The beleaguered government seems to be working really hard to consolidate its hold on power, having made a tactical retreat—the resignation of the Cabinet—owing to the Mirihana mayhem (31 March), and subsequent waves of anti-government protests. There has been no let-up in countrywide agitations although protesters are no longer as aggressive as they were at the beginning.
The Galle Face protest entered the seventh day on Friday(14). It has remained peaceful and continues to attract a lot of well-wishers. All the signs are that it will not end anytime soon.
The government, which is resorting to political maneuvering to retain power in the face of widespread protests, does not seem to have factored in growing public support for the protesters, and public resentment at the ruling party leaders. It seems to believe that it could weather the current political storm if it manages to retain a working majority in the parliament.
The PM’s call
Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has offered to negotiate with the youth protesting at the Galle Face Green and requested them to nominate their representatives for talks with him, but the latter has spurned his offer contemptuously, saying that they want the President and the entire government to step down, and will not settle for less.
The government is apparently laboring under the misconception that it may be able to defuse tension on the political front by negotiating with the youth at the Galle Face Green alone. These protesters are only a section of the incensed public. There is the likelihood of the ongoing protests leading to a general strike.
The government has not been able to do anything to assuage public anger. Fuel was not available during the Sinhala and Tamil New Year in all parts of the country, and the people think the government has played a trick on them by supplying power uninterruptedly for three days, at the expense of fuel for transport purposes. Whether the government is as guilty as charged one may not know, but non-availability of fuel ruined New Year for most people, and made the public more resentful despite the continuous power supply.
The rationing of fuel will further exasperate the public, especially trishaw drivers.
Govt. playing waiting game
That the government has not given up the fight and is not willing to meet protesters’ demand for an all-party interim set-up despite President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s call to that effect, has become evident from the way it is striving to engineer crossovers from the Opposition. Now that the SLFP has opted to function as an independent group together with other SLPP dissidents, in the House, the government does not want to leave anything to chance.
The ruling SLPP has already lost about 42 of its MPs to the rebel group. It had 145 MPs after the 2020 general election, and it managed to increase that number to 156 with the help of some defectors. It secured 156 votes for the 20th Amendment.
If not for the crossovers from the Opposition, the government would have been left with only 103 MPs by now, but it claims to have 117 MPs on its side despite defections from its ranks. The Surcharge Tax Bill could have been used to put the SLPP’s claim to the test, recently, but the Opposition, in its wisdom, did not ask for a division, and the Bill was passed unanimously.
The Opposition seems confident that it could secure the passage of its no-faith motion to be moved against the government. But the SLPP rebel group has said it will not support it; the dissident MPs want an interim administration set up instead of an election at this juncture. However, it will be interesting to see how many votes the government will be able to muster without its rebel MPs. The no-confidence motion will reveal its real strength.
National Freedom Front (NFF) leader Wimal Weerawansa has condemned the government’s attempts to lure the rebel MPs into crossing over. He has told the media that three persons close to the SLPP leadership met one of his MPs at 2.00 am recently, and offered money and a ministerial post in a bid to make him switch allegiance to the Rajapaksa camp.
The SLFP has already lost one of its MPs to the government. MP Shantha Bandara was sworn in as a state minister on Wednesday (13). The SLPP rebels, representing 11 constituents, boycotted a meeting with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in protest. SLFP General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera, MP, has said his party will sack MP Bandara. He insists that the government has only 108 MPs on its side in the 225-member parliament, and is therefore desperate for a working majority. The SLPP dissidents would put paid to its efforts, Jayasekera has said. The veracity or otherwise of his claim remains to be seen.
Will history repeat itself?
It is unlikely that the government will be able to raise its numbers significantly amidst the present political turmoil, which has resulted in public protests and even mob attacks on government MPs’ houses. If the SLPP rebel group refrains from voting when the motion is put to the vote, the government may be able to defeat even if it does not have 113 seats; only a majority of those present will be required either to pass or to defeat the motion. But if the government fails to prove that it has 113 seats or more, it will be at the mercy of its rebel MPs for survival. This seems to be the dissident SLPP MPs’ strategy. A similar fate befell the Chandrika Kumaratunga government in 2001 due to mass crossovers. It lost a working majority and the JVP offered to prop it up, provided it adopted some progressive measures to strengthen democracy—and that arrangement came to be known as pariwasa anduwa (‘probationary’ government).
One of the most progressive laws this country has seen—the 17th Amendment—was introduced under the cornered Kumaratunga administration, which however fell a few months later. This particular amendment, which however was not without some flaws, was aimed at helping depoliticize the vital state institutions such as the state service. Unfortunately, the Mahinda Rajapaksa government introduced the 18th Amendment, which scrapped it. The 19th Amendment, passed by the parliament in 2015, did away with the 18th Amendment, and contained some of the key features of the 17th Amendment, but 20th Amendment introduced by the present government deep-sixed it. The SLPP rebel group may be able to do to the current government what the JVP did to the Kumaratunga administration in 2001 in case the SLPP loses its majority in the House. Today, the President cannot immediately dissolve the parliament unlike in 2001, if the SLPP fails to retain 113 seats.
If the government cannot garner 113 votes in the parliament and has to agree to progressive reforms the SLPP dissidents and their Opposition counterparts are said to be contemplating, such as the abolition of the 20th Amendment and the reintroduction of the 19th Amendment with some changes, pressure in the polity may subside considerably; a let-up in political upheavals is likely to occur, helping the economic experts concentrate on the uphill task of reviving the economy and granting some relief to the public.
Crises and opportunities
Every crisis provides an opportunity. If the government, its political rivals, apolitical groups including members of the public, especially the youth, engaged in a continuous protest at the Galle Face Green in the face of inclement weather, act wisely, it will be possible for them to bring about progressive constitutional, political and economic to save this country from bankruptcy and make it a better place for everyone.
If the ruling party thinks that it will be able to wear down the protesters by playing for time, and do what it has been forced to stop, it is mistaken. The Opposition also should not make the mistake of thinking that the people have turned against only the government, and it will be able to win future elections. The entire political establishment has incurred the wrath of the people, and the protesting youth are asking all 225 MPs to go home, together with the President.
The members of the present parliament have to win back public sympathy, if they are to avert trouble, and the only way they could do so is to right the wrongs they, their political parties and their leaders have done all these decades, and make a serious effort to clean up the current mess.
