly awaited presidential election-and potentially its last- reaches a climax on Saturday when the country goes to the polls in which the contest is realistically between President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Opposition Leader and Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) candidate Sajith Premadasa and Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
Namal Rajapaksa, representing the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), still the ruling party in the country, is also contesting but that is with the intention of announcing himself as the next in line for the party’s leadership rather than in the hope of winning the election. Nevertheless, he will have an impact on the outcome by reducing the votes polled by Wickremesinghe to some extent.
Current indications are that Dissanayake is the frontrunner, Premadasa is in second place but the gap between him and Wickremesinghe is fast narrowing. There has been plenty of speculation as to whether this election will be the first which will result in a count of voters’ second preferences.
Whatever the final outcome, there will be political carnage following the election that will have a significant effect on the next poll that must invariably follow, the general election. There is bound to be a major realignment of political forces, the likes of which the country has never seen before.
A defeat for Wickremesinghe could, and should, spell the end of his political career. That said, the same fallout was predicted when the United National Party (UNP) was wiped out at the 2020 general election. Left with only one National List parliamentary seat, it was kept vacant for ten months amidst speculation that Wickremesinghe would make way for a younger leader. The rest, as they say, is history.
If Wickremesinghe were to indeed step down, it would also trigger a succession struggle in the UNP which could destroy the already struggling Grand Old Party. In the fray are Ravi Karunanayake, Ruwan Wijewardene, Sagala Ratnayake and perhaps even Vajira Abeywardena and Harin Fernando.
What Wickremesinghe (and the UNP) must acknowledge is that he will be eighty years of age when the next major national elections are held after the general election and they will be better off resolving the succession now than then. Even in the highly unlikely event of Wickremesinghe winning this election, the succession stakes need to be ironed out if the UNP is to have any hope of survival.
The scenario in the SJB is no different. A defeat for Premadasa at the election could mark the end of his political journey as well. There are reportedly many SJB stalwarts who remain in the party only because they feel they have better prospects of re-election to the next Parliament from the SJB than the UNP because of the moribund state the latter is in.
However, if Premadasa does not win on Saturday, on the one hand some SJBers may opt to return to the UNP. On the other hand, there will also be pressure for Premadasa to step down from the party leadership as he would have then contested two presidential elections and lost. Again, waiting in the wings are many aspirants. Harsha De Silva, Champika Ranawaka and Dullas Alahapperuma will all fancy their chances of leading an opposition alliance in which the SJB is a partner.
If Premadasa does prevail on Saturday, there is a distinct possibility of him returning to the UNP at the expense of Wickremesinghe. This would be reminiscent of Gamini Dissanayake’s return to the UNP after Ranasinghe Premadasa’s assassination. There could be a rallying call for the UNP and the SJB to reunite and become one big family once again. Premadasa’s detractors in the UNP led by Ravi Karunanayake wouldn’t have much choice then and will settle to be in the Cabinet with him rather than sniping from the opposition.
Of course, there are two big ‘if’s in this scenario. The first is obviously whether Premadasa can win the election. The second is whether, even if he does, Wickremesinghe will allow him to return to his political ancestral home. It is well known within UNP and SJB circles that the clash between Premadasa and Wickremesinghe is a battle of two giant egos. It is more personal than political. This is why they couldn’t forget their differences and unite for this election. Sunday, when the election results trickle in, could be the day when the words of Thalatha Autokrale will come to haunt both Wickremesinghe and Premadasa: if they united, they could have won but if not, they are all committing political suicide.
Strong as they are today, it could the final roll of the dice for the JJB as well on Saturday. After decades of languishing on single digit percentage votes at the polls, events have conspired to bring the JJB and Dissanayake to the forefront of this election: the economic disaster and resultant uprising in 2020, Wickremesinghe teaming up with the SLPP instead of the SJB, the near elimination of the Rajapaksas and the SLPP from the equation, not to mention the splitting of the votes in the North and East among several candidates.
All these factors have worked to the advantage of Dissanayake. There is unlikely to be a similar set of circumstances stacked in favour of the JJB in the foreseeable future, if they are unable to make it over the line at this election. If such a failure does eventuate, it could also mark the end of the JJB and even the left-of-centre political movement in the country. As for Dissanayake, it could be the end of a long and tiring political journey.
Ironically, the only major party candidate who already knows what his fate is likely to be is Namal Rajapaksa. He is aware he will not win. If he secures half a million votes that will be sufficient for him to remain in Parliament, lead a small team of SLPP MPs after the next general election and lie in wait for Saturday’s victors to discredit themselves. At thirty-eight years of age, he has time on his side- even he gets to the top in twenty years, he will only be slightly older than what Premadasa is today!
Saturday therefore is crucial election not only for Sri Lanka but also for almost all of its leading politicians. For most of them, their time has finally come to leave the political arena, and they won’t be missed greatly either.
