A unity govt. in the offing or another false dawn?

There has been much talk about an all-party government, which was expected to be formed shortly after the election by the parliament of Ranil Wickremesinghe as the President on July 20. But there are no signs of it becoming a reality anytime soon. In fact, it was one of President Wickremesinghe’s main promises to the public as well as the parliament. He undertook to form a national unity government first thing after securing the presidency, and make all stakeholders partners in governance. The idea of a national government caught on, as clashes between the SLPP administration and the Opposition brought about political instability, which took a heavy toll on efforts being made to revive the economy.

All political parties save the JVP agreed in principle to the idea of a unity government, and they have had several rounds of talks with President Wickremesinghe. The people were given to understand that the formation of the promised national unity administration was imminent. Even the Marxist parties which otherwise do not see eye to eye with capitalist UNP on virtually anything expressed their willingness to consider joining a national government albeit with some caveats and pre-conditions. Perhaps, public disillusionment with the entire political system and popular uprisings may have prompted them to do so. But they lost interest in the proposed political project, later on, and are at one another’s throat again.

One of the conditions that the SLPP dissidents have put forth for extending their support to the proposed national government is that it has to be essentially an interim arrangement, and a tentative date for an early general election should be announced. They and the JVP agree that the government is trying to complete its full term with the help of other political parties by means of a power sharing arrangement. They are also of the view that the government is planning to engineer crossover from the SLFP, SJB and some Tamil political parties, appoint defectors to the Cabinet and make the government out to be an all-party administration.  

Only the SLFP and the SJB seem somewhat serious about forming an all-party government. They are not acting out of principle or any concern for the country, though; they are only making a virtue of necessity. Now that President Wickremesinghe has apparently consolidated his position as the President, the SLFP and the SJB are aware that he will go all out to revitalize the UNP at their expense. They have already lost several MPs each to the government, and the dissidents who sided with President Wickremesinghe have been rewarded with ministerial posts. There is the possibility of more SLFP and SJB MPs switching their allegiance to the President, and this is something leaders of the two parties—former President Maithripala Sirisena and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa—are desperate to prevent. The only way they could do so is to be part of the unity administration to be formed. If they join forces with the government, there will be no need for the latter to engineer crossovers, or at least they seem to think so.

The chances of President Wickremesinghe agreeing to an ‘interim’ government are slim, for the SLPP does not want a snap general election because its approval ratings are extremely low. The SLPP is all out to have a section in the 19th Amendment incorporated into the draft 22nd Amendment Bill to prevent the President from being in a position to dissolve the parliament inMarch 2023, when the government will have completed the constitutionally-stipulated two–and–a–half years of its term; it is seeking to prevent the President from holding a general election at least until early 2025 in the hope that will be able to turn things around by that time. Thus, a coming together of the SLPP dissidents and the government is no more than a remote possibility, as things stand.

Sirisena has said the SLFP will extend its support for the government for the sake of the people, without accepting any ministerial posts. But politicians are an ambitious lot, and some more SLFP MPs are likely to join the Cabinet of the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government or become state/deputy ministers. A section has been inserted into the 22nd Amendment Bill to provide for the expansion of the Cabinet in the event of a national government being formed. The stage is thus being made for a jumbo Cabinet.

The SJB emerged strong by eating into the UNP’s vote bank. If Wickremesinghe had not become the President, the SJB would have been able to thrive further at the expense of the UNP. But today the boot is on the other foot. The SJB is raking the government and President Wickremesinghe over the coals for what it calls the systematic suppression of people’s rights. Its leader Premadasa never misses an opportunity to flay the government and reiterate his commitment to defending democracy. But there is no way the SJB can escape from the harsh political reality; some more of its MPs are likely to break ranks ahead of the next Cabinet reshuffle, when the number of ministers is expected to be increased to accommodate defectors in the Cabinet. So, the SJB is likely to be left with no alternative but to heed the axiom: “If you can’t beat them, join them.” The SLFP may have to do likewise for its own sake.

In politics, however, more often than not, predictions could be wide of the mark. Many political observers hastened to write off the UNP after its humiliating defeat in 2020, and predicted that the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa would serve two terms. But the UNP, which was left for dead, has made a comeback owing to a political freak. Nobody was able to predict the dramatic turn of events that took place between March 31, when protesters surrounded President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s private resident at Mirihana, and July 14, when he tendered his resignation letter due to public protests against him, and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe became the Acting President before being elected President by Parliament six days later.

President Wickremesinghe and the government seem to be in control of the situation at present, having put the anti-government protesters on the defensive. But if they fail to ensure a reliable oil and electricity supply and arrest inflation, which is fast increasing, people will take to the streets again with or without political parties and other organizations to lead them. The World Bank has ranked Sri Lanka as the fifth among the ten countries with the highest food inflation in the world. This is certainly bad news for the government, which is struggling to prevent public protests. If another wave of protests occurs, the government will face the same fate as the Gotabaya administration. Needless to say, both the SLPP and the UNP will be in serious trouble in such an eventuality. This may be one of the reasons why the Opposition parties have chosen to tread cautiously instead of agreeing to join an all-party government. Awaiting game is on, and it is too early to say whether the promised unity government will be a reality or another false dawn.