By Vishvanath
SLPP National Organizer Namal Rajapaksa’s entry into the presidential fray has triggered a social media feeding frenzy, which, however, will fizzle out with the passage of time whenserious issues crop up and distract the public. JVP/NPP stalwart, K. D. Lalkantha, has created a real brouhaha by admitting in public that the JVP tried to lead the Aragalaya protesters to the parliament in July 2022, but its attempt failed as other protest leaders were not supportive of it. He has overshadowed Namal.
Battle lines in the presidential contest have emerged, with all prominent contenders having thrown their hats into the ring, the latest being Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka, but the process of political forces realigning is far from over; it is making the dynamics of the forthcoming election even more competitive.
The SLPP MPs continue to defect, pledging their support for President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Former Minister Pavithra Wanniarachchi, who used to worship SLPP Leader and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa in public, closed ranks with President Ranil Wickremesinghe, on Thursday, much to the surprise and consternation of the Rajapaksa family. Prominent SLPP dissidents including Prof. G. L. Peiris, who was the SLPP Chairman, and former Minister Dullas Alahapperuma have sided with Opposition and SJB leader Sajith Premadasa.
Rishard Bathiudeen’s All Ceylon Makkal Congress is straddling the fence. It is expected emulate Rauff Hakeem’sSLMC, which is supporting Premadasa. But nothing is said to be so certain as the unexpected in politics. Whoever would have expected SLPP MP and National Convener Rohitha Abeygunawardena and Wanniarachchi to pledge their support for Wickremesinghe? The TNA, which is capable of delivering a sizeable block vote to a presidential candidate of its choice, has also not decided whom to support. Some Tamil political parties have decided to field a common Tamil presidential candidate.The TNA has taken exception to that move, claiming that it is detrimental to the interests of the Tamil community.
The Election Commission announced on Saturday (August 10) that there would be about 35 candidates at the next presidential election. The vast majority of them will be also-rans; some of them are proxies of the main candidates. President Wickremesinghe, Opposition Leader Premadasa and JVP/NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake are considered frontrunners. But other candidates such as Wijeyadasa Rajapaksa, backed by former President Maithripala Sirisena, Field Marshal Fonseka and SLPP National Organizer Namal Rajapaksa are likely to intensify the competitiveness of the election in such a way that no other candidate will be able to secure 50% plus one vote towin the presidency straightaway.
It is against this backdrop that the SLPP’s decision to field Namal as its presidential candidate should be viewed. The nationalistic forces that the Rajapaksa family mobilized to win past elections are without an alternative leadership. They may not be as strong as they used to be, but they are still a force to be reckoned with, and it will be a mistake for anyone to factor them out in strategizing an election campaign, presidential or otherwise.
It is believed that some of those who backed Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the last presidential election are now supportive ofother candidates, especially JVP/NPP leader Dissanayake, but they are floating voters and not staunch nationalists who constitute the core of the Rajapaksas’ support base. In a close contest, every single vote counts, and this may be why President Wickremesinghe did his best to secure the support of the Rajapaksa family, albeit in vain. He fell out with the SLPP leadership by refusing to accede to Basil Rajapaksa’s demand that a general election be held before the next presidential contest, and some of the Rajapaksa loyalists be made Cabinet ministers.
Some political commentators have claimed that the last-minute pullout of business tycoon, Dhammika Perera, who was expected to the SLPP’s presidential candidate, was due to pressure from the rivals of the SLPP; according to them, on Tuesday evening, Perera informed the SLPP, which had made all preparations for the announcement of his candidacy the following day at the SLPP party office, that he would not be able to contest due to personal reasons; the SLPP was left without a presidential candidate as Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena also turned down its invitation, and the SLPP leaders finally decided to field Namal as their presidential candidate. We are not in a position to vouch for the veracity of the aforesaid claims, but the fact remains that Perera pulled out at the eleventh hour, and the SLPP had to field Namal for want of a better alternative.
By no stretch of the imagination can Namal be expected two emerge the winner in the upcoming presidential election, and the Rajapaksa family cannot be so naïve as to think he will be able to secure the presidency. But his participation in the presidential contest will make it difficult for the dissident SLPP MPs to dip into the party’s vote bank.
President Wickremesinghe’s efforts to turn the UNP around during the past two years did not reach fruition. The UNP could poll only 249,435 votes (2.15%) as opposed to the NPP’s 445,958 votes (3.84%) at the last general election in 2020. It wasleft with only a single Nationalist post, and its unpopular seniors who lost their seats are still in the party’s key positions. No wonder Wickremesinghe could not rebuild the UNP despite wielding state power. This may also be a reason why Wickremesinghe opted to contest the upcoming presidential election as an independent candidate although he says he has done so solely to enable all those across the political spectrum to support his cause regardless of their differences. His propagandists claim that about 92 SLPP MPs have sided with him, but the question is whether they will be able to deliver enough votes from the SLPP to him vis-à-vis the participation of a prominent member of the Rajapaksa family in the contest.
It is being argued in some quarters that Namal is a spoiler candidate, but it is not to draw votes away from any other candidate that the SLPP has fielded him. Therefore, he cannot be considered a spoiler candidate though he will cause a split in the votes which the dissident SLPP MPs are trying to deliver to President Wickremesinghe. His real mission is to prevent a further erosion of the SLPP’s support base and help the Rajapaksa family retain its hold on the party leadership.
Unpopular and electorally and political weak as the Rajapaksas may be, they are seasoned politicians who know that the world is not going to end after the upcoming presidential election, and they will get an opportunity to make a comeback someday. They want to retain the party leadership. They are apparently planning to batten down hatches and wait for the current political storm to pass.
