Trouble brewing again

The government has got tough with its rivals, who are regrouping in a bid to make an early comeback. The police descended on a protest march conducted by university students, trade unionists and others, in Colombo, on Tuesday, against the arrest and detention of some student leaders and political activists under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). Their protest could be considered the beginning of another wave of agitations.

The police, deployed in large numbers, blocked the path of the protesters, who opted for an alternative route, and dispersed them by using water cannon and tear gas liberally. More than two dozen protesters were arrested. The government’s message to its opponents is loud and clear: it will do everything in its power to neutralize agitations, and those who defy its fiat run the risk of prosecution. But protesters have proved that they are made of sterner stuff.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation and the subsequent political changes, with Ranil Wickremesinghe securing the presidency, apparently led to a let-up in protests. The Galle Face protesters caved in and withdrew as police pressure mounted. It was thought that the government was in control of the situation and political stability was returning, at long last. But there was something eerie in the air, and the lull in street protests looked like the proverbial calm before the storm. Trouble is brewing again.

Tuesday’s protest march was not as big as the previous ones that rendered the police and the military helpless, but the fact that the anti-government protesters are taking to the streets again despite hostile police/military action presages trouble for the government. Crackdowns will only strengthen the protesters’ resolve to fight on. Nobody likes to be beaten up, arrested and remanded, and this holds true for protesters as well, but they collectively do not consider their agitations complete without water cannon and tear gas attacks, baton charges and arrests, which make headlines.

Public resentment, which is jet fuel for anti-government protests, is welling up rapidly due to a sharp drop in people’s real income, and various shortages and the resultant hardships. The causes of social unrest that led to popular uprisings and the ouster of President Rajapaksa are far from eliminated.

The cost of living will increase further due to massive hikes in electricity and water tariffs, and their political fallout will kick in soon. Fuel prices are also extremely high. The government claims that high fuel prices, grain shortages, and increasing food inflation are global issues, which have been worsened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but many other countries have the wherewithal to cushion the blow from escalating prices whereas Sri Lankans are without any tangible relief as such. Sri Lanka would have faced the present crisis even if Russia had not invaded Ukraine; its problems are mostly due to economic mismanagement over many years.

The interim budget has promised cash handouts amounting to Rs. 10,000 each to vulnerable sections of society, but this amount is woefully inadequate, given the rate at which inflation is increasing. The country is facing a rupee crisis as well, and the new welfare measures will necessitate more money printing, which brings about currency devaluation and increases inflation. Excessive money printing during the Covid-19 pandemic for cash handouts by way of relief was one of the main reasons for the current economic meltdown.

Many people are skipping meals. “Around 6.3 million people in Sri Lanka are food insecure. That means they are not able to access nutritious diet on a regular basis, out of which around 5.3 million people are either reducing meals or skipping meals,” Abdur Rahim Siddiqui, the World Food Programme’s Sri Lanka Country Director, has said in a recent interview with VOA. UNICEF has revealed that child malnutrition is on the rise and stressed the need to look after the poor. The World Bank has ranked Sri Lanka fifth among the ten countries with the highest food inflation in the world.

The government’s privatization drive, which is aimed at fulfilling a main condition for IMF assistance, is fraught with the danger of triggering trade union protests and even strikes, which will make economic recovery even more difficult. The workers of state institutions earmarked for divestiture, such as the Ceylon Electricity Board and the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, have already threatened stern action to defeat the government move.

The government is trying to have the public on its side by speaking ill of the CEB and the CPC workers, whom it is apparently trying to make out to be a bunch of freeloaders. Trade unionists have struck back, and a crippling showdown may not be far off. The government is not handling its privatization programme tactfully.

The National Fuel Pass, which has prevented hoarding, seemed to work in that it helped get rid of petrol/diesel queues, which led to clashes at filling stations and contributed to political instability. But it is of no use when fuel supplies are not replenished regularly, as is the case at present. The QR code, however, is effective and has to be retained.

Fossil fuel, which is highly inflammable, has to be handled with care if conflagrations are to be prevented. Similarly, fuel shortages could prove equally destructive; they cause economic problems and spark social and political unrest if allowed to persist. One of the main reasons why people rose against the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government was its failure to make fuel freely available. Cooking gas, kerosene, petrol and diesel were in short supply for months on end, with no prospect of the supplies of them being restored. The situation took a turn for the worse due to the escalating prices of essential commodities, which also became scarce. People took to the streets, demanding solutions and relief. Gotabaya had to leave the country and send in his resignation letter from there.

Pumps have run dry at most filling stations, and long lines of vehicles are ubiquitous. The government keeps making contradictory statements about fuel availability, and the Opposition and CPC trade unions accuse it of importing low-quality crude oil for the Sapugaskanda oil refinery, whose petrol and diesel yields, which help build buffer stocks, have dropped drastically as a result. The Opposition has also alleged that the government is buying Russian crude oil at prices higher than those in the world market and a third party is enriching itself at the expense of consumers. Former Minister of Power and Energy Champika Ranawaka, MP, has written to President Wickremesinghe, calling for a probe into this serious allegation.

Unless fuel supplies are restored urgently, public transport is likely to grind to a halt again. People will not be able to travel to work, and it will not be possible to transport essential commodities. Exports, and what remains of tourism will also be adversely affected. Schools will have to be closed again. If what is feared comes to pass, people will take to the streets before long despite coercive methods the government has adopted to deal with protesters.

Political stability is a prerequisite for economic recovery, and, at the same time, it is well-nigh impossible to restore political and social order without economic stability. Thus, the government finds itself in a catch-22 situation while the country is coming under a pall of social unrest.