By Kassapa
The corridors of power are buzzing with the news of talks between the two so-called main ‘right-of-centre’ political parties, the United National Party (UNP) and the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), to explore the prospect of reconciliation.
At the time of writing, there is agreement only on one issue: to talk to each other. Negligible as this may seem, it is still progress. The talks have the blessings of the working committees of both parties.
There is a sense that this attempt is genuine, compared to previous efforts of a similar nature. That is due to two reasons. Firstly, local government elections are looming, possibly in less than three months. If the UNP and the SJB contest separately, both parties will be doomed to defeat.
Secondly, a key personality in this endeavour is Thalatha Atukorale, a SJB parliamentarian until August (when she resigned her seat in Parliament) and now the new General Secretary of the UNP. Atukorale’s personal relations with almost all members of the SJB are such that she is able to reach out to them for a discussion.
If all that augurs well, there are still many issues to resolve. Foremost is the question, what exactly is the nature of the proposed partnership? This can range from a loose alliance for the specific purpose of contesting local government elections (which will address the immediate crisis) to forming a more long-term alliance in which both the UNP and the SJB are partners of equal standing and then to the even more optimistic possibility of reuniting as one, single party. All these options will be on the table for discussion.
Obstacles to this process are many. Perhaps the most striking among them is how both the UNP and the SJB view themselves as the relatively superior entity. The UNP, especially its leadership, still sees itself as the ‘Grand Old Party’ despite its current dilapidated and moribund state, because it owns the coveted ‘elephant’ symbol and is a party which governed the country many times. It views the SJB as a poor relation because of its short history.
The SJB leadership is not different. It feels it is the superior party because of its strength in the past two Parliaments. Currently it has 40 MPs to the UNP’s one and that too on the National List. It believes that the UNP’s base vote of about 20 per cent accrued to the SJB when the vast majority of UNPers broke away from the party to form the party in 2020, a claim that appears to be validated by election results.
Therefore, it should be negotiating from a position of strength, some SJB leaders believe. For instance, these leaders will argue that any ‘reunification’ with the UNP should take the form of the UNP becoming part and parcel of the SJB rather than the SJB coalescing with the UNP.
Then, there is the issue of the ‘unwanted baggage’ that the UNP carries. When Ranil Wickremesinghe was President, he governed with ministers who were originally from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). When it came to the issue supporting Wickremesinghe or Namal Rajapaksa at the presidential election, many of them chose to endorse Wickremesinghe. This group has now been disowned by the SLPP, have been attending UNP gatherings and have almost become a faction within that party. The likes of Kanchana Wijesekera, Shehan Semasinghe and Pramitha Bandara Tennakoon are examples.
The SJB is adamant that they would not want these SLPP ‘imports’ in any alliance that they are part of. The SJB has been strident in their criticism of this group in the last Parliament and partnering with them now will seriously erode their credibility, some SJB MPs feel. This is likely to be another obstacle to the parties working together.
There is also a group of MPs within the SJB who strongly believe that joining forces with the UNP will only hinder their career prospects and gain nothing for the party. They also have significant concerns about the UNP leadership. This small but influential group in the SJB have made their concerns known and do not favour any link up with the UNP. Already, Hirunika Premachandra has been outspoken in this regard and said she would remain with the SJB even if it is reduced to a few members.
Over and above all this, the most significant issue at stake is the leadership of any potential alliance or partnership. Neither Wickremesinghe nor Premadasa have given the slightest indication that they will step down in favour of the other and this remains arguably the biggest stumbling block to reconciliation.
Realistically, Wickremesinghe is seventy-five years of age now and will be eighty years old when the next national elections are due. So, there were expectations that he would be willing to make the UNP great again by making way for Premadasa, just as much as his uncle J.R. Jayewardene made way for Sajith Premadasa’s father Ranasinghe Premadasa. However, that is not the case, more so because the small circle Wickremesinghe loyalists fear for their political future if Premadasa takes over the leadership.
This is likely to inevitably lead to discussions about joint leadership and leadership councils all of which sound well on paper but are not practical when it needs to be implemented. Besides, this is a time when Premadasa’s leadership skills are being openly questioned in the SJB. At the last meeting of the party’s working committee he was reportedly asked why the committee had not met for ten months and on what basis he authorised the party to enter into agreements with partner parties which cost the SJB three national list seats. With all this going on, he wouldn’t want to dilute his authority further by being a second-in-command or a joint leader.
Therefore, there are many reservations from the SJB, less so from the UNP. So, will the twain ever meet? A loose alliance for the local government elections is a maybe but for a more enduring longer-term partnership, no, not now anyway.
